💎 Gem Bet: Julian Quinones - 1+ Fouls Committed @ 2.00 (bet365)

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Julian Quinones is set to line up on the left wing for Mexico in their opening game of the tournament and is very generously priced to commit a single foul.

He played off the left in Mexico’s final warm-up game before the tournament against Serbia, a match they won 5-1 with Quinones committing two fouls.

Mexico committed 12 fouls overall in that game, seven more than Serbia despite being the more dominant side throughout the contest. This suggests that the host nation will be quite aggressive in their matches, even if they end up controlling most games. 

Quinones’ foul record during the 25/26 Saudi Pro League season wasn’t too standout (0.59 per 90), but he was playing as a striker for most of the campaign so he has very different tactical instructions when lining up for his national side.

Mexico like to send their fullbacks very high, with their wingers often tucking into more central pockets which is great for backing Quinones for a foul here as it widens his pool of potential opponents, all of which have promising records when it comes to winning fouls:

Kamogelo Sebelebele - 1.57 fouls won per 90 (Winger) 
Thabang Matuludi - 1.94 fouls won per 90 (Fullback) 
Teboho Mokoena - 1.45 fouls won per 90 (Midfielder) 

There’s also significant value in backing Quinones to commit 2+ fouls here. You can get 6.50 for that outcome compared to 2.25 with other major bookmakers, further confirming that Quinones is overpriced in the foul market for this World Cup opener.

There’s clear value when taking this angle with Bet365, Quinones is priced as short as 1.25 with other major bookmakers to commit a foul in this clash.