After a slow start to the season, Bristol Rovers have taken seven points from a possible nine, keeping three clean sheets in the process since changing formation to back four.

Those wins came against Grimsby Town and Cambridge United, who have both made starts sufficient to see them in the top half of the table. The draw came at home to Oldham and has been cited as a template for their turn of fortunes, after losing their opening three games.

Newport started the season ok, but have now lost four games in a row, and all deservedly looking at the xG figures. There are form lines too with Bristol Rovers, with Newport having lost to both Grimsby and Cambridge who Rovers beat. Rovers' recent wins have been tight, so I want the draw on our side too.

Bristol Rovers have been shown the 4th most cards in League Two so far this season, collecting 15 yellow cards and one red in six games. This tally is quite a lot higher than Newport’s, who have only been shown nine yellow cards, and are yet to see a red.

The Gas seem to be particularly incurring the wrath of the referee away from home, having been shown three, four and four cards, perhaps pointing to an emphasis being put on stopping the other team playing on home turf.

At home through three games, Newport have only picked up a single card in each game.

Ellis Harrison has started the last two games for Bristol Rovers, which coincided with their first two wins of the season, so he should be in line for another start here. He has started four games in total, taking 10 shots in the process, three of which hit the target. He has covered this bet in two out of four starts.

Whilst Newport were able to keep Cole Stockton of Salford quiet, both Notts County and MK Dons central striker were able to register shots, with Matthew Dennis and Callum Paterson both testing the goalkeeper twice.

Newport have faced MK Dons, Salford City and Notts County so far at home, with two of the three games covering this bet, and the other one goal shy. They have the 4th highest xGA figure at 9.8, having not being able to keep a clean sheet in any game so far.

Bristol Rovers have only scored four goals in League One so far, but their xG of 7.8 is the 8th highest in the division, with only Oldham having a bigger negative differential between xG and actual goals.

As covered in the first bet builder, two out of three opposition central strikers have visited Rodney Parade this season and registered two shots on target, and I see no reason why Ellis Harrison is not able to do the same.

The former Wales youth international is unlikely to play the full 90, but should manage at least an hour, but in all seven games he’s featured in this season he has attempted a shot.

Whilst he has only managed a shot on target in two of them, I expect Rovers to create a higher quality of chance against a poor Newport side.

Josh McEachran, once earmarked as an England star of the future when a youth player at Chelsea, has never hit the heights expected of him, but through an injury troubled career, has still managed over 350 career appearances.

He finds himself at the base of midfield for Bristol Rovers in League Two, the first time he has played in the fourth tier in his career. He has started every league game and is entrusted with setting the tempo, but obviously his position on the field means he has defensive responsibilities too.

He is averaging 1.9 fouls per 90 so far this campaign, and has been shown two yellow cards in the process.

As you can probably tell, I think Harrison will be a main character in this game, and I think that might also stretch to catching the referees attention. 

He is yet to be shown a card this season, but is a nuisance to defenders, and like McEachran he is averaging 1.9 fouls per 90. Last season when playing for Walsall and MK Dons, he averaged 2.4 fouls per 90, and 2.3 per 90 in League Two the season before for MK Dons, so he consistently averages around two fouls per game - which generally will involve at least a talking to by the referee.

If Rovers can get in front, we may see Harrison make a few cynical fouls to help break the game up.