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Paraguay v Brazil
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Kick Off: Saturday 29th June at 02:00
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Watch Live: Premier Sports 1
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Competition: Copa America
The Copa America reaches the midpoint of the group stages, with game day 2 well underway. Brazil and Paraguay face off in a vital game for both sides. The Brazilians will be frustrated with their opening-day draw against Costa Rica and Paraguay have to win to have a realistic chance of progressing to the knockout rounds.
As the European equivalent enters a short two-day break before the knockouts, the Copa America action continues on Saturday morning, and as always, Andy’s Bet Club has got you covered for football betting tips, including Paraguay v Brazil bet builder tips.
We have also collated our favourite free bets offers for you to get the most value for your money throughout this summer of sport, as well as a list of the best bet builder bookmakers for you to use in the process.
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Brazil will want to win the group to avoid the potential of playing Uruguay in the next round, the likely winners of Group C.
The game is being played at the Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada. Fittingly for gamblers, it’s just a 15-minute trip to downtown Las Vegas. Although there’s currently a 40-degree heatwave in the area, the stadium is fully air-conditioned with a closed roof, so we shouldn’t see too much of an impact on the goals lines.
Paraguay have won the tournament twice and finished runners-up on 6 occasions, with their last win in 1979 and last final in 2011.
Brazil are still in search of ‘o décimo’, their tenth Copa America title, having last won the trophy in 2019.
Paraguay v Brazil Best Bets
Although Brazil aren’t going off as 1.1 favourites like they did against Costa Rica, they are still 1.33 to win on the match odds and the price is far from attractive.
However, they should see the game out and remain relatively untroubled by the Paraguayan attack. Given the stats mentioned with Paraguay scoring just three times in their last ten games, they will struggle to break down an experienced and well-drilled Brazilian defence.
Brazil will naturally dominate the possession and flow of the game and although Paraguay would likely need to win the game to go through, they still have a possibility of drawing the game and beating Costa Rica on the final day to have a chance of progressing to the knockout rounds if Brazil lose to Colombia on the final match day.
📂 Paraguay v Brazil Cheat Sheet
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📊 Paraguay Form and Stats
Paraguay have had a historical reputation as an incredibly tough team to play against. They fought back in the Colombia game and ended up narrowly losing the game. They actually won the xG battle, with an xG of 1.35 to Colombia’s 0.85. Apart from a 3-0 defeat against Chile in their warm-up games, they haven’t lost a game by more than a 1-goal margin since June of 2023, a run stretching back seven games.
Their bigger concern is their lack of goal threat, with just three goals scored in their last ten games. They struggle to create quality chances, with just three shots on target against the Colombians and Panamanians in their two most recent games and just one against Chile in the game prior to that.
Costa Rica weren’t able to find the target at all against the Brazilians and Paraguay could also struggle, if they are to set up their team in the hopes of nicking a draw or a rare breakaway.
📊 Brazil Form and Stats
What felt like a final for the Costa Ricans would have been a hammer blow for Brazil, coming into the tournament as second favourites behind Argentina. They struggled to break down the Costa Rican defence and the result puts added pressure on them to win this game and face off against Colombia for a chance to top the group. They dominated the game with 70% of the possession and an xG of 1.33 compared to Costa Rica’s minimal 0.03. On the face of it they created chances, with 7 shots on goal but couldn’t put their chances away.
Prior to the Costa Rica game, Brazil had picked up some reasonable form with 2 wins and 2 draws in this calendar year. Considering that these were all away games against England, Spain, Mexico, and Brazil respectively, it shows an improvement from their CONMEBOL qualifying results, where they currently sit in 6th place with just two wins from their six games.
The concern for Brazil will be how they break down a team like Paraguay who sit with a low block. In games against similarly defensive opponents, they drew 1-1 with Paraguay and narrowly beat Peru 1-0. They’ll be hoping they create enough quality chances to break down Paraguay with the sheer gulf in quality they have in forward areas.
⚔️ Paraguay v Brazil Head-to-Head
The two sides have met on 83 occasions, with Brazil winning 51 and Paraguay winning 13 of the fixtures. Paraguay have not managed to beat Brazil in their last nine attempts, with their last victory over the Brazilians coming in a 2008 CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifier. Brazil have scored 9 goals without reply against the Paraguayans in their last four encounters.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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