💎 Gem Bet: Julian Quinones - 1+ Fouls Committed @ 2.00 (bet365)

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Julian Quinones is set to line up on the left wing for Mexico in their opening game of the tournament and is very generously priced to commit a single foul.

He played off the left in Mexico’s final warm-up game before the tournament against Serbia, a match they won 5-1 with Quinones committing two fouls.

Mexico committed 12 fouls overall in that game, seven more than Serbia despite being the more dominant side throughout the contest. This suggests that the host nation will be quite aggressive in their matches, even if they end up controlling most games. 

Quinones’ foul record during the 25/26 Saudi Pro League season wasn’t too standout (0.59 per 90), but he was playing as a striker for most of the campaign so he has very different tactical instructions when lining up for his national side.

Mexico like to send their fullbacks very high, with their wingers often tucking into more central pockets which is great for backing Quinones for a foul here as it widens his pool of potential opponents, all of which have promising records when it comes to winning fouls:

Kamogelo Sebelebele - 1.57 fouls won per 90 (Winger) 
Thabang Matuludi - 1.94 fouls won per 90 (Fullback) 
Teboho Mokoena - 1.45 fouls won per 90 (Midfielder) 

Quinones’ final full season in Mexico was during the 23/24 campaign. He started 18 games that year, committing 24 fouls across those matches (1.40 per 90). 

His foul average in the Saudi Pro League last season also sat at 0.88 fouls per 90, suggesting that the forward is far more aggressive than his most recent foul numbers suggest. 

There’s also promising data across his recent matches for Mexico. There’s obviously no qualifying data as they’re one of the host nations, but Quinones committed three fouls across his three appearances at the most recent Copa America (1.06 per 90), adding further evidence to suggest that he will commit at least one foul here. 

Furthermore, one of the more significant stats from South Africa’s qualifying campaign is how many fouls they won. Hugo Broos’ side averaged 13.78 fouls won per 90 across their qualifying matches, offering the perfect opening opponent for Mexico and Quinones to commit fouls.

There’s also significant value in backing Quinones to commit 2+ fouls here. You can get 6.50 for that outcome compared to 2.25 with other major bookmakers, further confirming that Quinones is overpriced in the foul market for this World Cup opener.

There’s clear value when taking this angle with Bet365, Quinones is priced as short as 1.25 with other major bookmakers to commit a foul in this clash.