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NFL Play-Offs: Divisional Round Best Bets & Predictions

NFL Play-Offs: Divisional Round Best Bets & Predictions

Thursday 19 January, 20232 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...
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NFL Divisional Round begins Saturday 21st January
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Action starts from 9:30pm
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Live on Sky Sports NFL

What a weekend of Wildcard football that was with so many storylines. The Jags came back from 27-0 down, the Ravens and Dolphins almost shocked the world, the 49ers and Cowboys made easy work of their opponents and the Giants dumped the 3 seed Vikings out. And at the end of it all, we get another 4 games this week, all of which are amazing matchups which could go either way. I have previewed the 4 games, picking out a best bet from each. With such a range of markets, there is plenty of value this weekend in the NFL so let's get straight into things.

What are the Play-Offs and how are the teams decided?

Each team in the NFL plays 17 games per season. 16 teams compete in the American Football Conference (AFC) and 16 teams compete in the National Football Conference (NFC). The divide is important for who makes the playoffs; however, teams can play any of the other 31 teams in the league, not solely the other 15 teams in their conference.

Within these 2 groups of 16, teams are split into 4 groups of 4, called divisions known as the NFC or AFC North, West, South and East. It’s fairly simple to qualify, win your division of 4 and you make the playoffs as one of the top 4 seeded sides based on win total with the best record getting the number 1 seed and a bye through the wildcard round.

As you can see on the graphic above, there are 7 teams on each side, so where do the 5,6, and 7 seeds come from. Teams can qualify for the playoffs through one off three wildcard spots which are awarded to sides who didn’t win their division of 4 but finished with the best record of the rest. In the NFC on the right hand side, the Cowboys, Giants and Seahawks are the wildcards as they had the best 3 records of teams that didn’t finish top of their set of 4 and will each travel to a division winner in the form of the Bucs, Vikings and 49ers.

These 7 teams then compete across 3 rounds in a knockout to win their respective conference and earn the right to represent the AFC or NFC in the Superbowl. One team from each conference meets in the big game for the chance to hoist the Lombardi.

NFL Play-Offs: Divisional Round Predictions & Best Bets

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8) @ 1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)

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Saturday 21st January
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9:30pm start time
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the surprise team in the playoffs having been 2-6 after the Broncos beat them in London. Only the red hot Lions and the Chiefs themselves have beaten Jacksonville on a run that has seen them beat the Ravens, Cowboys and the Chargers. On the other hand, Kansas City are arguably the least surprising team in the playoffs. Turns out this Patrick Mahomes guy they drafted is quite good. They lost Pro Bowl Wide Receiver Tyreek Hill and still posted a league high 496 points with Mahomes coasting to an inevitable MVP. A huge reason Mahomes has been able to play to this level is all pro tight end, Travis Kelce who is having yet another stellar season. Kelce ranks 3rd in receptions, 2nd in touchdown and 8th in receiving yards with 1338, all ridiculous numbers for a tight end, a position who isn’t solely a receiver. His 110 receptions come from 152 targets, even more impressive when only 4 tight ends have over 100 targets this season. This is a phenomenal matchup for Kelce. When the Chiefs won against the Jags in November, Kelce had 6 receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown. He also has playoff experience which is essential as shown by DK Metcalf last week having 100+ yards and a TD against the league’s best defence. In his 15 playoff games, Kelce has 12 touchdowns and averages 86.1 yards per game. The most important stat is that Kelce has had 11 in 11 playoff games with Patrick Mahomes slinging it to him. The Jags average the most yards given up to tight ends and I don’t expect that to change today. Gerald Everett had 109 yards and a touchdown in the same position last week. Kelce will dominate.

*Click drop down arrow to view full bet research

6. New York Giants (10-7-1) @ 1. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

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Sunday 22nd January
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1:15am start time
The bye was a necessity for the Philadelphia Eagles as it’s allowed Jalen Hurts to recover from his shoulder injury in time to face the New York Giants again. Hurts has taken a huge leap from his previous years to play at a near MVP level this season. Speaking of quarterbacks taking a huge leap, Daniel Jones rolls into Philadelphia on Sunday morning looking for an upset. I tipped “Danny Dimes” to have 2+ Passing TD’s last week and Jones had one of his best games as he showed the league his potential. Traditionally divisional games are close, especially in the playoffs. The 13 point favourite Buffalo Bills only won by 3 and the Bengals favoured by 9 survived a last minute end zone shot to hold on against the Ravens last week. I think the 7.5 point spread is harsh on the Giants as I expect them to hold their own in this game. Adoree Jackson neutralised Justin Jefferson last week and I wouldn’t be shocked if he does similar to 2nd team All Pro AJ Brown who averages 57 yards in play-off games. (His line is at 72.5) Although the Giants could limit Brown and the Eagles through the air, they will have trouble stopping Hurts and Sanders on the ground. Sanders had 144 yards and 2 touchdowns in their first meeting and Hurts 77 yards for 1 touchdown. Similarly, back up Boston Scott has scored a rushing touchdown in 8 straight games v NYG. The Giants finished second highest in yards last weekend with an astounding 431 total against Minnesota. They also average 28.3 points per game over the last 3 weeks, 4th in the league and 21.7 points per game on the road this season, including when Jones was playing poorly. I expect them to keep it close in Lincoln Financial Field in a shootout.

*Click drop down arrow to view full bet research

3. Cincinnati Bengals (13-4) @ 2. Buffalo Bills (14-3)

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Sunday 22nd January
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8pm start time
Arguably the game of the week sees the Cincinnati Bengals travel to Buffalo to face the Bills in a rematch of the week 17 matchup which was abandoned following Damar Hamlin’s awful injury. It’s incredible news that Damar has been round the facility and all credit must go to the medical staff. This will be an emotional game for many, but fans will be excited to watch two of the best offences led by two of the game’s young stars face off. Josh Allen early struggles are well behind them as he shows his superstar ability. There is slight concern over his turnover numbers recently though. The other star QB is Joe Burrow, and we are focusing on him today. The Bengals number 9 led one of the most dynamic offences in college football history with the 2019 LSU Tigers. His WR1, Jamarr Chase was drafted to the Bengals alongside Burrow which led to a Super Bowl berth in their first year in the NFL together. Joe Burrow threw 2+ passing TD’s in the Wildcard and Conference Championship last year, showing little fear in the playoffs. With similar passing TD numbers to last year, we can expect a similar but more composed playoff showing. Burrow has an abundance of targets to throw to and has thrown a passing TD in every game this year, only failing to register 2+ in 3 games aside from against Baltimore. The Bills allow the 4th most TD to wide receivers. Boyd, Chase and Higgins all have a real shot at helping Burrow throw 2+ Passing TD’s.

*Click drop down arrow to view full bet research

5. Dallas Cowboys (13-5) @ 2. San Francisco 49ers (14-4)

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Sunday 22nd January
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11:30pm start time
In a rematch of last year’s Wildcard matchup, it’s the Dallas Cowboys turn to be the away side as they travel to Levi’s Stadium to take on the 14-4 San Francisco 49ers. The Niners took this game 23-17 last year with some last second controversy. Driving down the field with 13 seconds to go, the Cowboys elected to run the ball and failed to stop the clock in time. Cowboys fans all over blamed the refs but it was a dubious play call regardless. This rivalry goes back beyond last year to the 90’s when these were the two big franchises in the NFC. Playing 3 straight NFC Championship games, these sides learnt to hate each other, and nothing has changed since. Onto Brandon Aiyuk. The Niners number 11 has had his first 1000 yard receiving season this year and is one of the most under rated route runners in the NFL. Just ask opposing corner Trevon Diggs what Aiyuk did to him last year which is shown below. Aiyuk had 66 yards on 5 receptions last year but now he is more of a finished product and Brock Purdy is feeding him the targets he needs. Jimmy G (Niners QB last year) missed a wide open Aiyuk a couple of times last year. Purdy shouldn’t miss these throws with the separation Aiyuk should get. The Cowboys defence allows 12.78 receptions to WR per game and 162.56 yards, both in the top 10 highest. They are the 8th worst secondary in terms of yards after the catch, something the Niners star in. McCaffrey will provide an excellent check down option for Purdy and Kittle should get open over the middle a bit, but after the Cowboys linebackers get drawn into helping in coverage with that pair, Aiyuk should get his chunk players into the secondary. 50+ yards is exceptionally priced.

*Click drop down arrow to view full bet research

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