A key figure in Palmeiras’ midfield, Richard Ríos is a solid pick to commit at least two fouls in this match. The Colombian plays a very aggressive defensive role on the right side, supporting right-back Agustín Giay and looking to win the ball to spring Estevão into attack.

Ríos is known for committing frequent fouls. He committed two or more fouls in four of his last five games. Among the likely 22 to feature, he has the highest average for fouls committed—precisely two per match—based on data from the Brasileirão and Libertadores.

Against Porto, his defensive responsibilities will be even greater, as the Portuguese left flank is very intense. In last season's Europa League, players like Pepê (1.3 fouls drawn per game), Rodrigo Mora (1.0 fouls drawn per game), Francisco Moura (0.7 fouls drawn per game), and even Samu (0.44 fouls drawn per game), who sometimes drifts wide, are potential one-on-one opponents.

Moreover, since Porto are expected to dominate possession and pressure Palmeiras, the midfielders will need to recover the ball and launch counterattacks. Ríos averages 1.2 tackles and 5.0 ball recoveries per game in the Brasileirão, which may lead to fouls in this effort.

Given the value and strong recent shot volume, Rodrigo Mora is a great pick in the shots market. As noted, Porto are expected to take the initiative and have more offensive possession, meaning they could outshoot Palmeiras. If Samu is tightly marked by the Brazilian defenders, Mora could be a key offensive outlet.

The 18-year-old attacking midfielder had a good season, with 13 goal involvements and ten goals scored. He enters the Club World Cup in great form, with four goals in his last five matches. In each of those, he also recorded over one shot.

In the Primeira Liga, he played just over 15 full matches and took 44 shots—an impressive average of 2.8 attempts per 90 minutes. Thus, this odds line is highly appealing given the likely match dynamics and Mora’s recent stats.

Porto are expected to dominate possession and control the game initially. The Portuguese side have a possession-heavy style that also produces many shots. In the Primeira Liga, they had the highest average possession (61.7%) and were the 3rd most frequent shooters (13.9 per game).

This playing style favours corner opportunities. In the Portuguese league, Porto averaged 5.5 corners per match. Palmeiras, meanwhile, play with a quick transition system and rarely dominate possession.

In the Brasileirão, for example, Palmeiras rank only 10th in average possession and allows ten shots per game, conceding an average of 4.3 corners. It’s reasonable to project that Abel Ferreira’s side will be under pressure from the Dragons, which could result in more corners conceded. The current average is 5.0 per match across recent competitions.

Additionally, Porto had the 4th-highest amount of crosses into the box in the Portuguese league—usually aimed at Samu—so Palmeiras’ defenders may often need to clear the ball for corners to avoid dangerous chances.