Roma v AC Milan

• Roma must win here to keep their top four hopes alive

• Roma had won each of the last three head-to-head meetings up until this season, but Milan have won and drawn in their two clashes this campaign

• Both sides' matches tend to be low margin, with under 3.5 goals being scored in 78% of Roma's matches and in 75% of Milan's

The stakes are high once again in Serie A, as Roma and AC Milan clash in a battle which will surely rule out one, if not both teams, from the top-four race. At present, Juventus occupy the all-important fourth position with 64 points, tied with Lazio, who face Inter on Sunday.

Roma are very much still in the race, with 63 points, although Milan might struggle to compete, sitting four points behind Juventus with 60 points.

That said, even if UCL qualification might be out of reach for Conceicao’s men, the Europa League and Conference League positions are very much up for grabs, something that will have been made much more significant by Milan’s Coppa Italia final loss to Bologna, which would have guaranteed a Europa League spot.

In all likelihood, a draw does neither side any good as they’d be relying on too many points dropped from their rivals. Only a Roma win would properly shake things up at the top, and with a stronger head-to-head record than Lazio, they would find themselves competing with Juventus for the final UCL spot, albeit relying on them dropping points against either Venezia or Udinese.

⭐ Roma v AC Milan Predictions and Best Bets

Backing Roma to win at 2.38 is a smart option for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, the Giallorossi’s form is the superior of the two, as we’ll cover in further detail in the next section, but there also exists another significant factor at play. 

Milan are likely to be dejected, both physically and mentally, following their midweek Coppa Italia final loss, whereas Roma will have enjoyed an extra few days' rest. Speculation around Conceicao’s future could add to the unrest in the Milan camp. This is all in stark contrast to Roma, who know they absolutely have to win in order to secure UCL qualification, which they’ll stand a decent chance of doing if they can pick up three points here.

Another smart bet is backing under 3.5 goals, which has come home in 78% of Roma’s league matches and 75% of Milan’s. The selection has also been a smart option in recent times, with each of Roma’s last eight producing fewer than four goals, averaging a mere 1.5. Backers in Milan’s matches will have gone home happy following 15 of their most recent 19 clashes, including five of the previous six.

⚪ Will Conceição's Small Gains Keep Him in the Job?

There has been a marked improvement under Conceicao, compared with Fonseca, who led the Rossoneri for their first 17 league games.

Unfortunately, this has been slightly less pronounced in the league, with Conceicao bringing their points per game up from 1.6 to 1.7 and their win percentage from 41% to 53%.

A Supercoppa Italiana win would have been topped off brilliantly, were Milan not to have their hopes scuppered by Bologna in the final. Notably, Milan beat rivals Inter in both cups, including a 3-0 thumping in the Coppa Italia semi-finals.

In the league, Milan’s form has been on the up, having now recorded three straight wins against Bologna, Genoa, and Venezia, however, they were firmly second best when falling to Atalanta just before.

Conceicao was cagey when asked about his future following the Coppa Italia exit, although most speculate he’ll be departing Milan after just five months at the Italian giants.

🔴 Roma Target Recovery Following First Loss in 2025

Before their recent setback against Atalanta, Roma had pieced together a remarkable 19-match unbeaten run in Serie A, collecting an impressive 47 points from a possible 57.

That stretch included just five draws, all against elite opponents in Lazio, Juventus, Napoli, Bologna, and Milan.

Their defensive solidity has been a stand-out since Ranieri took the reins for his third spell at the club, securing 9 clean sheets in their last 13 league outings, and not once conceding more than two since the Italian coach took over.

The transformation under Ranieri has been nothing short of dramatic, with Roma’s points-per-game tally soaring from 1.08 prior to his arrival to a commanding 2.08. 

If Roma were to secure Champions League qualification, the turnaround would have been unparalleled in Italian football, going back some distance. 

Though known for his humility, Ranieri must quietly be eyeing a Coach of the Season nod, despite only taking charge midway through the campaign.

📊 Roma v AC Milan Head-to-Head Key Stats

Recent history suggests that this could be a tight affair, with the teams fairly evenly matched over the last few seasons.

Roma had won each of the last three meetings up until this season, where, despite their woes, Milan have had the better of them, recording a win and a draw.

Only the most recent clash featured both Conceicao and Ranieri in control of their respective sides, with Milan emerging as the eventual 3-1 victors in the Coppa Italia on that occasion.

It was an end-to-end watch producing, 3.79xG, of which 2.04 was created by Milan, although it’s worth noting that this game unfolded at the San Siro, whereas it’ll be Roma hosting Saturday’s spectacle.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.