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PSG v Milan
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Date: Wednesday 25th October
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Competition: Champions League
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Kick off: 20:00
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Watch Live: TNT Sports 4
Matchday three of the Champions League group stage, and what a start we have had. Perhaps the biggest shock is Newcastle who currently sit at the top of the “Group of Death”, above PSG, AC Milan, and Borussia Dortmund in what is their first appearance in the Champions League in over 20 years.
PSG are one point behind them and are set to host AC Milan on Wednesday evening. Both teams will consider their start to this Champions League campaign to have been fairly mediocre. The hosts started with a resounding 2-0 win over Dortmund, seeing the majority of the ball and taking the most corners and shots. Their second game ended as a 4-1 loss to Newcastle, yet they still had 73% possession and more corners in the game.
As for AC Milan, their results so far have been two draws, both 0-0, against Newcastle and Dortmund. The visitors looked decent in both of those games, posting at least six corners and 14 shots in each. In their game against Newcastle, they managed an impressive 25 shots at goal, hitting the target nine times. They will be hoping for the three points on Wednesday evening.
This game promises to be a thrilling match-up, full of action and with plenty of betting potential. Therefore, this article aims to break down the main underlying stats behind this game, creating two levels of bet builders from these stats.
The first level is coming in at a nice price of 3/1, whilst the second level builds on the first to create a slightly higher odds option, at 14/1.
If you fancy a full breakdown of bet builder stats, head over to the Opta-powered Bet Builder Stats section of our website. It’s available for all Champions League matches this week, meaning that we have you covered for your PSG v Milan bet builder.
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PSG are full of goals
PSG have averaged 1.94 goals per match this season across all competitions, and 2.22 domestically. Narrowly underperforming their expected goals, in a smaller sample size, since they have been averaging 2.02xG (2.23xG domestically).
Unsurprisingly their main danger man up top has been Kylian Mbappe, who has scored eight goals in eight games domestically for PSG.
PSG team news
Although boasting an almost full-strength starting XI, PSG will suffer without the likes of Presnel Kimpembe and Nuno Mendes, who are out of selection ahead of the game due to achilles and hamstring injuries. Marco Asensio is also set to be out due to a foot injury.
Slovakian defender Milan Skriniar now regularly starts for PSG, but his previous club was Inter Milan. This means that he has a great deal of experience playing against AC Milan, winning 11 games and only losing four when playing against them in the Derby di Milano.
AC Milan’s strong home record
Italian giants AC Milan may be disappointed with how they have begun their Champions League campaign, however, they are performing very well domestically. The Rossoneri currently sit in second place in the Serie A, winning seven games from nine.
Currently leading with the most goal contributions is none other than Olivier Giroud, who has seven goal contributions over eight starts, despite being 37 years old. He leads the way for goals with fellow ex-Chelsea player Christian Pulisic (4).
AC Milan team news
AC Milan have a number of injuries, with Marco Sportiello, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Ismael Bennacer, and Samuel Chukwueze all scheduled to be unavailable on Wednesday evening. However, fans will be happy that Mike Maignan will be eligible to play this game after missing his last due to suspension.
Stefano Pioli’s favourite front three of Rafael Leao, Giroud and Pulisic are all predicted to start against PSG on Wednesday evening, providing plenty of goal threat between them.
PSG v Milan Cheat Sheet
Here it is. The PSG v AC Milan Cheat Sheet. All the stats used later in this article, and much more, can be found on the Cheat Sheet; everything ranging from corners to players’ average shots per game.
The two levels of bets below have also been carefully selected from a combination of player form, historical averages, and the perceived value of the selection. Again, should any of the levels pique your interest, then take advantage of Paddy Power’s incredible sign-up offer by placing £10 on level 1 or 2, and then see the £40 in free bets roll into your account.
For more extensive bet builder info, make sure to head over to our Bet Builder Stats page, where we have Opta-powered statistical breakdowns of major leagues across the UK and Europe, including the PSG v Milan game.
To make the most of our PSG v Milan bet builder tips you can sign up to Paddy Power below. Stake up to £10 on your preferred option, and get £40 in free bet builders no matter what the result.
ABC’s 3/1 PSG v Milan bet builder
⚽ Both teams to score
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Odds: 1.67
Both PSG and AC Milan have been averaging high amounts of goals for and against so far this season. Across all competitions, the hosts have scored 1.94 goals, conceding 1.00, and the visitors have been scoring 1.56 per game, conceding 1.13.
For both teams, it is the case that both their expected goals for and against exceed the actual level of goals they have accumulated.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🎯 Olivier Giroud to have 1+ shots on target
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Odds: 1.50
We have already seen that Giroud is Milan’s joint-top goalscorer this season. The Frenchman has been averaging 0.9 shots on target per game this season.
Furthermore, Giroud is down as Milan’s main penalty taker, increasing his chances of a shot on target on.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🛑 Christian Pulisic to commit 1+ fouls
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Odds: 1.40
Pulisic has committed at least one foul in both of Milan’s first two games in the Champions League, even despite coming off the bench to play just 30 minutes in one of these games. He has averaged 1.32 fouls per game this season and looks to be a prime candidate for a foul.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🚩 Over 2.5 Milan corners
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Odds: 1.30
This selection has landed in four of AC Milan’s last five matches, and has landed in both games they have played so far in the Champions League. Away against Dortmund in front of the “Yellow Wall”, the visitors managed seven corners, and when playing at home against Newcastle they saw six corners. Their season average so far is 4.63 corners per game.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
*Bet link only available on mobile
ABC’s 14/1 PSG v Milan bet builder
⚽ Both teams to score
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Odds: 1.67
Another primary reason for choosing this selection is due to the current form of both teams’ attacking units. For PSG, they are expected to start Mbappe, Goncalo Ramos and Ousmane Dembele, who have a combined total of 13 domestic goal contributions between them.
The Rossoneri are expected to play Leao, Giroud and Pulisic, who have a combined total of 18 domestic goal contributions. The level of quality both sides have shown in front of goal has been second to none, and this can be expected to continue on Wednesday evening.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🎯 Olivier Giroud to have 1+ shots on target
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Odds: 1.50
A large part of Giroud’s game is the aerial threat that he provides. The Frenchman has a career average of 3.3 aerial duels won. AC Milan will be looking to exploit this from corners and crosses, and this could prove to be problematic for PSG.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🛑 Christian Pulisic to commit 1+ foul
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Odds: 1.40
Another angle for a Pulisic foul is through looking at who his opponent is: Lucas Hernandez. Hernandez has been averaging the second highest fouls won of any PSG player this season (1.67), according to the PSG v AC Milan Cheat Sheet. Combining this with Pulisic’s high foul average, it will be surprising if he doesn’t commit one.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🚩 Over 3.5 Milan corners
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Odds: 1.80
This selection sees Milan’s corners increase to over 3.5. The main reason for this is due to the amount of corners that PSG have been conceding. Both domestically and in the Champions League, the Parisians have conceded an average of four corners per game. In their most recent game against Strasbourg, despite winning 3-0, PSG let their opponents take six corners in the game.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🥅🟨 Achraf Hakimi to score or be booked
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Odds: 2.40
This final selection is backed up heavily by the Cheat Sheet. Hakimi is the highest ranking player for PSG in terms of fouls committed per game (1.65). He has also committed fouls in both of his Champions League games so far, receiving a booking in one of those appearances.
Hakimi currently ranks as PSG’s second-top goalscorer, having found the back of the net three times in Ligue 1 and once so far in the Champions League.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets *
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing
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