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🗂️ Plymouth v Luton
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Kick Off: Friday 27th September at 20:00
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Competition: Championship
Neither club has had the start that they would’ve wanted before the season began. Plymouth had high hopes of a big impact from Wayne Rooney, but they will be hoping that their home form can pick up following their 3-2 win against Sunderland the last time they played at Home Park.
Luton have had a couple of good results back-to-back which has alleviated some of the pressure that was beginning to grow on Rob Edwards. There is no doubt that Luton have a strong squad and starting XI for the level, as they demonstrated the last time they were in the second tier with back-to-back top six finishes before going up into the Premier League for a season.
There should be an exciting atmosphere down at Home Park for this encounter, and there are a number of interesting markets and opportunities from a betting perspective as well.
Plymouth v Luton Best Bets
The evidence from the opening six matches of the season suggests that Plymouth are struggling to create much going forwards, and that Luton have remained quite solid defensively, even away from home.
However, the second half of last season also demonstrated that home form is not something that can continue to be relied upon if the quality isn’t there on the pitch. There are concerns that if Morgan Whittaker can be shut down, then Plymouth struggle to get much going offensively. With Luton continually keeping their opponents under or around 1 xG, Luton should be favoured in this match. Taking 1.87 on the straight Luton win is a good bet.
For a best bet in terms of value it is worth looking at Mark McGuinness of Luton. The big central defender is new to Luton having become their big summer signing at the end of the transfer window, and in his four Championship starts he has had seven shots, five of them coming in the last match.
Two of those shots have been on target, and with Luton’s investment in their backroom staff, they have spent some time looking at their set pieces. While Luton do have many targets, it seems that McGuinness has been designated as a key man to find from corners and wide free kicks, and at 3.25 for a shot on target, something that has happened in two of the four matches so far. McGuinness is overpriced at 31.0 first goalscorer and 14.0 anytime goalscorer as well.
A further bet is recommended for Tahith Chong to commit one foul or more at 1.67. Chong has committed four in his last three matches, and he has started each match and completed over 75 minutes on each occasion.
📂 Plymouth v Luton Cheat Sheet
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📊 Plymouth Form and Stats
There have been signs of competency from Plymouth after a very difficult start, getting battered 0-4 at SHeffield Wednesday on opening weekend, performances have definitely improved, especially at home.
The Pilgrims’ only win so far this season in the league came last time that they played at Home Park against a Sunderland side who have maintained a 100% record aside from their trip to Plymouth, so this is no mean feat.
However, they were outclassed again last weekend against West Brom, a team which Luton would expect to be on a par with when the season comes to a close. The 2.33 xG that Plymouth conceded to the Baggies made it five matches out of six in which they conceded over 1.5 xG in the Championship, and they are also 22nd in the league for xG created.
Three of Plymouth’s matches have seen both teams score, and only two have gone over 2.5 goals.
📊 Luton Form and Stats
It is probably too early to suggest that Luton are on a comeback trail, but they have won their last two matches. Both wins were by single-goal margins, 1-0 at Millwall, and 2-1 at home to Sheffield Wednesday, and neither performance was particularly impressive, indeed, the Hatters were arguably better earlier in the season when they weren’t winning.
Undoubtedly it is better to play worse and win though, and it is those six points gained in the last two matches that could inspire Luton to an improved period of form.
Luton have only scored two goals from open play so far in their six Championship matches, and only five in total from 8.2 xGF, so while the Hatters are 19th for goals for, they are actually ninth for xGF in the Championship.
Positive news for Luton comes in the defensive performance metrics. They are sixth best in the league for xGA at 5.4 over six matches, so just less than 1 xGA per match. They have kept each opponent that they have faced away from home under 1 xG.
Of their six Championship matches, three have seen both teams score and the same three matches all went over 2.5 goals as well.
⚔️ Plymouth v Luton Head-to-Head
This was a League Two fixture as recently as 2017 until Luton and then Plymouth travelled through the league pyramid.
Indeed, this fixture has been played in three of the four top divisions of English football, all except the top tier. However, because of the movement of the clubs of late, there is little relevant information to be taken from the head-to-head.
The most recent meeting of the clubs was the League One season that Luton got promoted from in 2019. In that season the match at Home Park finished 0-0, and the earlier Kenilworth Road fixture was an emphatic Luton 5-1 win.
Overall, Plymouth lead the head-to-head 30-25 with 23 draws in the history of it as well.
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* We recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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