• Middlesbrough arrive at Loftus Road pushing for automatic promotion, sitting inside the top two and knowing every point matters in a tight Championship race

• QPR have won three of their last four at Loftus Road, giving them confidence heading into a tough test against one of the Championship’s promotion favourites

• Boro have had the edge in this fixture recently, winning four of the last five meetings between the two sides

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📈 QPR v Middlesbrough Form & Stats

QPR are one of the teams in the middle of the league that don’t seem to have much to play for, even with 11 games still to play. They are in 15th, 12 points above the relegation zone and 10 points off the play-offs. As such, their recent form is a bit of a concern as they appear to be slightly going through the motions, and consecutive defeats to nil, albeit against Southampton and Sheffield United, don’t bode well.

They have now only won two of their last ten matches in all competitions, but there are some positives in their form too, especially at home. They have a strong home xG differential, especially over their last 10 league matches at home, which stands at +0.81 xG, albeit that is massively helped by their match against Blackburn. 

Middlesbrough got a really impressive and important victory last time out against Birmingham away from home. They played with confidence and authority despite Kim Hellberg changing his system away from the 4-2-3-1 that they had been playing into a three at the back. They remained clearly well coached, and their ability to play through teams remained undiminished. That win meant that they have now suffered only one defeat in their last ten in the league, winning seven of those matches.

Even though their defeat to Coventry and subsequent draws at home to Oxford and Leicester, Boro have continued to look dangerous going forward. They have created 1.8 xG or more in each of their last five matches, averaging 1.72 xG under the management of Hellberg. The Swede’s xG differential per match has grown to +0.45 xG, and it is +0.3 xG away from home, so they are good at creating more than their opponents even on their travels.

📔 QPR v Middlesbrough Formation & Team News

QPR are able to recall Rhys Norrington-Davies here, having not been able to call upon his services against his parent club last time. This means that Rangers are going to have an experienced back line of Ronnie Edwards, Jimmy Dunne, Jake Clarke-Salter, and Norrington-Davies.

In front of them, Julian Stephan is likely to go for a 4-4-2 shape, with Daniel Bennie continuing to get his chance after being impressive for the U21 team for the first half of the season. Harvey Vale will start on the right but look to drift into dangerous central areas, and similarly for Koki Saito on the left, making it more of a 4-2-2-2 in possession.

It isn’t that easy to predict what Kim Hellberg will do with Middlesbrough. He switched to a 3-4-1-2 shape against Birmingham, but that could’ve been a specific game plan for that match. However, that performance was so impressive that he could be tempted to stick with that, and it might make tactical sense to do so given the potential for QPR to play two up front as well.

There are no new injury concerns for Hellberg to deal with, so picking the same XI is an option, with Morgan Whittaker the main likely alteration if Hellberg does want to change something. Alan Browne could also employ his versatility if a freshening up is required.

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