Only three teams in LaLiga have conceded more than Sevilla’s average of 1.9 goals conceded per 90 in away fixtures this season, and Manchester United can expect a repeat of the 4-1 thrashing that they dished out in the first leg of their last 16 clash with Real Betis at Old Trafford only a few weeks ago.

Sevilla have found respite in European football this season, but that has not extended to their fixtures on the road. You’d have to go all the way back to a Champions League group stage fixture in December 2020 against Rennes to find the last time that they won an away fixture in Europe.

The Red Devils, on the other hand, have conceded only eight goals in 15 home games in the Premier League this season, and will be confident of keeping a clean sheet and scoring plenty too to give them a sizeable advantage heading into the return fixture.

Erik Ten Hag’s team have the highest xG in the Europa League at 19.63 this season, with 15 goals to boot, and with 17.34 shots per 90 being the highest by some margin, we can expect this to be another busy evening for Manchester United attackers against a Sevilla side who have kept a clean sheet only twice away from home this season.

As explained above, there is potential for there to be a goal-fest for Manchester United at Old Trafford. 11 out of 14 knock-out ties this season for Ten Hag’s team have ended with over 2.5 goals, with the exceptions coming in the EFL Cup and in the second-leg against Real Betis with the tie already settled.

Manchester United should be optimistic about scoring plenty of goals, just as they did against a far more defensively resolute Real Betis team in the previous round when they put four past Manuel Pellegrini’s team while the Spanish opposition did register one goal in Manchester.

However, we can’t rule out a Sevilla goal. They have scored in 18 out of 22 matches since the World Cup break and have four goals in their two games under Mendilibar, who has got striker Youssef En-Nesyri back in form as the Moroccan international has scored in back-to-back games and now has nine in his last 12.

Antony has scored in his last two Europa League appearances, both against Spanish opposition at Old Trafford, and he will be stepping up his game given the absence of Marcus Rashford in the Manchester United attack on Thursday night.

In addition to those goals, he’s averaging 2.65 shots per 90 in the Europa League this season, with 1.51 of those attempts per 90 being on target. That has only increased in the knock-out stages where Antony has come into his own, with an average of 5.41 shots per 90 and 3.83 on target per 90.

There is every reason to believe that he can keep this up against Sevilla, whose central defence has been a weakness all season long, after they decided to sell both Diego Carlos and Jules Koundé in the same window last summer. Even with Mendilibar’s arrival, Sevilla have still looked chaotic in their own penalty area and Antony will be licking his lips at that. He’ll also love the fact that the Spanish side have given up an average of 1.35 xG against per 90 minutes since they entered the Europa League. They’re the only team left in the tournament with an xG against value above 1.00 per game.

Suppose this game follows the expected pattern, with Manchester United dominating and Sevilla chasing the ball. In that case, we can expect the Spanish side to commit many fouls and to pick up a few bookings along the way.

They have been averaging 2.5 yellows per game since entering the Europa League, which is the eighth-most of any side. On the other hand, Manchester United have received just 1.7 yellows per game, the fourth-fewest of any side.

Disciplinary issues have been a problem for Sevilla all season long, one which hasn’t improved yet under Mendilibar as Sevilla collected two more red cards in their draw with Celta Vigo last weekend, their 10th and 11th red cards of the season across all competitions, on top of their 119 yellows. That’s 3.0 cards per game and that’s got to be a concern for Los Nervionenses going into a stadium like Old Trafford.