Chris Wood is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career, with the New Zealand international already notching 18 league goals for Nottingham Forest. His form in front of goal has been excellent, and he has become Forest’s go-to man for testing opposition goalkeepers – Wood averages 1.25 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Furthermore, he has been highly consistent in recent weeks, hitting the target in 7 of his last 9 games, with 11 total shots on target in that period. Arsenal’s defence has been struggling with injuries, and they have been conceding more chances than usual.

Given that Forest are strong at home and Wood is in excellent scoring form, he will likely find himself with shooting opportunities here.

Arsenal may not be the most ill-disciplined team in the Premier League, but their recent record suggests they are picking up bookings at a much higher rate than their seasonal average. Although the Gunners average 1.77 cards per game, they have received multiple yellow cards in 7 of their last 10 matches, totalling 19 cards over that period. Even in the 3 matches where they fell short, they were only 1 card away from meeting this line.

On the other hand, Nottingham Forest’s opponents have been booked frequently this season, averaging 2.48 cards per game. 4 of Forest’s last 5 opponents have received at least 2 yellow cards, collecting 12 cards across those fixtures.

Given that Arsenal are under pressure to keep pace in the title race, frustration could creep into their game, leading to more fouls and bookings.

Nottingham Forest average 4.72 corners per game but have been outperforming this figure in recent weeks. In their last 5 matches, Forest have won a total of 33 corners, averaging 6.6 per game.

Additionally, they have taken a minimum of 4 corners in each of their last 5 fixtures, highlighting their attacking intent and ability to win set pieces. While Arsenal’s opponents typically only manage 2.77 corners per game, the Gunners are missing key players and may struggle to control possession as effectively.

With Forest playing at home, where they are particularly strong, they should be able to force Arsenal into defensive situations that lead to corners.

Morgan Gibbs-White has been an attacking threat for Nottingham Forest all season, and he looks overpriced at 1.73 to record at least 2 shots against Arsenal. The midfielder averages 2.08 shots per 90 minutes and has been particularly active in recent games.

He has attempted multiple shots in 5 of his last 6 appearances, taking 13 shots across that period. With Arsenal conceding nearly 9 shots per game in their last 6 outings, the chances of Gibbs-White finding space to take at least 2 attempts are high.

Given his role as one of Forest’s primary attacking players, he is likely to be heavily involved in offensive play. Whether from open play or set pieces, Gibbs-White should get a couple of shots off here.

With Liverpool leading the title race, Arsenal know they cannot afford to drop points, and this pressure could lead to a more physical game. The Gunners already average 10.7 fouls per match and have hit this line in 8 of their last 10 fixtures.

Across their last 10 matches, Arsenal have committed an average of 11 fouls per game, showing a consistent pattern of aggressive play.

Nottingham Forest also win plenty of fouls, having been awarded at least 10 in 6 of their last 7 games. The only exception during this period saw them win 9 fouls, meaning they consistently force opponents into making challenges.

Despite suffering 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, Nottingham Forest’s home record remains strong, making them a solid value pick to avoid defeat. All of their recent losses have come away from home, while at the City Ground, they are unbeaten in their last 7. Arsenal are struggling with injuries and have lost 2 of their last 3 games in all competitions.

Forest have also had success against Arsenal at home, winning 2 of their last 3 meetings at the City Ground. Given their strong home form and Arsenal’s recent struggles, backing Forest to either win or draw at 1.73 looks like an excellent value bet.

The Gunners may dominate possession, but Forest’s resilience at home and their ability to frustrate big teams suggest they can secure at least a point in this match.