The Madrid Derby has been a frequent occurrence this season, and this will be the fourth meeting between the sides with the visitors having had the better of the exchanges. The first game saw Atleti prevail 3-1 in the reverse fixture while it was Real Madrid that came out on top in the Spanish Super Cup semi final, and the latest meeting saw the visitors progress in the Copa del Rey in extra time.

However, Atletico Madrid haven’t won a competitive game at the Santiago Bernabéu since 2016 and the hosts are a different beast when playing on home soil. In fact, Ancelotti’s side have won 14 of their last 15 games in all competitions here and with the visitors being without the influential Alvaro Morata, this may turn out to be a very difficult assignment, especially as Real Madrid are challenging the title.

What’s interesting about the recent meetings during this campaign is just how open those games have been. A total of 18 goals have been scored, and there have been chances in abundance, in fact during those games, Real Madrid have amassed 24 shots on target whereas Atletico Madrid have had 22. There is every reason to suggest that trend continues and both teams are fancied to score.

These sides are very prolific in the final third and it’s no surprise to find them towards the top end of the shots on target standings this season. The hosts have amassed 136 efforts on goal at a rate of 6.18 per game while Atletico Madrid have had 116 on target at a rate of 5.27 per game. Therefore we can expect plenty of opportunities in this game, especially given the recent meetings this season.

The standout candidate for Real Madrid looks to be Vinicius Junior as the Brazilian is in a rich vein of form at the moment, having scored five in as many games. The forward has been relentless since returning from injury and is currently averaging 1.51 shots on target per game, accumulating 12 in his last five games, with a minimum of two in those matches, and he’s taken for a big game in this one.

For Atletico Madrid, Memphis Depay is fancied to take advantage of the fact that top scorer Alvaro Morata remains sidelined with injury. The Dutch international has struggled for playing time this season through his own injury issues, but he has scored three in his last three appearances as is likely to get a couple of chances during this game. Depay is averaging 1.44 on target per 90 minutes.

As you’d expect in a fiesty derby game, there is plenty of needle expected in this encounter, and the fouls market is a must for any bet bet builder. When looking at the recent three meetings between these sides this term, this has been a key feature. Atletico Madrid have racked up an eye watering 53 fouls (an average of 17.66) and Real Madrid have made 34 (an average of 11.33) and both will commit here.

In terms of likely candidates for the hosts, Dani Carvajal and Toni Kroos seem nailed on. The Spanish full back loves a foul, averaging almost one per game and was booked during the Copa del Rey encounter while making four fouls in the three meetings with Atleti this term. The German also made a foul in the latest game and will be against the combative duo of Koke and Rodrigo De Paul.

It’s those two midfielders for the visitors that are also the focus of attention. In the previous game, De Paul committed a staggering five fouls while Koke made three (as well as one foul in the other two meetings this season). Both were subsequently booked in that game, and they are likely to be involved in this fixture, especially in what is likely to be a competitive area of the field in the middle.

When looking at the possession statistics, it’s clear that Real Madrid enjoy plenty of the ball, and it’s no surprise to see that they average 59.4% in this metric. With that in mind, they are likely to win their fair share of corners and those markets are worth a second glance. Ancelotti’s charges rank highly in terms of a seasonal average earning 6.23 per game and they are likely to win a few in this game.

The focus of the selections here actually revolve around that average of 6.23, especially when you consider the recent head to head games this season and taking the hosts to achieve at least six corners looks to represent plenty of value. Real Madrid’s count in those games reads 11, 8 and 9 and it seems they have really profited in this area against their rivals, so that’s the calculated play.

Looking a little more closely at those recent games, there is a standout bit of analysis that needs to be considered. Real Madrid successfully won the Corner Match Bet market in each of those matches at a canter, 11-6, 8-3 and 9-0, but that’s not really surprising. Reviewing the amount of corners that the visitors tend to win, that makes a lot of sense, with their seasonal average a mere 4.45 per game.