Nottingham Forest v Chelsea Cheat Sheet
Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
Kick Off: 16:30
Competition: Premier League
Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
Sunday afternoon sees Chelsea travel north to face Nottingham Forest at the City Ground on New Year’s Day. The home side come into this one in the relegation zone having lost 3-0 at Manchester United as the Premier League returned on Tuesday evening. Chelsea managed a comfortable 2-0 win over Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge – a game in which they were never too troubled. They sit in eighth ahead of this one and the new manager is under a small amount of pressure following a poor run of results in October and November before the World Cup.
Despite starting very poorly, some success in October and November has meant that Steve Cooper’s Nottingham Forest side are not cut adrift and only one point away from Everton and West Ham in 16th and 17th coming into this set of fixtures. They have won two of their last five (Crystal Palace and Liverpool) both of which were at home. In fact, 11 of their 13 points, including all three victories, have all come at the City Ground and they have only lost three of eight there, suggesting Chelsea might not have it all their own way as 2023 starts. They are unbeaten in four at home, picking up eight points from those games and they will be hoping that they can make the City Ground their fortress in their hope to stay up on their return to the Premier League. They will be delighted that they can welcome back goalkeeper Dean Henderson after he was ineligible to play against Manchester United – his parent club. However, Steve Cooper will not have big money signing Morgan Gibbs-White at his disposal and Jesse Lingard is a doubt here. Chiekhou Kouyate, Moussa Niakhate, Omar Richards and Giulian Biancone will all be out here. Given Nottingham Forest signed so many players in the summer, Cooper has plenty of opportunity to rotate and rest players in this busy schedule and this could see Neco Williams, Sam Surridge or Emmanuel Dennis come in.
Chelsea started the season with Thomas Tuchel as their manager, who won them the Champions League just two seasons ago. However, a poor start and ultimately a 1-0 defeat at Dinamo Zagreb got the blues boss fired, much to the shock of many and disappointment of plenty of Chelsea fans. He was replaced by Graham Potter who started very impressively, with six wins and three draws in his first nine whilst only conceding four in that time. However, Chelsea fans were brought straight back down to earth by a 4-1 humbling at Potter’s old club, Brighton, which started a run of four straight domestic losses before the break. They were comfortable as they beat Bournemouth on their return to the league, and their fans will hope that this can build some momentum for them. However, they have plenty of absentees. Armando Broja, N’Golo Kante, Ben Chilwell, Wesley Fofana and Ruben Loftus-Cheek are all out, as is Reece James who was withdrawn in the 53rd minute of the game at Stamford Bridge last week. He was a big part of the attack for Chelsea, and they look a different team at times without him. Mateo Kovacic and Hakim Ziyech who both played big parts in their teams’ runs to the semi-finals in the World Cup should be back here and will likely be on the bench.
Selection: 1 of 4
Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.80
Nottingham Forest have seen 44 goals in their 16 games so far this season, but defensively they’ve improved in recent weeks. Despite conceding three to Manchester United after the break, they held Crystal Palace, Tottenham, Liverpool and Brighton to a clean sheet in four out of six of their games just before the World Cup began in Qatar. At home, they have conceded just 11 in eight suggesting that they’re stronger here and will look to nullify Chelsea’s goal threat. Their home games have seen over 2.5 goals just 38% of the time, and in only two of their last five.
Chelsea games have seen a lack of goals recently. They have been struggling to score and Bournemouth was the first they scored in five (including a friendly against Aston Villa). Defensively, they stand towards the top end of the division having conceded just 17 goals in 15 games but have scored fewer than every other team in the top 10 with just 19 goals. Their games this season have seen three or more goals 53% of times and in exactly half of their away games. They struggle to create chances and have amassed just 1.25 xG per game, falling to 1.08 xG per game away from home. Nottingham Forest will try and frustrate the Blues here and Chelsea are lacking some creativity at the moment.
Selection: 2 of 4
Prediction: Christian Pulisic to have 2+ Shots
Odds: 1.44
Christian Pulisic has been out of favour for a long time with plenty of Chelsea managers but following a successful World Cup with the USA where he was their star man, he was rewarded with a start against Bournemouth and should start again here. He has only played a limited number of minutes but he is averaging 2.33 shots per 90.
In the league, he has started five games and had at least two shots in all of them – only managing one against West Ham where he played just 59 minutes. Against Bournemouth last week he had three shots from the left wing, and hit four on two separate occasions – against Manchester City and against Wolves, where he scored. He had nine shots in his last three games for the USA at the World Cup, hitting at least two in all of them and four against England. He should play 70+ minutes here, as he has in all but one of his starts, and should get plenty of opportunities to get some shots off.
Selection: 3 of 4
Prediction: Ryan Yates to commit 2+ Fouls
Odds: 1.36
Ryan Yates has been on a journey with Nottingham Forest since he was 20 and has become an important part of their midfield. However, he has made 34 fouls in 1393 minutes this season and has committed at least two on several occasions, including against Manchester United last weekend. He has committed at least one in his last eight games, and at least two in six of those. Against better sides, he tends to commit more as well. Against Manchester City (4), Brighton (4), Liverpool (5), Arsenal (1), Tottenham (3) and Manchester United (2) he has had at least one and 19 in those six games alone.
Selection: 4 of 4
Prediction: Cesar Azpilicueta to commit 1+ Foul
Odds: 1.36
Cesar Azpilicueta is likely to step in for Reece James on the right hand side of defence here, as he has done for a lot of this season. The 33 year old has struggled at times here and has committed 11 fouls already in this season. In his last three starts for Chelsea he has committed seven fouls, and was substituted at half time against Manchester United. He committed two fouls in just three halves of football for Spain in the World Cup, both of which came in a comprehensive victory over Costa Rica where they won 7-0. His opponent here is likely to be Renan Lodi, who has been fouled 157 times in just 84.6 full 90 minutes, including 14 times in just over six full matches this season at his new club. He has been fouled at least once in every appearance so far this season and was fouled three times against both Crystal Palace and Bournemouth.
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