Brighton average 4.88 shots on target per game at home in the Premier League, with an impressively consistent output. They’ve hit 4+ SOTs in 15 of their 17 home games this season, and 18 of 22 overall, underlining their attacking intent at the AmEx.

Newcastle, meanwhile, concede 4.65 shots on target per away game, and although only 10 of 17 opponents have reached the 4+ mark, six of the seven who failed rank in the bottom eight for home SOT averages. Brighton’s more potent attack at home strongly favours this line.

This matchup features two sides that thrive in wide areas and use the flanks to generate chances, naturally leading to corners. Brighton’s home matches average 9.59 corners per game, with 9+ corners landing in 12 of their last 16 at the AmEx in the league. Newcastle’s away games average 10.47 corners, with 9+ corners landing in 11 of 17—a number that further strengthens the case. Historically, this fixture trends the same way as their last three meetings have produced 11, 13, and 12 corners, all comfortably clearing this line.

Livramento’s elusiveness and dual-role flexibility (LB/RB) make him a persistent problem for opposing wide men. He averages 1.15 fouls drawn per 90 and has drawn 2+ fouls in 5 of his last 9 starts.

He’s also got form against Brighton—drawing 2 fouls in the FA Cup clash and one in the reverse, where he played on the opposite flank. The Seagulls’ right-hand side has committed 22 fouls in their last 9 league games (2.44/game), creating a favourable path for Livramento to draw contact once again.

Mitoma’s attacking instincts often leave him exposed defensively, and this is reflected in his disciplinary numbers. He’s averaging 1.25 fouls per 90 and has committed at least one in five consecutive starts, including 2 or more in three of those.

In the reverse fixture, he committed two fouls in just 30 minutes off the bench, highlighting how vulnerable he is when forced to track back. With Newcastle fielding Harvey Barnes and Livramento on his side, two players who draw fouls consistently, Mitoma is very likely to commit again.

A match with high stakes and firepower on both sides feels destined for goals.

Brighton have scored in 13 of 17 home games, averaging 1.53 goals per game at the AmEx, while conceding 1.35 per match—a rate that highlights their vulnerability at the back. They’ve managed just 3 clean sheets at home (18%), and BTTS has landed in 71% of their home fixtures as a result. Newcastle’s away form is more volatile than at St James’s Park. Their goal difference drops from +19 at home to just +2 away, and they’ve kept only 5 clean sheets on the road—all against teams with lower home-scoring outputs than Brighton. Importantly, they’ve scored in 14 of 17 away games.

The fixture itself supports the trend too with BTTS landing in five of the last six meetings between the two, and with both clubs pushing hard for European places, goals at both ends look a logical outcome.

While this may appear a straightforward selection, it's backed by consistent end-product and positional reliance. Isak has contributed 28 goals this season (22G, 6A), making him Newcastle’s leading attacking outlet by some distance. He's been directly involved in 3 goals in his last 4 appearances (2G, 1A), underlining his continued form during the run-in.

With Champions League qualification on the line, Newcastle will lean on their talisman again. Whether it's his sharp movement, composure in front of goal, or his ability to link play, Isak is involved in at least a goal every 90 minutes in the Prem—a rate too impactful to ignore.

Rather than the safer “Score or Assist” market, Mitoma is worth backing outright to score, given the current momentum and team situation. The Japanese winger has found the net in back-to-back league games—both off the bench—and is now chasing a third consecutive league goal for the first time in his career.

Despite missing some games throughout the campaign, Mitoma still sits as Brighton’s joint second-highest league scorer (9 goals). With João Pedro suspended, Mitoma is primed to reclaim his starting role, and against a Newcastle side that concedes 1.47 goals per away match, he has a strong chance to break his scoring duck against the Magpies.

Expected to start amid Brighton’s injury-depleted midfield, Wieffer enters a high-pressure clash that plays directly into his fouling tendencies. He’s averaging 1.91 fouls per 90, and while yet to commit 2+ in a single game, this matchup could force his hand.

He’ll be tasked with containing Newcastle’s left-sided duo of Harvey Barnes (1.05 fouls drawn per 90) and Tino Livramento (1.15)—both strong 1v1 threats. If Brighton lose control in midfield or are exposed in transitions, Wieffer’s reactive nature may lead to cheap fouls stacking up quickly.

This might seem an unconventional pick, but stylistically, this is a matchup that suits Bruno’s more adventurous side. While not known as a volume shooter, he's managed 2+ shots in two of his last three starts, and in three of his last four he's attempted at least one effort.

Against Brighton, he’s been similarly assertive: 2 shots in the reverse fixture, and another attempt as a substitute earlier this season, where he is averaging 1.85 shots per 90 minutes against them this season. Away from home, he's managed at least one shot in 4 of his last 6. At a big price, this prop offers value for a midfielder with license to roam in transition and break forward in space.