For a PSG bet builder, backing a home win is a logical move, but odds of 1.67 look a little short given how difficult Real Sociedad have been to beat this season. Instead, supporting the Spanish side to win with a handicap of +1.5 looks a very healthy price at 1.33. After all, La Real have not lost by more than a single goal in any competition since April 15th 2023.

With Sociedad generally imposing tight matches on whomever they face, it is logical to believe that there won’t be many goals in this game. Four of their last eight La Liga matches have finished 0-0 while the total goals in their games over the spell is only seven.

While PSG score freely at home domestically – they have scored 30 goals in 11 home matches in Ligue 1 – Luis Enrique’s side have typically found it more difficult to find the net in Europe. Indeed, during their group matches, their three home matches produced only seven goals. Admittedly, PSG were in the Group of Death with Dortmund, Newcastle and Milan, which complicated matters, but Les Parisiens are not especially free-scoring.

The pattern of this encounter is likely to be PSG dominating but finding it difficult to break the resistance of their well-organised opponents.

Rested at the weekend following a knock he had picked up days earlier, Kylian Mbappe is expected to come roaring into this game and will, inevitably, be PSG’s main threat in front of goal.

The PSG stats show that he has nearly 5 efforts per game and 2.14 shots on target per match. There is no one else who will be on display who averages even 1 shot on target per 90. Coming into this game fresh after a week of rest, Mbappe is the player PSG are pinning their hopes on in this encounter.

The striker has 30 goals for the season in 29 matches in all competitions, which is 21 more than any of his team-mates, and will hit free kicks and penalties. A price of 1.91 on him to net anytime, therefore, seems particularly generous, even if he only has three in six in the Champions League this season.

A wildcard pick for PSG is the rapidly improving Bradley Barcola. In his last eight domestic games, he has a goal or an assist in five. Off the back of this form, he is likely to start and is 2.6 to score or assist.

Mikel Oyarzabal is the main scoring threat from the visitors’ perspective, with the PSG v Real Sociedad Cheat Sheet highlighting his eight goals. Perhaps a more consistent threat, though, is Takefusa Kubo, who with 0.90 shots on target per 90 looks nice value to test Gianluigi Donnarumma at least once at a price of 2.0.

There are some interesting prices on the fouls market ahead of this encounter, with Bradley Barcola particularly eye-catching in this regard. The young winger, as previously discussed, is likely to get substantial minutes in this game and does have a habit of bringing a high foul count. With 1.32 fouls per 90, the PSG stats show he is likely to have the highest figure among the hosts’ starting XI.

Barcola is poised to be up against Mikel Merino, who has Real Sociedad’s highest fouls won count of 2.45. As such, the former Lyon man is interesting value at 2.50 for 2 or more fouls.

Lucas Hernandez is the other eye-catching PSG player in this regard, but as his likely opponent Andre Silva wins just over one foul per match, backing the full back to commit just 1 foul or more is the recommended play at 1.36.

PSG, meanwhile, have direct runners with the ball in wide areas who are liable to draw fouls. Ousmane Dembele draws 1.92 fouls per match and can be backed at 1.53 to win a couple of fouls while Barcola is an interesting 3.10 to do likewise given that Merino also commits the most fouls for the visitors.

In terms of bookings, meanwhile, Igor Zubeldia is strong value at 3.0 given that he has been carded a club-high eight times this season and will square up against Mbappe, who need only put him in trouble once to force the type of defensive action that will draw a card.