Firstly, we go to the Seattle Seahawks, who I think have a chance to really overperform expectations. Schedule makers have the NFC West seeing some of the easiest schedules in football, but I’m not sure any of these teams have enough high-end talent to make teams pay in the playoffs. Because I think the NFC is more susceptible to upsets, I think there is some value on multiple teams in this division to win the conference, but I don't see enough from the 49ers or Cardinals to pull the trigger. To me, the Rams are a ticking time bomb, with quarterback Matthew Stafford dealing with a lingering back injury that is likely to affect him through the season.

The Seattle Seahawks might be the most underrated defense in football. They already have an absolutely shut-down secondary, and with the additions of Nick Emmanwori and Demarcus Lawrence, I think this could be the best single unit in the division. Mike Macdonald proved to be one of the most creative defensive coaches in football with the Ravens. He was just getting started last year, and I think we'll see even more improvement in year two with even more reinforcements to an already top 10 squad.

We just saw Sam Darnold overperform every possible expectation last year, but I’m also not ready to totally give up on him after a bad end to the season. They upgraded the offensive line with a first-round pick and added veteran Cooper Kupp to pair with JSN. They also upgraded at offensive coordinator, with Klint Kubiak putting up some good tape with the Saints last year before Carr got injured and the quarterbacks became unplayable. Sure, they might see a slight downtick from Geno Smith and DK Metcalf, but I don't think it's enough of a drop to warrant the win total falling after a 10-7 season last year. If Kenneth Walker can stay healthy, this team should be an absolute problem on the ground with him and Zach Charbonnet.

The Seahawks have been the face of consistency in the league, not winning fewer than 7 games for an insane 15 years straight. They are currently priced at the bottom of their division, but I really don't think the talent on this roster reflects those odds. Every team in this division will be competitive, but the best value in the betting markets is on the Seahawks this year.

If I were going to be very aggressive in the futures market, I would be much more keen to attack the NFC than the AFC. While you have the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles sitting comfortably at the top, there is a significantly easier path to contention with a less top-heavy division. You have plenty of young, hungry competitors in the NFC, but there is clearly more opportunity here with the competition behind led by QBs like Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy instead of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson. Additionally, teams like the Lions and Commanders possess high-octane offenses, but their deficiencies on defense have led them to be susceptible to losing close games.

One of the teams that can adequately blend good coaching, defense, and offensive upside is the Green Bay Packers. Micah Parsons is likely one of the three best non-quarterbacks in Football. A move like this can't be overstated enough. Additionally, this also shows the Packers have a win-now mindset, sensing the opportunity in the NFC. The Lions just lost their star offensive coordinator and have had some important injuries, while the Vikings and Bears will have to rely on young, inexperienced quarterbacks to take them to the next level.

I already liked this team before the acquisition of Micah Parsons, but that totally takes them to the next level. Rashan Gary was already looking like one of the scariest interior players in the NFL, and now he likely won't see a single double team for the season thanks to the presence of Parsons. Together, the duo has combined for 84.5 sacks the past four seasons. I initially wasn't the biggest fan of the defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, but he grew on me as the season went on, and the addition of an X-factor like Parsons should be the final piece. They already have arguably the best safety in the NFL in Xavier McKinney, and if they can get league-average corner play, then they will likely be a top defense in football.

I expect this to be one of the most competitive divisions in football, with the Bears and Vikings likely going to be in contention until the end of the year. This makes the plus money to win the division much more intriguing than the traditional win total. All these teams should beat up on each other, but with how well-rounded the Packers are, I think they will come out victorious. Matt LaFleur is simply one of the best coaches in football. Last year, he even made Malik Willis look like a real NFL QB, and with a full season of Jordan Love, I think the sky is the limit on offense.

I see the Washington Commanders as by far the most popular “good team to fade” of the offseason, and I fully disagree with that statement. There are two places where Washington is obviously going to see some regression: fourth down conversions and wins in one-score games. Washington was quite literally the most efficient fourth-down team of all time last year, going an insane 20-23 (87%), including 7-8 on 3+ yard conversions. Washington could easily lead the league in this category once again, but Jayden Daniels is unlikely to continue the historic streak.

I think the most overlooked fact about Washington is simple: last season, they were trying to develop, and this season, they are trying to win. While it's easy to forget how the season started, nobody had particularly high expectations for Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. They accidentally stumbled into a playoff spot and ended up beating the Lions despite no preseason expectations whatsoever. They had a first-year coaching staff and quarterback surrounded by fairly mediocre aging talent, and still someone looked like a serious contender. After naturally overperforming expectations, I see why people want to pump the brakes, but maybe that's just what happens when a historically good rookie turns a franchise around, and I would rather be on the Jayden Daniels train than in the way.

Now the offseason mindset shifts, you are no longer a middling bottom-feeder but rather a perennial contender. They added Deebo Samuel and Laramy Tunsil to strengthen the offense, and Javon Kinlaw, Marshon Lattimore, and a couple of rookies to improve the defense. They will likely be below average on defense, but if they can even be average, that would be an improvement considering their bottom-tier performance last season. While the season likely does buckle without Jayden Daniels, Marcus Mariota did look good in limited action last year, and profiles as one of the better backups in football if he is needed to make a couple of emergency starts this season.

I see so many comparisons to CJ Stroud with people calling for regression after a dynamic rookie season, but what do these quarterbacks actually have in common? Daniels is walking into the season with better coaching, offensive weapons, offensive line, and a team that spent all offseason investing in winning, not developing. I'm willing to bet there is just as much of a chance for improvement as there is for regression in year 2 of the Jayden Daniels experience.

The argument I’m making here is pretty simple: Sure, there are reasons to be cautious with the Washington hype train, but I don't think the positives are being evenly weighed with those negatives. For the first time in what feels like a century, Washington has a Super Star quarterback with organizational investment in his success. The Eagles are the only team in the way of Washington making the Super Bowl, and with 10/1 odds, I’m willing to back the Commanders to pay off this pricetag in the long run.