In this article…
Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa
📅
Kick Off: Sunday 5th November at 14:00
🏆
Competition: Premier League
📺
Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
Aston Villa will be hoping to extend their unbeaten run in the Premier League to seven matches when they arrive at the City Ground to face Nottingham Forest on Sunday. The fifth-placed Villans are having their best start to a Premier League season in 25 years, daring fans to dream about potential Champions League football next year. Conversely, the home side have found wins difficult to come by as of late, with their last victory dating back to their 1-0 win over Chelsea two months ago, leaving them lurking above the relegation zone.
Last season marked Nottingham Forest’s return to the top-flight after a 23-year absence in which they managed a 16th-placed finish, four points above the drop zone. Forest fans will be hoping their team won’t be the latest victim of the second-season curse, but with points and goals looking equally thin so far this campaign, there will be some doubts looming.
Unai Emery’s side are flying high this year, collecting 16 points from 18 in their last six matches which leaves them only four points off the top of the table. Villa haven’t lost in the league since the start of September, the complete reversal of Sunday’s hosts, and their 3-1 win over Luton last week marked their third win on the bounce. Aston Villa have only lost once against the East Midlands side in their last 16 meetings so they will likely be seeking another three points here.
Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
You can find Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa on my Bet Builder stats tool, along with official lineups one hour before kick-off.
Now, for my breakdown and preview with recommended bets…
🌳 Nottingham Forest stats: The City Ground fortress showing cracks in the walls
Steve Cooper’s side are without a win in six matches following their 3-1 defeat to Liverpool last Sunday which saw them sink to 16th place after other teams picked up points around them. The result sounds gloomy but that result marked their first defeat in four matches after drawing four of their last six fixtures. There is definitely the argument that Nottingham Forest need to be beating the likes of Burnley and Luton Town, especially at home, if they stand a chance of surviving the drop, but all points count.
Forest’s home record was pivotal to their survival in the top-flight last season and they’ll certainly need to start picking up more points at home to compensate for their lacklustre away performances.
Steve Cooper will remain without the likes of Callum Hudson-Odoi, Divock Origi and Gonzalo Montiel for this home clash as injuries persist to plague Sunday’s team selection. Matt Turner will also be keen to impress this weekend, after some costly errors in recent weeks may have attracted some attention to his position as number one after the summer signing of Greek international Odysseas Vlachodimos.
🦁 Aston Villa stats: The Villans on fire at the top
As alluded to already, this Aston Villa side have hit a great run of form of late, unbeaten in six and picking up five wins in that time. Boasting the joint-most prolific attack, having scored 26 goals after ten games, they’re on fire and loving their time in front of goal. The hosts are without a clean sheet in four Premier League matches so Villa will be expecting to add to that tally after slotting three past pitiful Luton last week.
Ollie Watkins will be looking for a return to the goals and or assists this week after his blank against Luton, which no doubt left him and Fantasy Football managers frustrated. The last time Watkins was unable to register a goal or assist dates back to 3rd September in Villa’s 3-0 loss to Liverpool – a man in stunning form.
The stats and the form do make it difficult to look past another victory for this Aston Villa side, and hunting down their fourth consecutive victory across all competitions, a price of 1.85 for their victory here seems way too appealing to look past.
🎯 Nottingham Forest offensive stats: Who can remedy this goal drought?
Steve Cooper’s side have definitely had difficulties up front this season and have struggled to find consistency in their attacking performances. Taiwo Awoniyi has faced a few weeks on the sidelines after which has allowed Anthony Elanga to slot into the starting XI.
The Swede hasn’t managed to add to his single-goal tally after coolly slotting home the winner against Chelsea at the start of September, but he has certainly managed to get into some good goal-scoring positions. Elanga averages an impressive 2.83 shots on goal per 90 of which 1.52 hit the target, second only to backup striker Chris Wood in both of these categories.
Playing through the centre recently has allowed Elanga to get into promising positions and threaten the goal. The Forest man is priced at 2.10 to have a shot on target, a safer angle could be for him to have two shots at goal at 1.67.
An exciting pick for your bet builders for this game could be Willy Boly. The centre-back has proven a fairly unlikely goal threat this season and has in fact registered the third-most shots on goal for Nottingham Forest this season (10) only behind Morgan Gibbs-White and Anthony Elanga. Of these, an impressive five have hit the target and one went in, averaging out at 0.60 shots on target per 90 – the Ivorian has really proved himself a threat from set-piece situations.
Our angle for this would be for Boly to have one shot in this game priced at 1.67. He’s averaging 1.20 shots on goal per 90 and if Forest can pick up some set pieces in this game, Boly could be our man. Or if you fancy a longer odds bet, Boly is priced at 3.00 to have a shot on target.
Prediction: Anthony Elanga to have 1+ shot on target @ 2.10
Prediction: Anthony Elanga to have 2+ shots @ 1.67
Prediction: Willy Boly to have 1+ shot @ 1.67
Prediction: Willy Boly to have 1+ shot on target @ 3.00
🎯 Aston Villa offensive stats: Who else but Ollie Watkins
As alluded to already, the key danger man in this Aston Villa side is Ollie Watkins who has been on fire so far this season. The striker had picked up five goals and five assists in ten Premier League games and will be hungry after missing out against Luton last week.
Ollie Watkins is priced at a generous 1.91 to score or assist against Nottingham Forest on Sunday. Considering that, before last week, he had been involved in at least one goal in every league game since the start of September, this selection could provide great value. He averaged an impressive 3.25 shots on goal in the same period. Up against a defensively fragile Nottingham Forest side there ought to be lots of opportunities here to grab at least one goal contribution.
His dynamic partner Moussa Diaby could also be a great selection for attacking markets, chipping in with eight goal involvements so far this season and some promising shooting stats per 90, but a more discrete selection for bet builders could come from Douglas Luiz. The Brazilian finds himself with five goals in the Premier League, Villa’s joint top goalscorer with Watkins, and is in fine form in the attacking department.
Douglas Luiz has established himself as first-choice penalty taker, which has contributed significantly to his attacking threat this season. Still, he is registering 1.70 shots on goal per 90 with 0.42 hitting the target – not bad figures for a defensive midfielder who loves his long-range efforts.
Forest have conceded one penalty so far this season but Aston Villa have drawn three, the most in the League this season, so there could be some potential for Luiz to get on target. He is priced at 2.3 to have one shot on target or a safer price of 1.20 to have one shot at goal.
Prediction: Ollie Watkins to score or assist @ 1.91
Prediction: Douglas Luiz to have 1+ shot on target @ 2.30
Prediction: Douglas Luiz to have 1+ shot @ 1.20
🛑 Nottingham Forest defensive stats: Will set pieces be the downfall of Forest on Sunday?
Unsurprisingly given their 17th league position, Steve Cooper’s boys have found defensive duties fairly difficult this season and the stats suggest they’ve got what they’ve deserved. Forest have accumulated an xGA of 15.79 so far, and in reality, have conceded 15 goals.
An area for danger on Sunday will certainly be Forest’s tendency to concede corners. Currently conceding an average of 6.70 corners per match, the third-worst record in the Premier League, this could invite increasing pressure from a visiting side that loves corners.
Aston Villa are fifth in the standings for most corners taken (61) and take an average of 6.10 corners per game, very similar to Forest’s figures, which indicates an attractive market to target here. There are two angles to approach this from, total corners and Aston Villa team corners.
Both sides are seeing an average of 10.50 corners per game, and at least 11 corners has occurred in 60% of both teams’ fixtures, which rises to 80% for ten corners. A price of 1.75 to see ten total corners could be attractive. The visitors are certainly enjoying seeing more of the corners in their games with Forest showing vulnerability, so the Villans to take five corners at 1.45 could be an alternative approach.
Prediction: Over 9.5 corners @ 1.75
Prediction: Aston Villa over 4.5 corners @ 1.45
🛑 Aston Villa defensive stats: Kamara to take the fall for Digne and Luiz
Sitting amongst the mid-table of disciplinary records in ninth place with 25 yellows, Villa have been fairly disciplined so far this season. These cards, however, are only distributed amongst 11 players meaning there are some key repeat offenders that love to get stuck in.
Key offenders have been Lucas Digne and Douglas Luiz who are both treading the suspension tightrope recently as both sit on four yellows this season, one away from being forced to miss out on their next outing. However, considering this, we’d expect that both of these players won’t be silly enough to give Unai Emery that selection headache. Yet both are good candidates for foul markets still, averaging 1.21 and 1.28 fouls per 90 respectively.
Another key candidate to look out for here would be Boubacar Kamara who is Villa’s top fouler this season (19) and he has seen yellow three times this term. The Frenchman has had a seriously impressive start to the season and has found himself tussling hard in almost every midfield battle. Kamara averages 2.02 fouls per 90, only Nicolo Zaniolo has a greater number, and draws in an equally impressive 1.91 fouls – he’s glued to the possession battles.
The Forest midfield is no stranger to some fouls and disciplinary slip-ups which could certainly invite Kamara into those fouling situations. He is priced at 1.73 to commit two fouls, and the price of 3.10 to be booked could be worth a juicy longer-odds punt.
Prediction: Boubacar Kamara to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.73
Prediction: Boubacar Kamara to be booked @ 3.10
🎁 Join Paddy Power Today, Bet £10 and Get £50 in Free Football Bet Builders
Sign up to Paddy Power, place a £10 bet on football at odds of 2.00 (evens) or greater, and you will unlock £50 in Free Bets to use on Bet Builders.
New Customer offer. Place a min £10 bet on Football on odds of min 1.5 (1/2), get £50 in Free Bet Builders after the qualifying bet has been settled. Rewards valid for 30 days. SMS verification required. Only deposits via cards will qualify (Apple Pay excluded). T&Cs apply. Please Gamble Responsibly.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
18+ please gamble responsibly.
