While Real Madrid are favourites, key injuries to their defence might grant Vallecano more attacking opportunities than anticipated. Vallecano average 4.94 corners per game this season, taking 3 or more in 4 of their last 5 matches. Impressively, they’ve achieved this in all but 1 home fixture.

Madrid concede an average of 4.43 corners per game, with 3 or more corners conceded in 11 of their last 12 matches, including 5 of their last 6 away games.

Both teams’ disciplinary records make this a strong selection. Vallecano average 2.35 cards per game, while their opponents draw 2 per game. Vallecano have seen 3 or more cards shown in their last 4 matches and in all but 1 home fixture this season, with 4 or more cards appearing in 4 matches.

Madrid’s card tally is similar, with 4+ cards appearing in 4 of their last 5 games. On the road, Madrid’s discipline dips slightly, but their opponents make up for it, with 3 or more cards landing in 7 of their last 8 away games, and 4 or more appearing in 3 of their last 4. This selection has also landed in their last 5 head-to-heads, showcasing the feisty nature of this matchup.

The 23-year-old has been effective when given opportunities, and with Kylian Mbappé sidelined due to injury, this selection is the even more compelling. Despite limited minutes, Rodyrgo has managed a shot on target in his last 2 games and in 4 of his last 5 appearances. When playing extended minutes, his average nears 1.47 on target per 90 minutes in his last 5 matches, showcasing his potential threat.

Defensive midfielder Ciss has a knack for committing fouls, averaging 1.07 per game and recording at least 1 foul in 7 of his last 8 appearances. Facing Jude Bellingham, who draws 1.37 fouls per game and frequently wins multiple fouls per match, Ciss is likely to add to his tally.

Vinícius marked his return with a goal against Atalanta midweek, taking his season tally to 13 goals across all competitions. However, his temperament has been less polished, picking up 7 yellow cards this season. With Mbappé sidelined, Vinícius is likely to attract attention both offensively and emotionally, making either outcome plausible.

Bellingham has been a revelation for Real Madrid this season, scoring in each of his last 4 games and 6 of his last 7. In addition, his 6 assists this season include 4 in his last 10 matches. Whether through scoring or playmaking, Bellingham remains pivotal to Madrid’s attacking output.

Valentín, often paired with Ciss in Vallecano’s midfield, faces a stern test against Madrid’s dynamic attack. Averaging 2 fouls per game, he has committed 2 or more in 5 of his last 9 appearances, with this number rising to 2.58 fouls per 90 minutes.

Vinícius’ explosive return adds immense pressure to Vallecano’s left flank. He has drawn 2 fouls in 5 of his last 8 matches and averages 2.58 fouls won per game. His ability to attract defenders and provoke challenges makes this selection particularly appealing.