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Portugal v Scotland
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Kick Off: Sunday 8th September at 19:45
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Competition: Nations League
Scotland travel to Portugal on Sunday for their second Nations League Group A1 clash.
Steve Clarke’s men were the victims of a self-inflicted sucker punch on Thursday as they suffered a 3-2 loss at home to Poland in a game they dominated. Defensive errors cost the Scots as they came back from two down to level but still came out empty handed.
Portugal, meanwhile, defeated Croatia 2-1 to kick off their campaign with an impressive victory that was marked by Cristiano Ronaldo’s 900th career goal. Can he add to that tally in Lisbon and can Roberto Martinez’s side make it two wins from two?
Portugal v Scotland Best Bets
Backing Portugal here on a -1 handicap makes a good deal of sense given the sheer scoring power they possess, plus the fact that Scotland’s depth is poor and key players such as McTominay and Billy Gilmour have only played limited minutes this season. On offer at 1.67, this looks a strong price.
Expect much of the hosts’ threat to come down the left. Rafael Leao as an anytime scorer at 2.8 looks an attractive price.
Bruno Fernandes, meanwhile, is liable to concede a free kick or two against a combative and dogged Scotland midfield. He is 1.53 to commit one or more fouls.
McGinn is 1.73 to win two or more fouls, which he has done in six of his last seven competitive international matches.
Finally, Portugal to win Over 7.5 corners looks outstanding at 2.55 given they averaged 8.25 corners per 90 at the Euros and should dominate this game territorially
📂 Portugal v Scotland Cheat Sheet
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📊 Portugal Form and Stats
It’s been a rather up-and-down year for Portugal internationally. While there have been some impressive highs, such as crushing Sweden 5-2 in a March friendly or even overcoming Croatia 2-1 last Thursday, they failed to live up to their potential at Euro 2024.
Roberto Martinez’s side won their opening games against the Czech Republic and Turkey, needing a stoppage-time winner to snatch the first 2-1. After losing 2-0 to Georgia, they then needed penalties to overcome Slovenia after a scoreless draw. Ultimately, their luck ran out against France as they exited on spot-kicks having gone over 360 minutes without a goal in regulation play or extra-time.
Cristiano Ronaldo’s scoreless performance in Germany had been the focus on much of the resultant postmortem. He had 22 shots at Euro 2024 – the second-highest figure in the tournament – including nine on target, generating 3.6xG but failed to net.
It was curious to see Portugal’s goals dry up. They had scored at least twice in 10 of their previous 12 international matches. Their other metrics, such as shots on target and corners won, a tournament high 8.25 per 90, both remained healthy.
Al-Nassr striker Ronaldo, though, dominated his side. Only Bruno Fernandes otherwise hit double figures in shots, reaching 10 exactly, while Ballon d’Or-nominated midfielder Vitinha’s three efforts on target were the next best after Ronaldo.
These trends continued in the 2-1 win over Croatia. Ronaldo and Fernandes had four shots each, both hitting the target twice and the former scoring, while Vitinha had a couple of digs without working the keeper before going off injured. The PSG man will miss this clash.
Both assists, meanwhile, came down the left, with Nuno Mendes and Bruno Fernandes getting the decisive passes.
In midweek, meanwhile, Portugal only gave up five fouls in what was a remarkably clean game. Only once in their last nine competitive fixtures have they given up double figures in free kicks.
Bruno Fernandes is the most prolific criminal among their regulars. He has given up at least one free kick in his last eight internationals and in 12 of his last 13.
📊 Scotland Form and Stats
Scotland’s performance against Poland in midweek both confirmed and confounded much of what Steve Clarke’s side have been about in recent months.
On the positive side, there was a fresher, more attacking approach. Scotland were more aggressive out of possession and sought to force the game to their rivals, dominating possession and territory. This was the aspect of their play that contrasted to recent performances. Their three shots on target against Poland equalled their total at the European Championship.
And then there was Scott McTominay popping up with another goal (plus one that was disallowed). He remains the overwhelming threat, having scored seven times in his last 12 competitive international matches.
John McGinn, who won nine fouls at Euro 2024 at a rate of 3.46 per 90, was a nuisance, winning five more fouls.
But on the flip side, Scotland remain horribly out of form. Defeat means they have won only one of their last 13 matches, a 2-0 struggle in Gibraltar in a Euro 2024 warm-up encounter.
Equally, the familiar frailties were apparent in defence. Scotland have now conceded three or more against Poland, Netherlands, Germany, France, England and Norway within the last 12 months. It is an alarming statistic before visiting such a powerful offensive side.
Centre-back Grant Hanley and right-back Anthony Ralston, who each conceded a midweek penalty, also gave up two free kicks. They also gave up four apiece in Germany this summer at a rate of 1.6 and 1.38 per 90 respectively.
Similarly, Scotland continued their trend of being poor at winning corners. After winning just seven in Germany, they earned only two in midweek. Here, though, it is worth noting that McTominay moved from being a taker to a target.
⚔️ Portugal v Scotland Head-to-Head
There is very little recent history between Scotland and Portugal, with just one meeting in over 20 years. That came at Hampden in a friendly back in 2018, when Helder Costa, Eder and Bruma were all on target for Fernando Santos’ team before Steven Naismith got one back in stoppage time.
John McGinn, Andy Robertson and Scott McKenna remain in the squad from those that took the field for Scotland that day, with Ryan Christie an unused substitute.
Remarkably, Ruben Dias is the only member of the Portugal team from Hampden that day who might play.
Portugal are undefeated against Scotland in six games dating back to 1980, conceding only two goals across those fixtures.
Football Betting Predictions at Andy’s Bet Club
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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