Back Mexico to hit the ground running with a win over South Africa on Thursday night. El Tri won the 2025 Gold Cup last summer and have been ticking along nicely since then.

In fact, Mexico are unbeaten in eight friendly matches since the turn of the year, winning six of them, the most impressive of which saw them thrash Serbia 5-1 last Friday. Therefore, Javier Aguirre’s side will head into this curtain-raiser brimming with confidence, and a passionate home crowd can spur them on to victory.

As for South Africa, they look the weakest side on paper in Group A and notably lost two of their four matches at the Africa Cup of Nations earlier this year. Since then, Bafana Bafana have failed to win any of their subsequent four friendlies, which does little to inspire confidence ahead of the cauldron that awaits them at the Mexico City Stadium.

Not only am I expecting Mexico to win on Thursday night, but I also fancy them to score at least a couple of goals en route to victory.

Javier Aguirre’s side put five past Serbia last week and have demonstrated their attacking firepower throughout the year, as they also registered multiple goals in friendly wins over Ghana and Iceland. El Tri also netted twice in their Gold Cup final triumph over the USA last July.

South Africa, on the other hand, have looked vulnerable defensively for much of the calendar year. Hugo Broos’ side conceded two goals against both Zimbabwe and Cameroon at the Africa Cup of Nations, while their backline was also breached on multiple occasions in a friendly defeat to Panama at the end of March.

Look for Julian Quinones to register a minimum of one shot on target on Thursday night. The Mexican winger is a player who likes to try his luck in front of goal at any given opportunity.

That is underlined by the fact that Quinones has averaged a whopping 4.46 shots per game across his last four appearances for his country. In terms of his shots on target output, the 29-year-old worked the opposition goalkeeper during last week’s 5-1 thrashing of Serbia, while he also registered two on-target efforts against Belgium earlier this year.

Those trends have also been evident on the domestic scene this season, with Quinones averaging 4.46 shots per 90 and 1.94 shots on target per game for club side Al-Qadsiah.

I’m keen to back Raul Jimenez to commit two or more fouls. The Mexico forward leads the line with plenty of aggression and physicality, which often results in him getting on the wrong side of the referee.

As one of the co-hosts, Mexico haven’t had any competitive fixtures for some time, but that hasn’t stopped Jimenez from picking up fouls at a steady rate. Across his three friendly appearances in 2026, he has averaged 1.45 fouls per game for Mexico. Notably, the veteran forward was penalised on no fewer than three occasions against Serbia last week, despite only featuring for the opening hour of the match.

That trend has also been evident at club level. During the recently concluded Premier League season, Jimenez averaged 1.88 fouls per 90 for Fulham, being penalised at least twice in four of his final six starts of the campaign.

I’m more than happy to back Lyle Foster to be fouled at least once on Thursday night.

The Burnley forward is expected to lead the line for South Africa, meaning he should come in for plenty of close attention from Mexico’s centre-backs. Foster was fouled a combined total of three times across his four appearances at this year’s Africa Cup of Nations.

The 25-year-old also drew free kicks on a relatively consistent basis in the most recent Premier League season. In fact, Foster was fouled an average of 0.92 times per game for Burnley in the English top-flight this term, which only strengthens the case for him to earn his side a minimum of one free-kick here.

What’s more, Mexico’s expected centre-back pairing of Cesar Montes and Johan Vazquez have committed respective averages of 1.01 and 1.66 fouls per game over their last four appearances for their country.

Raul Jimenez undoubtedly represents Mexico’s biggest attacking threat, and I think he looks well placed to either score or assist against South Africa on Thursday night. The 35-year-old forward has racked up a quietly impressive return of 45 goals in 126 appearances for his country, alongside 16 assists for good measure.

The most recent of those goals came against Serbia last week, meaning he has now scored 10 times on the international stage since the beginning of 2025. It should also be noted that the experienced frontman found the net in last year’s Gold Cup triumph, underlining his knack for delivering in big moments on the biggest occasions.

The fact that Jimenez registered 12 goal involvements across his 36 appearances for Fulham in the Premier League last season adds further weight to siding with this selection.

Johan Vazquez appeals to register one or more shots on target on Thursday night.

The Mexico defender has been testing opposition goalkeepers with impressive regularity in recent times. In fact, the 27-year-old has scored in each of his last two appearances for Mexico, including last week’s 5-1 demolition of Serbia.

Looking further back, Vazquez has also hit the target in friendlies against both South Korea and Uruguay during the second half of 2025. He also got himself on the scoresheet for club side Genoa against AC Milan on the penultimate weekend of the recently concluded Serie A season.

That attacking threat from defence is difficult to ignore, and with Mexico expected to take the more front-foot approach here, Vazquez should again have opportunities to threaten from set-piece situations on Thursday night.

Lyle Foster looks too big to ignore when attempting two or more shots. He is likely to spearhead South Africa’s attack on Thursday night, so he should have ample opportunity to register at least two efforts on goal.

Moreover, Foster fired two or more shots in three of his four appearances at AFCON earlier this year, including four against Cameroon and three against Angola. The Burnley forward has since delivered at least two attempts in South Africa’s friendlies against both Panama and Nicaragua.

Foster also averaged 1.31 shots per game in the Premier League last season. That return is far from poor when you factor in that he was playing in a struggling Burnley side, with a number of his appearances coming from the substitute bench.

Back Teboho Mokoena to commit two or more fouls on Thursday night. The all-action South African midfielder is likely to find himself right in the thick of the midfield battle in this Group A opener.

Mokoena’s combative streak was on full display at the Africa Cup of Nations earlier this year, where he racked up a combined total of seven fouls across his four appearances. South Africa have since played Panama in a pair of friendlies, with Mokoena overstepping the mark on multiple occasions in each of those two fixtures.

He also featured at last summer’s Club World Cup for Mamelodi Sundowns, where he gave away two free kicks against Fluminense despite featuring for just 46 minutes.

Mokoena could find himself operating in similar areas of the pitch to Mexico wonderkid Gilberto Mora, who has drawn a sizeable average of 5.10 fouls per game across his last three international appearances.