ABC logo
NFL Outright Betting Tips & Futures Predictions - Player Props Requested Bet

NFL Outright Betting Tips & Futures Predictions - Player Props Requested Bet

Monday 1 September, 20251 min read
Avatar

Stuart Durst

Stuart Durst is a professional gambler that has publicity released free plays over the last 3 years, publishing thousands of in-depth articles in the process. With a direct focus on the ever-expanding player prop market, he blends film study and data analytics to constantly find edges across multiple major sports. When he’s not betting sports, he’s likely either live on his podcast Pass The Prop or walking his dog Reno.

With the big kick-off just days away, it’s time to show you two of my favourite season-long bets for this year’s NFL action.

If you're having a bet on the NFL this season, here's the best NFL free bets & offers.


Exclusive Odds - 7/1 NFL Player Props Betting Tips

NFL

Calvin Ridley Over 1,000 Receiving Yards

I have never really been the biggest Calvin Ridley fan, but this year I’m finally on board in the perfect situation. He has been in the league for a sneakily long time, and despite not being a league-dominating alpha WR, he’s been consistently good in the WR1 role. This will be especially important for a rookie gunslinger like Cam Ward to depend on. 

Even with some inconsistent performances over the last two seasons, with some pretty rough play-callers manning the helm, he’s still posted back-to-back 1000-yard seasons without missing a game. This should be the most lively offense he’s played for in years, behind a new quarterback and coaching staff. 

Last year, they tailored his role a bit to the genius that is Will Levis, showing off more of his big-play ability. He led the league in air yards and ranked third in deep targets. While this sustained his fantasy production with deep plays, he missed a lot of the standard underneath WR1 production because Levis and the Titans just weren't successful in those shorter yardage situations. Now that he has someone who should be able to hit all quadrants of the field, we won't just need to rely on deep balls anymore. 

Ridley also posted a pretty awesome 121 targets last year, but only ended up bringing down 53% of those, thanks to Mr. Levis throwing those passes. He had more fantasy production left on the field than any WR in football last year, should be easy to improve on that, assuming Ward can be at least mediocre. Van Jefferson and Tyler Lockett are beyond dust, leaving him with minimal competition. The only person I have some hope for is day 3 rookie  Elic Ayomanor, who could be another good sleeper. 

Beyond the talent, there is nothing but opportunity in Tennessee. The rushing game will need to lean on Tony Pollard, and without Tajee Spears or a very stable offensive line, I have trouble believing they will be a very high-volume rushing team. Now, combine that with the fact that they are only projected to win 5 games, and I would expect plenty of trailing game scripts where they are forced to throw the ball even more than they might want to. 

Every place Cam Ward has been a quarterback, he has been a gunslinger. While the first time most people bet on him was in Miami, I’ve placed bets (technically DFS entries) on him dating back to the air raid offenses he operated for Incarnate Word and Washington State. He is comfortable throwing the ball alot, and this is now the best receiver he's ever worked with. I expect Ridley to be peppered with Targets, and I think he overperforms expectations heavily for a career year next season.

NFL

Jordan Mason Over 800 Rushing Yards

While Jordan Mason props are more limited depending on your sportsbook, it’s one of my favorite options in the market. Different books have different options, but any rushing yards longshots up to 1000, or touchdown ladders up to 10 are firmly in play for Mason this season. 

Jordan Mason is my highest owned fantasy best ball player, sitting at around 28% over 50+ lineups drafted. There is a clear difference in the market between where I have him priced vs where most people are at, leaving a prime opportunity to strike.

The first reason is quite simple, the Vikings saw a clear hole in this offense and addressed it the second they had the opportunity to do so. They didn’t wait to see who was available in free agency or who would fall in the draft; they proactively went out and acquired Mason from the 49ers after a great stint replacing CMC before he dealt with injury last year.

NFL

Jordan Mason Over 5.5 Touchdowns

Now, what void is he exactly filling? Well, Aaron Jones was one of the least efficient short-yardage backs in the league last year. MIN's -0.42 EPA per rush put them dead last in the NFL in the red zone. Aaron Jones ranked last among RBs in rush yards over expected, success rate, and EPA in the red zone, not numbers you want to see with your starting running back. Sure, he can handle passing downs, but Mason will be the clear short-yardage and redzone back. 

We have also always seen the best versions of Aaron Jones when he has someone to take some of the pressure off, like AJ Dillon. The age cliff is the killer for running backs, and as Aaron Jones gets older and older, it only makes sense to take more of the workload off his back. Last season, they only had Ty Chandler to do that, and I think Mason will have a huge impact on what they want to do. 

Sharp sites have the Vikings' offensive line projected as a top 7 unit, and JJ McCarthy's mobility will give opposing defenses someone to think about. You can’t really stack the box when facing Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson, meaning a guy like Jordan Mason, who was third in rush yards over expectation last year, should continue to be really efficient. I think he can get over both of these numbers with Aaron Jones healthy, but if he continues to miss games like he has in the past, then we have some extreme value here. 

Paddy Power
A £10 bet on my Player Prop Outright returns £80 if it wins.
Load bet @ 8.00

Want to get involved with NFL betting this season? Join Paddy Power here and claim a new customer offer

Join Paddy Power
Paddy Power

18+, T&Cs Apply. Gamble Responsibly. Ad.

18+, Please Gamble Responsibly, Ad.

Ahead of the new NFL season i've crunched the numbers and spent hours researching the best NFL Betting Tips, Parlays & Predictions plus my AFC Outright Tips and NFC Outright Tips.

As well as the divisional content we've also got some player prop futures too, including NFL MVP Winner Predictions and a 40/1 NFL Outright Tips & Futures Predictions covering team markets.

Of course, the Super Bowl is the biggest event of the year so we've also got exclusive odds and Super Bowl LX Outright Tips & Futures Predictions.

During the regular season we've got weekly NFL Accumulator Tips, Touchdown Predictions and Picks of the Day.

Paddy Power have also released a brand new NFL free-to-play game, perfect for anyone looking to get involved in NFL betting before putting up some cash.



* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *


Emoji
Written by an Andy verified content writer

18+ please gamble responsibly.