Ipswich are really well coached. Kieran McKenna has enhanced his reputation so much over the course of the last year as he has been able to follow up a 100+ points promotion by not only delivering results in this ultra-competitive league, but also, producing a level of performance that keeps pace with recent Premier League clubs.

It is the mental strength that is as impressive as anything else though, and something that will be required to turn around this terrible record. It is something that is difficult to quantify in data but one potential way of looking at it is that Ipswich have scored the highest number of away goals in the league, 25 in the last 15 minutes of matches, four clear of Southampton in that area.

Ipswich have also scored the highest number of goals in the league, from the second-highest total of shots on target. Their xG is 4th across the season as a whole, but 2nd since the turn of the year. Impressive, given that they were the ones ‘expected’ to fall away.

Norwich, themselves, are more impressive going forwards than defensively. They are 7th for xG generated over the course of the season, but 5th in 2024. The numbers are not as good defensively, Wagner’s side are 20th in the league for xG against, albeit that has improved to 8th in 2024.

The attacking slant to the data suggests that chances will be created here. The tension of the occasion usually works against goals in these situations, but both coaches will want to play to their strengths.

It is tough to call a winner, though the late goals and overall strength would lean towards Ipswich, but that ignores historical precedence.

In a game in which attacking threat is expected there are some interesting options for shots on target. Kieffer Moore is facing a race against time to be fit for some involvement in the game. This suggests that the big Welshman is unlikely to start, which means that it could be time for Ali Al-Hamadi to make an impact from the beginning.

While this isn’t the tactic that McKenna would’ve liked to have gone with, Al-Hamadi has proven to be excellent from the bench since his January arrival and his shots on target average is at 2.71 per 90.

We have to remember that this comes from late sub appearances against tired defences and, often, high pressure from Ipswich. However, if he starts, he is worth backing for at least one shot on target here.

The safest bet for Norwich is to back Josh Sargent to do the same. He has been the catalyst for Norwich’s improvement this season and Wagner will want to spring the American on the break as often as possible. He should find himself on the end of chances in decent areas in transition, as proven by his 1.67 shots on target per 90.

The only other player considered for this bet is Leif Davis. The Ipswich left back is a key attacking outlet, and while he usually is more of a provider, he proved against Southampton that he can strike a ball really well.

As always with corner betting much will depend on gamestate.

Ipswich dominated the corner count in the first Old Farm of the season, how much of that was down to being at home and how much was to do with being behind and, therefore, forcing the issue is unclear.

Norwich have a strong corners record at home. They earn 6.15 corners per match and concede only 3.85 corners to their visitors, which would back up their odds-on price in the match bet here.

However, the price seems a bit short for a derby game that could go either way. Taking into account how the match could pan out, with both teams having to push for a win for their respective causes, the prices should perhaps be closer together in this market.

There should also be a good recipe for supporting the overs in the corners market. There were nine in the first meeting, and there are reasons to believe it could be even higher here.

It is obvious to look towards Sam Morsy and Massimo Luongo here from an Ipswich perspective, but the prices are really prohibitive. Morsy may have fouled four times against Southampton, but he hadn’t committed any fouls in the previous two matches, also he only fouled once in the first Old Farm of the season.

Luongo also fouled only once in that game, and not at all against Saints, at such skinny prices it feels too risky to go with the midfielders here.

Axel Tuanzebe only played an hour against Southampton, but continued his run of matches in which he has committed a foul. That makes it five matches in six while playing at right back, which makes his price feel quite generous, especially for a derby match.

The argument is similar for Norwich right back Jack Stacey. He has fouled in his last two matches, and has 12 in his last 11 matches. The former Bournemouth man is highly likely to play 90 minutes and will have to deal with twin threats, probably Nathan Broadhead and then a marauding Leif Davis down his flank.