Brann v Sandnes
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Monday 16th May – 5:00PM KO
Brann are one of the biggest clubs in Norwegian football and their relegation from the Eliteserien last season was considered a big shock. It also happened back in 2014 and on that occasion the Bergen outfit bounced back immediately. The same is expected this season where they are red hot favourites to win the 2nd tier OBOS Ligaen. The club stayed faithful to manager Eirik Horneland, who only a few years ago was in charge of Rosenborg. Brann remain unbeaten after five games and have scored the most goals in the league (14) out of any team. It is interesting to note that both of their two home games have ended 1-1 draws vs Sogndal and Asane. Brann are very well supported but sometimes the pressure applied by their own fans can be a hindrance. A huge crowd of over 15,000 is expected for this May 16th match and this attendance will be bigger than most games at Eliteserien level! Brann can surely use this to their advantage. There are some players in this squad such as midfield captain Sivert Heltne Nilsen and defender Fredrik Knudsen who are far too good for this level of football.
The OBOS Ligen is a mixture of fully professional and semi-professional sides. Sandnes are a professional club and usually one of the fancied teams in this division to do quite well. They have also started the season well with 4 wins in their first 5 games but suffered a terrible 0-4 home defeat to Fredrikstad in the previous round. The key man for them this season has been Striker Martin Ramsland who netted four goals. He has missed both of the last two matches with injury though and it is unknown if he will feature here. Another striker, the experienced Tommy Hoiland has yet to score for the club, but he will surely come good at some stage. Sandnes have an overall xG of 1.31 per game, but that is nothing compared to Brann who top the league with an average xG of 1.89 per 90 mins.
Both teams will be fired up for this match and I am expecting Brann to win fairly easily. Sandnes are not a bad outfit by any means, but Brann have the extra quality and class. They could be quite formidable in a fixture like this on May 16th with a huge crowd behind them. The best pick, and what looks to be an excellent selection is for Brann to score over 1.5 goals. Their average xG is 1.89 per 90 mins, which increases to 2.18 in home games. Somehow, they only drew both their home games 1-1 so surely more goals will be coming soon. They can definitely find the net at least twice here, and it would not be a surprise to see them fire 3 or 4 past Sandnes.
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Prediction: Over 1.5 Brann Goals, 1.44 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)
Fredrikstad v Skied
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Monday 16th May – 5:00PM KO
Currently, the biggest fallen giant in Norwegian football is probably Fredrikstad. It has now been 10 years since they were last seen at Eliteserien level and several of those were spent in the 3rd tier of Norwegian football. An excellent 4th place in the OBOS last season marked a strong rebound though and they only just missed out on promotion via the playoffs. A similar sort of campaign challenging for promotion is expected this season too, although with strong teams such as Brann and Mjøndalen in the league then most fans would be satisfied with a playoff berth. The team, known in shorter terms as FFK have only lost once so far this season and hammered Sandnes 4-0 away from home in the previous round. They have players in their squad such as Thomas Drage and Nicolay Solberg who would be worthy of featuring at Eliteserien level. FFK have an average xG of 1.67 per game which is the third highest in the league.
Travelling here are a Skeid side who have lost all five fixtures so far. Every single match has been lost by an exact one goal margin, with three of those scores exactly 2-3. It has been difficult for them upon their promotion to the OBOS Ligaen. Skied are only a semi-professional club and the gulf in class at this level can be quite big sometimes. With an average xGA of 1.37 per game they legitimately have one of the worst defences in the division and this is their big problem – conceding goals. It was never going to be easy for a team who reportedly have the lowest budget in the entire league. Right back Sulayman Bojang on loan from Haugesund is probably one of the most important members in the squad but hasn’t featured in 2 of the last 3 games due to injury concerns. A positive for Skeid is that they have scored in 4 of their 5 games but clearly, they don’t seem capable of outscoring sides at this level due to their terrible defence.
A full capacity crowd close to 12,000 is expected at Fredrikstad Stadion for this game. This is actually one of the biggest club grounds in the whole of Norway, once again demonstrating the size and untapped potential of this club. FFK should be far too good for Skeid here and win with plenty to spare. It is a surprise to see them as big as 1.50 to prevail. This might not seem huge value but the gulf in class between these two teams is quite vast. There are several ways to play the game from a betting perspective but a simple Fredrikstad to win straight on the nose looks like the obvious selection.
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Prediction: Fredrikstad to Win, 1.50 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)
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