In this article…
Portugal v Slovenia
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Kick Off: Monday 1st July at 17:00
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Watch Live: ITV1
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Competition: Euro 2024
The second of Monday’s two games takes place in Frankfurt, as Group F winners Portugal take on Group C’s third-place finishers Slovenia.
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Portugal have their eyes on a second European Championship title after their triumph in France in 2016 and this looks to be a potentially favourable beginning to the knockout stages, before a tricky route unfolds in the later rounds.
Slovenia finished third in Group C after their goalless draw with England, they almost secured a place in the knockout rounds after two matches when they held a 1-0 lead against Serbia in the second group game, only to concede a very late equaliser.
In the end though, three draws was enough to secure a qualification place and the first time that Slovenia have qualified from any group stage in a major tournament since independence from Yugoslavia in the early 1990s.
Portugal won Group F after only two matches, a late Francisco Conceicao winner in the opening match against Czech Republic made a huge difference and allowed Portugal to play with the freedom to put Turkey to the sword in the second match, 3-0, which, in turn, gave Roberto Martinez the chance to rest all of his frontline players, a rare luxury in tournament football.
Portugal v Slovenia Best Bets
Portugal continue to look like one of the best teams in the tournament, even if the notion of having a second XI capable of going deep into this tournament was shaken by their display and defeat to Georgia, 2-0.
They are too short a price though to recommend backing Portugal to win. One would have to favour Portugal given their form, their players, and their ranking, and given the goals that they have scored, combining Portugal to win with over 2.5 goals is a solid choice here.
However, in terms of a best bet a potential angle would be to look at the cards markets.
Portugal’s matches at the Euros have seen three, five, and four yellow cards in them, whereas Slovenia saw three, six, and five in their group games. That is an average of four per game for Portugal matches and 4.67 for Slovenia matches.
Interestingly, four yellow cards were also given in the friendly between the two in March. There looks to be plenty of potential for fouls, especially in midfield and with good dribblers wide for Portugal, so attacking the over 3.5 cards line and potentially the over 4.5 card line at 2.37 is the best angle of attack here.
📂 Portugal v Slovenia Cheat Sheet
There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets and we encourage you to find your own formula to pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.
You can find Portugal v Slovenia match stats on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
📊 Portugal Form and Stats
In terms of competitive internationals, the defeat to Georgia in the last group game was the first time that Portugal hadn’t won in 12 matches. Their last defeat before that was in the World Cup quarter-final against Morocco.
Portugal were dominant in their qualifying group, coming into the Championship with the best record of any qualifier in just about any positive metric one could wish for. Maximum points, most goals, highest xG, fewest goals conceded, and lowest xG conceded.
They did lose in two of the friendlies post-qualification and pre-tournament, one to Slovenia, and also one to Croatia in the June friendlies.
The first-choice team have been very dominant in their two fixtures at the tournament. Both matches that the first XI played in the group saw them create over 1 xG more than their opponents.
📊 Slovenia Form and Stats
Draws have been the name of the game for the Slovenians for the last four matches, contributing to nine matches unbeaten altogether.
Slovenia had a really positive qualification campaign, tying on points with top of the group Denmark, and only losing out on top spot on head-to-head record.
They have been impressive in their 4-4-2 shape in this tournament, posing a threat, able to possess the ball, but, most of all, by being very well drilled out of possession. They have lost the xG battle in all three of their matches in the tournament so far, but that is partly due to their style of play and looking to soak up pressure.
⚔️ Portugal v Slovenia Head-to-Head
The only match between the nations actually happened just before the tournament began.
The pair met in March in a friendly in Ljubljana and it was Slovenia who emerged victorious in a relatively even encounter by two goals to nil.
Slovenia scored two very well worked goals in that encounter, through both of their ever-present central midfielders, Adam Cerin and Timi Elsnik. The fact that it was one of the two central midfielders in a 4-4-2 breaking into the box to provide the finishes demonstrates how well refined and balanced their system is.
One would expect Roberto Martinez, his coaches, and his players would’ve learned a lot from the experience of playing against Slovenia in that friendly, and perhaps this time will find more answers than they did during the match in March. At least five of the Portuguese starting XI from that day are likely to start in this match, and the same for the vast majority of the Slovenian side.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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