Chesterfield v Scunthorpe United
I’m backing Chesterfield to complete a Christmas double over down-on-their-luck Scunthorpe United.
This is a similar approach to my selection on Boxing Day. A 2-1 victory meant that Chesterfield have now scored two or more in 17 of their 22 league matches this season and in six of their last seven. They have failed to score at all just won this campaign, have scored in all 11 home fixtures and two or more in nine of those. They have scored two or more in all six matches played against the bottom six. Their depth remains fantastic – they were able to bring Ollie Banks off the bench and leave Kabongo Tshimanga and Akwasi Asante as unused substitutes last time out.
For the first time this season, Scunthorpe United look to have an idea of what they want to do on the pitch. The problem is that they lack quality and athleticism. While Alfie Beestin and Caolan Lavery are showing signs of a partnership at the top end of the pitch, they are otherwise stuck with a group either at the start or towards the end of their careers and legs are difficult to find. Furthermore, goalkeeper Owen Foster was injured on Boxing Day. Scunthorpe have lost seven of their 12 away matches, have picked up two points from a possible 42 against top 14 opposition, conceding two or more in 12 of those matches, and have conceded two or more in 17 of their 24 league fixtures this term.
Woking v Aldershot Town
I’m often weary of backing a derby fixture but this game sways favourably in the direction of Woking.
The Cards sit fourth in the table and have been excellent, their brand of high energy, aggressive football working well. They have won seven of their last ten matches, coming from behind in both draws and being the better side in defeat against York City, which coincided with a managerial change. They have won seven of their 12 home matches this term and all seven matches against bottom seven sides, which includes near rivals Aldershot Town.
Ross McNeilly had a bright start to life in the Aldershot Town hot seat but there’s no denying that it’s a tough gig. His side are generally youthful and naive, evidenced by Corey Jordan giving away a penalty and scoring an own goal in the reverse fixture, and they remain relegation candidates. It doesn’t help when you have limited options, McNeilly only have two senior options on his bench on Boxing Day, one of whom has yet to muster a run of games due to injury. Aldershot have lost eight of the 11 matches played against top half sides this season, including all four away fixtures – and they’ve failed to score in those.
Yeovil Town v Torquay United
A battle of two managers with plenty of EFL and non-league experience takes place on New Year’s Day and I’m backing Mark Cooper over Gary Johnson.
With the ongoing off-field issues, Mark Cooper looked a steady appointment for Yeovil Town, a big enough name for fans to get behind and an experienced head to navigate tricky waters. The ex-Swindon Town and Forest Green Rovers boss remains unbeaten in his early tenure, overseeing two wins and four draws, conceding just two goals. That record becomes eight points from four home matches and one goal conceded. They lacked a focal point in the reverse fixture and rectified that with a double substitution at half-time, seeing them score the equaliser and have more influence on proceedings. Expect a change to the starting XI to be made here.
Gary Johnson must be ruing his luck. He will come into this game (injured unless stated otherwise) without left-backs Dan Martin and Ben Wyatt, centre-backs Dean Moxey, Lucas Ness (recalled) and Mark Ellis and right-back Dylan Crowe (suspended). It leaves Johnson with three defenders available, all of whom he has tried replacing this season due to simply not rating them highly enough. Two of those will likely start here with central midfielders Shaun Donnellan (centre-back) and Ryan Hanson (right wing-back) and inside forward Stephen Wearne (left wing-back) completing the back five. And because two central midfielders will be part of the back five, they will only have one natural central midfielder in central midfield. Square pegs, round holes.
As if the selection issues aren’t bad enough, the Gulls are abysmal on the road, losing eight of their 12 matches, scoring just seven goals in those matches and being comfortably second best in the games they have got results in (22 shots to 100 in four matches). They have the worst xG for and xG against away from home, accruing shy of 0.9 goals per game and conceding over 2.2.
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