Real Madrid have the first leg of this tie at home and that gives them an excellent chance to pick up a positive result, something they did when they hosted Barcelona at the Bernabéu in LaLiga this season, winning 3-1.

Los Blancos did lose the other two of the three most recent Clásicos, and quite emphatically, as they were thrashed 4-0 at home in LaLiga last March and played off the park in a 3-1 Super Cup final loss in Saudi Arabia in January. But, in both those heavy defeats, Real Madrid were missing key players and Barça were at full strength. That is not the case this Thursday.

Barcelona will travel to the capital missing the injured Pedri, Ousmane Dembélé and Robert Lewandowski, three of their best players so far this season, especially in an attacking sense as they’re the top three goalscorers in the squad. Real Madrid, on the other hand, have been welcoming players back from injury and only have a left-back absence to worry about.

Perhaps Barcelona will recover players from injury and go through to the final when they host the second leg, but it’s hard to see them picking up a win on the night on Thursday, especially as they enter the came on the back of two defeats.

With Barcelona missing their top three goalscorers, this is much more likely to be a low-scoring Clásico. Pedri, Dembélé and Lewandowski have netted 40 of the team’s 75 goals across all competitions this season, which is 53 percent, and that will be a relief for Real Madrid’s back line.

At the other end, Real Madrid will have their two main attacking threats available, in Vinícius and Karim Benzema, but Barcelona have done a good job of containing those two when starting Ronald Araújo on the right of their defence, something they’re expected to do here. With the Uruguayan on the right, Vinícius has never scored or assisted.

Another reason to believe that this will be a low-scoring Clásico is the unique situation of this being a first leg. We don’t get many two-legged ties between these two giants, but the fact that the cup finalist will be decided at the Camp Nou in early April means that neither team has to go all out on Thursday. A draw would actually suit both, so we might see a situation where neither Carlo Ancelotti nor Xavi forces the issue if it’s level late on.

This century, there have been five two-legged Copa del Rey or Champions League ties between these two foes and not one of the first legs produced more than three goals, as there were two 1-1 draws in addition to a 2-1 Barcelona win, a 2-0 Barcelona win and a 2-0 Real Madrid win.

Injury to Lewandowski was the worst possible news for Barcelona this week given the other absences to their front line with Dembélé out and Ansu Fati facing a fitness race against time, but it does open up an opportunity for Ferran Torres.

The Spanish international will be in the front three for Barcelona and is likely to alternate between a wide role and the number nine position. At the weekend, he started against Almería but was limited to a wider role where he was less involved in front of goal given Lewandowski’s presence through the middle.

When playing as a centre-forward this season, the former Valencia man has averaged 3.05 shots per 90, which is even higher than his season average of 2.75 shots per 90. He does not shy away in Clásicos either, with 2.67 shots per 90 against Real Madrid since joining Barcelona, including six in last season’s Clásico win at the Bernabéu.

His accuracy is not the best at just 30%, and so shots is a better bet than shots on target, but he certainly attempts to score regularly and will be leading the line for Barça on Thursday night.

Barcelona defender Ronald Araújo is likely to be in the thick of the action up against Real Madrid on Thursday night, with plenty of the action heading his way. Araújo is likely to switch with Jules Koundé and move out to his less natural position of right-back in order to combat the threat of Vinícius Júnior down Real Madrid’s left flank. It’s a battle which he has won in the past, but certainly puts his defensive abilities to the test.

He will also be incredibly dismayed by the appointment of José Luis Munuera Montero as the referee. He has shown Araújo a yellow card in the last five consecutive matches that he has refereed where Araújo has been on the pitch. That includes every game that he’s played since he was no longer partnered by the more experienced Gerard Piqué, who was alongside him last time Munuera Montero did not book Araújo in January 2022.

In addition to that, Araújo’s usual composure is not quite so prominent in Clásicos. From four involvements in the fixture since his breakthrough into the first team, he has been shown a yellow card in two of them, including the Spanish Super Cup final only a few weeks ago.