New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
The second NFC Wild Card matchup sees the New York Giants after their surprising season, travel to the cold of Minnesota to face an electric Vikings offence. Minnesota have been one of the more worrying 13 win teams I’ve seen in the NFL in recent years but have all the weapons to overcome their weak defence. Dalvin Cook, TJ Hockenson and especially Justin Jefferson, the likely Offensive Player of the Year will be on show on Sunday night.
The Giants also have offensive weapons, such as Saquon Barkley, one of the most widely hyped prospects out of college when he was taken with the second pick in the 2018 draft. If you’re new to the NFL just watch a highlight video of Saquon in college at Penn State, I can guarantee it will have you hooked in minutes. His change of pace is electric and combined with a revitalised Daniel Jones, the Giants have been able to surge to the play-offs unexpectedly.
This game has been tipped as a possible upset by most with 49% of the tickets on the Giants +3 and 41% of the money sprinkled on the Giants to win outright at the time of writing. This game was won by the Vikings on Christmas Eve with a last second field goal and I expect another close shootout on Sunday Night. Hopefully a thriller for the neutral.
How do you guard Justin Jefferson? Another electric college prospect, featuring in arguably the greatest college offence of all time, the 2019 LSU Tigers. Joe Burrow and Jamarr Chase lead the offence alongside Jefferson with the former pair both taken in the top 5 by the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have reached the Super Bowl making that pair worth it but Jefferson has arguably had the most individual success.
Leading the league in receiving yards, Jefferson had an outside shot at being the first ever wide receiver to reach 2000 receiving yards in a season. Kicking off the season with a 184 yards performance he set the tone for his OPOY calibre season, torching the Packers. He closed 2022 with 223, 123 and 133 yard performance, with the last coming against the Giants themselves.
Thankfully for us, Jefferson was held to 15 and 38 yards in two throwaway games to close the season, meaning the bookies have his line at under 3 figures. Jefferson has gone over 100 yards 10 times and over this line 11 times this season. In a playoff game, where the Giants secondary is healthy and can lock up Thielen and Hockenson, Kirk Cousins should lean on Jefferson more than ever. Watch his catch on 4th and 18 against the Bills if you want to show why Jefferson can make plays out of nothing.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON ASDGJSKDNFGKSDF;K
📺: #MINvsBUF on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/uRjde5F169 pic.twitter.com/sxiLVx0NCi— NFL (@NFL) November 13, 2022
Oh yeah, this kid can find the endzone quite regularly as well, like he did against the Giants on Christmas Eve. 8 touchdowns leads the Vikings, with T.J. Hockenson finishing second with 6.
Standing at 6ft 1, J Jettas combines his electric pace with his dominant physique to overcome most if not all cornerbacks in the NFL. 25 receiving touchdowns in his first 3 seasons in 50 games shows how often Jefferson is able to beat his opponent, especially in the RedZone (the final 20 yards of the field).
I have already emphasised how good Jefferson is and against Adoree Jackson’s coming back off injury, he should be able to outlast the Giants secondary. This game will be close, meaning neither side should run the clock out, leading to a pass heavy game. Jefferson should see plenty of the ball from Cousins against a Giants roster who weren’t expected to be anywhere near the playoffs.
Pick number 6 in the 2019 Draft, Daniel Jones has been extremely underwhelming his first few seasons in the NFL. However, new Head Coach, Brian Daboll has brought the best out of the former Duke QB. Hired to the Giants having been the offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills, Daboll is arguably in the best spot to help Jones through the playoffs with coaching experience. His QB at Buffalo, Josh Allen, had 9 passing touchdowns in two playoff games last season.
Now I’m not saying Daniel Jones is anywhere near Josh Allen, but they operate with a similar play style due to their running ability. Jones has finally managed to make progress closer to a starting QB level due to cleaning up his turnovers.
2019: 12 interceptions + 6 fumbles
2020: 10 interceptions + 3 fumbles
2021: 7 interceptions + 2 fumbles
2022: 5 interceptions + 2 fumbles
Maintaining possession of the ball and feeding Barkley should get the Giants in the RedZone more and gives Jones more opportunity to fine the end zone. Richie James and Darius Slayton have showed up in recent games and Jones had 3 wide receivers with 75+ yards against the Vikings last time. Jones threw for 334 yards that game, and 2 touchdowns last time he played. I like his chances of another 2+ Passing TD performance.
Return specialist Richie James, has been a surprising success story for the Giants this season. With the 72m, 4 year signings of Kenny Golladay falling to pieces, it was on other Giants wideouts to step up and James had a career year, going over 500 yards for the first time and over doubling his TD tally.
Following a 27-13 loss to Seattle, Daboll began to lean on James more and more as he racked up 3+ receptions in every game since. Minnesota was his highlight game with 8 receptions on 11 targets for 90 yards. A longest reception of just 33 yards, Richie James is consistent, picking up small chunks of yardage meaning Jones leans on him for the first down.
In three of his last 4 games, James has gone over this number of 52.5. His line started at 49.5 but has gone up due to confidence in him to have another big performance tonight. The Vikings have a superb run defence, yet one of the worst 5 defences in the league. Only points to one thing, a poor pass defence, one James hopes to exploit.
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