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PSV v Dortmund Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

PSV v Dortmund Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Tuesday 20 February, 20242 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...

PSV v Dortmund

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Kick Off: Tuesday 20th February at 20:00
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Competition: Champions League
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Watch Live: TNT Sports 2

The second week of the round of 16 fixtures in this season's Champions League is here, and as ever, our experts have been all over the football going on in Europe. Alongside our PSV v Dortmund bet builder tips, make sure you check out our Champions League bet builder tips, including those for Inter v Atletico Madrid; our Champions League accumulator for Tuesday, as well as plenty more free expert football betting predictions from all corners of the globe.

Our football betting cheat sheet tool will be on hand all weekend to guide you through every European game across all three competitions. Inside, we have everything you need to craft a strong bet builder. Before you back your bet builder though, make sure to check out our free bet offers and a selection of the best bookmaker offers to help you bet smarter.

One of the most intriguing Last 16 Champions League ties is PSV v Dortmund, with not much separating the teams from a betting standpoint. German giants Dortmund are the slight favourites to prevail but with home advantage in the first leg, PSV know that the expectation is on their shoulders to get a result. Peter Bosz has done a brilliant job in Eindhoven and they remain unbeaten in the Eredivisie with 20 wins and 2 draws.

Dortmund surprised everyone by winning a group that contained PSG, Newcastle and AC Milan. Their defensive record was especially impressive and their experience in this competition can’t be dismissed lightly. Dortmund have been too inconsistent this season but have settled well since the winter break in Germany and now look likely to finish in the top four again. They are playing better football so should travel to the Philips Stadion in a confident mood.

PSV v Dortmund Cheat Sheet

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You can find PSV v Dortmund match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.

🎯 Shooting stats: Expect both teams to pepper the target

This has the potential to be the highest-scoring Champions League tie of the week. PSV average a massive 8.86 shots on target this season and Dortmund a healthy 5.32. Of course, those stats are inflated for PSV because of their domestic dominance but they rank 4th for the most shots on target in the Champions League group stage with an average of 5.80 per game. We don’t think it’s asking too much for them to fire in over 4.5 on target here. Dortmund will fight fire with fire and offer plenty themselves. Their shots on target line is even lower at 3.5 and again it’s the overs which looks quite attractive. In a very tough group, the Germans averaged exactly 4.50 shots on target per game so they should cover this with relative comfort in Eindhoven. This does not have the feel of a tight and cagey game so the open nature may well lead to several attempts.

Predictions:

⚽ PSV to have 5+ shots on target @ 1.57

⚽ Dortmund to have 4+ shots on target @ 1.50

🚩 Corners stats: Both teams should rack up the corners

PSV average a ridiculous 7.45 corners per game. That number comes down to 4.66 in the Champions League but that is still a decent figure, especially when you consider the fact they played Arsenal twice. They are at home and should be on the front foot in quite an entertaining game, so we think we can rely on at least five PSV flag kicks. Dortmund average a healthy 5.66 corners per game in the Champions League this season which is again very impressive when you consider the calibre of opponent they faced in the group stage. Dortmund will have their moments in this match and have dangerous wide players who could all win corners. Over 8.5 total corners and it looks quite a safe play when you consider the numbers and the expected game dynamics.

Predictions:

⚽ Over 8.5 total corners @ 1.57

🛑 Fouls stats: Maatsen and Saibari to test the referee

Neither side are known for their dirty play but there are a couple of individuals who stand out. Ian Maatsen is priced as big as 1.29 to commit one or more fouls, which looks big considering his seasonal average of 1.50. The Chelsea loanee, who excelled at Burnley last season, has been slotting in at left back for Dortmund. He’s young and energetic but can sometimes get carried away and press too much. Moroccan midfielder Ismael Saibari is going to be PSV’s main enforcer in midfield. He averages 1.58 fouls per 90 minutes and there is no way he is going to be able to play a clean game in such a high profile fixture. He’s 1.10 to commit one or more fouls which is too short to consider, but the 1.57 on offer that he commits two or more fouls looks like a value bet builder leg. Unless his first offence produces a card, we'll be in a strong position.

Predictions:

⚽ Ian Maatsen to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.29

⚽ Ismael Saibari to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.57

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