Nottingham Forest v Manchester United Cheat Sheet
Nottingham Forest v Manchester United
Sunday afternoon sees Manchester United travel to the City Ground to face Nottingham Forest in an important game for both sides at different ends of the table. The home side looked like they were staying up but have struggled in recent weeks, winning just one game since the 14th of January and without a win since the start of February. They arrive into this one in the relegation zone on goal difference but a win could take them up to 15th. The visitors threw away three points at home to Sevilla in midweek but they are in fourth, three points ahead of Spurs in fifth with two games in hand.
Nottingham Forest started the season very slowly and looked certainties for relegation before the World Cup break. However, a strong couple of months following the tournament in Qatar dragged them up to 13th, but they have now reverted back to their start-of-season form. They can take confidence from their record here, however, where they have picked up 21 of their 27 points which is a better return at home than most of the teams around them. Newcastle are also the only side to beat them in the league here since September, although their opponents on Sunday did hammer them 3-0 in the League Cup semi-finals. Forest do have plenty of injuries though. Chiekhou Kouyate and Moussa Niakhate became the newest players in their medical room last weekend and they joined Giulian Biancone, Renan Lodi, Omar Richards, Gustavo Scarpa, Chris Wood, Willy Boly, and Dean Henderson. Ryan Yates and Serge Aurier may both miss out too.
Manchester United have been flying under Erik ten Hag this season and they are sat in fourth in the league and through to the quarter-finals of the Europa League, having already won the League Cup this season. Their away record has been disappointing, picking up just 20 points from their 14 league games this season whilst conceding 29 goals but they will see this as an opportunity to bolster this record. They have won nine of their last 13 games in all competitions and this record should have been better in midweek where two late own goals cost them as Sevilla drew 2-2 at Old Trafford, leaving them in a precarious position going into next weekend. A big part of their recent upturn in form has been Marcus Rashford, who has scored 20 goals, grabbing five assists, in the 28 games he has appeared in since the World Cup but they will be without him here due to a groin injury. Both Raphael Varane and Lisandro Martinez – United’s centre-backs – went off injured in midweek and they will miss out here, meaning that Lindelof and Maguire will probably be the centre-back pairing unless Luke Shaw recovers from a thigh injury. Donny van de Beek, Tom Heaton, and Alejandro Garnacho will all miss out here too.
Manchester United have been performing on a relatively consistent basis since the break and have seen plenty of goals at both ends of the pitch. Since the World Cup, they have played 29 games, scoring at least two in 22 of them and conceding at least two in six – with their opposition scoring 11 times across their last four games. In the 29, this selection has landed 18 times. Whilst Casemiro being back should help to solidify the defence, both first-choice centre-backs are injured and this should make them more vulnerable. These two sides have met three times already this season with United scoring at least twice in all three and scoring three times on two occasions.
Nottingham Forest have seen an average of 2.47 goals per game at home this season, conceding an average of 1.51 xG per game, whilst creating 1.16 xG. Their last four games have all seen both teams score. They have played nine home games in 2023, with 15 of those sides scoring. An alternative angle could therefore be both teams to score, priced at 1.75.
Antony has not reached the heights Manchester United fans would have hoped following a big money move from Ajax in the summer, scoring just three league goals from 17 appearances. However, he is averaging over three league shots per game and over one on target per match. Since the World Cup, he has appeared 23 times for the Red Devils, having at least two hosts in 18 of those and having 27 shots on target with this selection landing in 18 of those.
This season he has played all three matches against Nottingham Forest, having eight shots (at least two in each) and four shots on target (at least one in each), despite playing just 62, 64 and 70 minutes in those games. With Marcus Rashford out, there is more onus on the Brazilian to attack.
Injuries have had a massive effect on Anthony Martial’s Manchester United career and he has barely played as a result. However, he has scored four goals from six shots on target in six full matches in the league this season. The French forward has only made 18 appearances (ten starts) but has still had 21 shots with 12 on target.
In the 13 games he has played 30 minutes or more in, he has had 11 shots on target with this selection landing on eight occasions. Despite not playing much, he has played twice against Nottingham Forest. The first was at the end of December when he had two shots on target, scoring once, in his 64 minutes. The second was a 28-minute appearance off the bench where he scored from his only shot in the League Cup.
Manchester United average 4.83 corners per game this season, having at least four in 66% and at least five in 48% of them. In their last ten in the league, they have averaged six corners per game with this selection landing in six. The Red Devils have had 19 corners in the three matches against Forest this season with this selection landing in all three.
Nottingham Forest concede an average of 6.13 corners per game this season, falling to 5.27 at home. At the City Ground, their opponents have had at least five corners in over half (53%) of them, and across their last ten, they have conceded 51 corners here, averaging just two per game. Backing United for over 4.5 corners at 4/9 (1.45) is an alternative angle at similar odds.
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