Fredrikstad v Mjøndalen

It has been a miserable season for Fredrikstad, but they should still have enough to avoid relegation. They have a seven point cushion ahead of Skeid with only five games left to play and it is even a possibility they already have enough points on the board. Drawing 3-3 vs Skeid in their most recent match was a massive result, especially as they scored a late equaliser to get a point. Prior to that game, FFK had sacked manager Bjørn Johansen after five years in charge. To be fair, they had given him more than enough time to turn around proceedings this season. This is a team which finished in the playoffs last year and they had similar objectives this term. A horrible run of form which saw Fredrikstad lose 7 out of 9 matches prompted the board to act and Joakim Klaeboe is now the interim manager until the end of the campaign. The initial signs are that Klaeboe will be quite offensive minded and the 3-3 vs Skeid was a wild encounter containing several chances. This will be his first home game in charge so he will want to impress the fans.

Mjøndalen also had a recent managerial change with assistant Kevin Nicol taking over from the long standing Vegard Hansen after 17 years in charge! Nicol has been in the top job for five games now and managed to win three of those encounters. He said in a recent interview that he was trying to bring a more entertaining and attacking brand of football to the club. He also said that he still believed they could get promoted this season. To achieve that they must make the playoffs and with five games left they are four points adrift of the required mark. MIF have to keep winning matches; it is as simple as that.  Mjøndalen have the second worst xG of any team in the OBOS Ligaen (28.0), but I think most of their statistics can be ignored now considering the managerial change. This is a different setup, and the situation means they must keep being aggressive to have a chance of achieving their objective.

Fredrikstad are surprisingly 1.85 odds-on favourites to win this match. They might be priced up with the presumption of a new managerial bounce at home, but this is a team that has only won 3 of its last 19 league games. I think the best bet is to take both teams to score at 1.44. I also like over 2.5 for this fixture but that price is not much bigger at 1.50. The 1-1 draw can’t be ruled out because Fredrikstad will take any points they can in their bid to ensure survival, whilst an away point wouldn’t be totally disastrous for Mjøndalen either. FFK haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 11 games, whilst the visitors have failed to shut out any team in their last 9 attempts. Both teams scoring looks like quite an obvious and safe selection, even if the price isn’t anything spectacular.

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Start v KFUM Oslo

This is a battle between 3rd and 4th in the table. Both teams desperately need to win to apply pressure on Stabaek above them in the race for the second and final automatic promotion spot. Start had a very mixed run of results in the middle of the summer but four consecutive victories have moved them back into promotion contention. They have scored 15 goals in their last four games and are suddenly firing again. They could be one of the teams who end the season very strong with only five games left. Start have the 7th best home record in the OBOS Ligaen but their recent results have massively improved at this stadium. The underlying metrics for Start are very good at both ends of the field.  Their xG is an average of 1.99 per 90 mins, the 3rd best of any team in the league. Defensively, they rank 4th best for xGA, although that figure is much higher at 1.55 per match. It was a blow that they lost top scorer Jonatan Braut Brunes in the summer transfer window. However, talented playmaker Eirik Schulze has been superb recently and netted 5 goals in his last 7 games, in addition to supplying a couple of assists. 

Start are on a run of seven consecutive matches containing over 2.5 goals, whilst KFUM Oslo are on a streak of 11 straight games for this same statistic. Backing over 2.5 goals in a KFUM Oslo match has become an automatic bet every week. In total, 22 of their 25 OBOS Ligaen matches have contained at least 3 goals this season, the most recent of which was a 3-3 home draw vs Bryne just before the international break. 100% of their away games (12/12) have all ended over 2.5 this year which is a remarkable statistic. The main reason for that is an impressive attack force which has an xG average of 1.93 per 90 mins. KFUM still have the second best xGA metrics in the league, but their 1.48 average per match is still quite high. This is a very attack minded league and only Brann have any sort of defence which can be deemed reliable. KFUM are now two points behind Stabaek in the race for second place and really need to win this match.

I am surprised that odds of 1.50 are still being offered to back over 2.5 in a KFUM match. I would have expected something closer to the 1.25 range at this stage of the season and it appears to be a no-brainer selection. Both teams have some great attacking numbers, and the situation of the league table dictates that both sides have to push for the victory. It is a very obvious selection but taking over 2.5 goals in KFUM matches has been extremely profitable and I see no reason why that shouldn’t continue.

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Stabaek v Åsane

The sacking of former Stabaek manager Eirik Kjönö with ten games remaining perhaps looked a little harsh at the time, but it might prove to be a masterstroke. The club appointed Lars Bohinen as the new man in charge and he has picked up 13 points from a possible 15 since taking over. Of course, it helps on paper that Stabaek have a very strong squad and were one of the pre-season favourites to obtain promotion. However, Bohinen must be given a lot of credit for settling in quickly. He has an excellent record getting teams promoted out of the OBOS Ligaen, and in fairness did a good job in the Eliteserien last year at Sarpsborg before the club allowed him to walk without offering a new contract. All four of Stabaek’s wins under Bohinen have been to nil and they have impressively controlled proceedings on the field. This should be a straightforward sort of fixture facing Åsane who would appear to have little to play for. It is no surprise to see Stabaek as clear 1.15 favourites to win this game.

The reverse fixture earlier this season resulted in a 4-0 victory for Stabaek, and they should be too strong for this Åsane team, who have realistically been one of the big overachieving sides in the division this year. Many expected them to be in the relegation dogfight, but they have a 10 point cushion to the playoff spot now and they probably already have enough points. Åsane have an horrendous defensive record this season, conceding a massive 54 goals. Their average xGA per 90 mins is 1.96 so this is a legitimately poor defence. Whilst still not technically safe, I do feel like this team might soon be ‘on the beach’ with questionable motivation. Their away record is mixed but have only won twice on the road in 12 attempts this season.

Stabaek have been re-ignited by the appointment of Bohinen as manager and they look like the clear favourite to finish second now. Due to a much better goal difference, they only need another 13 points from their final five games to clinch second spot. There are some tougher fixtures to come, not least the crucial battle vs KFUM Oslo next week, but this should be a comfortable home win. Considering that Stabaek are priced just 1.15 to prevail, the -1 handicap at 1.62 actually looks like a good price. There is always the risk of any team only winning by a one goal margin but because Stabaek have been keeping so many clean sheets under Bohinen then the 2-0 or 3-0 scoreline is very much in play, which makes me favour the handicap play more than anything goals related.

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Kongsvinger v Sogndal

Both teams are on the fringes of the playoffs, but Kongsvinger are in far better form. They have won 7 of their last 9 matches to bring themselves within a point of the top six. This team is one of the big form sides in the OBOS right now and confidence is high. For most of the season they were just picking up mediocre results and languishing in midtable, but a steady improvement has got them into a position where the playoffs are a realistic possibility. Kongsvinger have overachieved at both ends of the pitch this season. They have an xG of 34 goals but managed to hit the back of the net 38 times. At the other end of the field, they have the 4^th worst xGA in the entire division (46.75) but have only conceded 31 times! That is a huge overachievement of nearly 15 goals which obviously feels unsustainable. However, there are reasons for this, and the form of goalkeeper August Stromberg has been spectacular. He has only kept five clean sheets all season but been a great last line of defence for the club. They have the third best home record in the league winning 6 out of 12 games with four draws. Only the top two teams, Brann and Stabaek have beaten them at their own stadium.

The visitors Sogndal won just before the international break, beating Ranheim 2-0 which was a very important victory. It was only their second victory in nine league games though and Tore Andre Flo’s men have been in poor form since late summer. A playoff position is still possible, but they need to be winning games such as this one considering there are so few games left. Sogndal’s problem is that they are just bang average at a lot of things this season and if they were to finish outside of the playoffs in mid table then it wouldn’t be a huge surprise. Probably the biggest Achilles heel has been a defence which has the 5^th worst xGA out of any team in the division (46.25) and this correlates closely toward their conceded goals of 48, the most of any team currently inside the top ten. The manager, Tore Andre Flo, who was best known for his playing days at English Premier league club Chelsea has recently switched to a 3-4-3 system. He will be pleased to have picked up a rare clean sheet in that fixture vs Ranheim just before the international break.

Kongsvinger are in really good form, and I think they are a nice value bet at 2.10 to win this match. Sogndal just don’t have a trustworthy feeling about them anymore and some of their other recent results have been very disappointing, including a 3-3 draw vs Bryne and a 0-1 defeat at home to Skeid. This is a much tougher match and although taking goals or both teams scoring is also a possibility, the value is there on the home win which I can’t ignore.

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