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Rotherham v Ipswich
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Date: Friday 20th October
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Competition: Championship
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Kick off: 20:00
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
One would be hard-pushed to find two fan bases whose feelings are further apart than these two at the moment. Rotherham United fans feel like they are staring blankly into the abyss as League One opens its arms with a warm embrace towards them. On the other side of this encounter, however, the fans of Ipswich Town are looking up towards the promised land of the Premier League.
There is a heck of a long way to go in the season though, we are less than a quarter of the way through, so there is time for both teams to change their fortunes. Rotherham have a massive injury crisis at the back. This is really impacting what Matt Taylor wants to do in terms of tactics and game style. The Millers are far from cut adrift and a couple of positive results will see them out of the bottom three. The potential big problem for Rotherham is that there aren’t very many soft targets in this division to overtake.
This is also Ipswich’s problem. They have coped incredibly well with adapting to the league, but the 2023/24 version of the Championship is a tough beast. There have been many instances of late where the league has had ‘crisis clubs’ or clubs that have made poor decisions along the way. There seems to be less of this at the moment, though social media will often tell you differently. That being said, there is a clear gulf between the way that these sides have performed so far this season. The international break may change things in terms of stalling momentum, but there are definitely some interesting angles to study these sides from a betting perspective.
This preview profiles a Rotherham v Ipswich bet builder at 3/1 and also a 12/1 shot for your consideration.
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Can Taylor turn the tide for Rotherham?
Matt Taylor was regarded as one of the brightest young managers in EFL management when he was at Exeter. Rotherham pounced when Paul Warne departed to take on the challenge at Derby, but it has felt like a bit of an uneasy marriage from the beginning. Rotherham had made a good start in 22/23, Taylor took over with the Millers in mid-table, but, in actual fact, that start had been built on unsustainable performance data. However, when the slide towards the relegation zone happened, Taylor took on the majority of the criticism.
At Exeter, Taylor had been able to work with the excellent academy they have there, and on a strict budget. He established an attractive, technical and attacking brand of football. Attempting to gradually change Rotherham’s style, from something that had been very different under Paul Warne for a number of years, has proven to be a tough ask. Putting aside the difficulty with injuries to defenders, Taylor hasn’t been able to make Rotherham a cohesive attacking force. They are bottom of the whole league for big chances created and shots on target. The midfield is neither defensively sound enough, nor creative enough to fulfil their purpose, and there is little threat from wide positions. A key strength under Warne, and also pretty important if you are going to have Jordan Hugill leading your attack.
There is still time to turn things around at Rotherham, but, if they lose this match, will Taylor be the man entrusted to try and keep the Millers up? Time will tell.
Rotherham team news
Given the injury problems, it is difficult to work out how Rotherham might set up. Taylor will be conscious of Ipswich’s attacking threat, so may deploy a 3-5-2 system but using full backs as wide central defenders.
This would work something like; Viktor Johansson in goal, behind Dexter Lembikisa, Lee Peltier, and Cohen Bramall with Fred Onyedinma and Seb Revan as wing-backs.
Midfield would consist of Christ Tiehi, Oliver Rathbone, and Cafu. Jordan Hugill will play up front with one of Sam Nombe, Andre Green or Georgie Kelly supporting him.
Kieran McKenna weaving his magic to give Ipswich genuine Premier League aspirations
It was a tough one to call in pre-season, how would Kieran McKenna’s Ipswich side adapt to life in the Championship? They didn’t even win League One, with Plymouth Argyle beating them to the title, but they had seriously impressed on almost every performance metric you want to look at. Murmurs were growing in Suffolk of a potential play-off challenge. Some went even further and suggested that promotion was attainable. The bookmakers liked them too, but definitely not to the extent that we are seeing at the moment from the Tractor Boys.
Their performance data is once again outstanding, and yet, there is barely a change from the personnel that played for them in League One. Massimo Luongo has been in from the start, George Hirst and Nathan Broadhead the same, all three were there when the promotion was sealed. There has been some impact from loanees Brandon Williams and Omari Hutchinson, Jack Taylor has covered some minutes since his permanent signing, but ostensibly this is a triumph of preparation, coaching, and performance.
The possibility of bigger clubs looking at McKenna was mentioned above. It has been said that when the Northern Irishman left a first team coaching role at Man United, they felt League One was far too low for him to drop. He may well be a Premier League manager soon, but it is difficult to envisage which clubs might be able to tempt McKenna away right now. Clubs involved in the Premier League relegation battle probably won’t interest McKenna, and there will be too much doubt from some of the more traditional and high-achieving Premier League clubs to take the perceived risk on someone who has no track record at the top level. McKenna will stay where he is for now, and that journey back to the Premier League could be completed with Ipswich this season.
Ipswich team news
Wes Burns is out for Ipswich, this will see some kind of change, potentially with Kayden Jackson coming in on the right flank. Vaclav Hladky will continue in goal, despite Christian Walton being very close to a return.
The team will set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation with Brandon Williams at right back, Luke Woolfenden and Cameron Burgess at centre back and Leif Davis at left back. Sam Morsy will captain the side from central midfield and it will probably be Massimo Luongo alongside him, unless the international football he played on Tuesday impacts his availability, if so then Jack Taylor will come in.
The wide positions will be filled by either Kayden Jackson or Omari Hutchinson on the right, and Nathan Broadhead will come in from the left. The centre forward could be George Hirst, but Freddie Ladapo could start against his former side. Conor Chaplin will buzz around the centre forward position to find shooting opportunities.
Rotherham v Ipswich Cheat Sheet
Here it is. The Rotherham v Ipswich Cheat Sheet. All the previously mentioned stats can be found on the Cheat Sheet, as well as many more. From referee to team corners to player foul stats, everything you could want to help pick out your bets is included.
The two levels of bet builder below have also been carefully selected from the Cheat Sheet. They have been chosen from a combination of player form, historical averages, and the perceived value of the selection.
For more extensive bet builder info, make sure to head over to our Bet Builder Stats page, where we have Opta-powered statistical breakdowns of major leagues across the UK and Europe, including the Rotherham v Ipswich game.
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ABC’s 3/1 Rotherham v Ipswich bet builder
🏆 Ipswich to win
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Odds: 1.44
Despite the short price it is worth putting Ipswich to win as a part of the Level 1 bet builder.
It is practically impossible to get two teams that are so opposite in the quality of their attacking outputs. The Rotherham defence is also exceptionally poor, so it is difficult to envisage a scenario in which the Tractor Boys don’t end the match with a greater xG than their opponents.
In Conor Chaplin and Nathan Broadhead they have two excellent natural finishers on the pitch to pounce on those chances. Leif Davis is proving himself as a top assist maker as well, all three are likely to start and play the vast majority of minutes.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🛑 Rotherham Goalkeeper to make 4+ saves
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Odds: 1.91
Viktor Johansson made his Sweden debut in midweek and is arguably Rotherham’s best player. Against a side who are top of the league in shots on target, Rotherham will have to hope that Johansson is on form if they are going to get anything from the match.
The Swede averages just short of four saves per match this season, and four or more saves has landed in three of Rotherham’s last five matches.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🚀 Fred Onyedinma to have 1+ shots
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Odds: 1.33
Fred Onyedinma has been playing as a wing back in recent weeks but his shot volume has not taken a hit from supposedly moving further back on the field. Indeed, his performances have been something of a highlight for Rotherham in recent weeks.
The good news for this bet is that no matter what shape Taylor goes for, Onyedinma should be guaranteed a spot, and he should be a shot threat no matter what.
He is averaging 1.52 shots per 90, and one has to go back to the opening day of the season to find the last time that Onyedinma started and didn’t have at least one shot.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
ABC’s 12/1 Rotherham v Ipswich bet builder
🏆 Ipswich (-1 Handicap)
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Odds: 2.30
Ipswich have covered the -1 handicap against Preston and Hull in their last two matches. They also managed it against Stoke earlier in the season. They certainly score enough goals to make this a possibility.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🎯 Conor Chaplin to have 2+ shots on target
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Odds: 1.85
Conor Chaplin has covered this mark on four occasions already this season. Once again, as mentioned, we are expecting Ipswich to have a good number of shots on target and if they do then Chaplin’s intelligent movement and accurate shooting should see him in the action.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🚀 Fred Onyedinma to have 2+ shots
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Odds: 2.80
Onyedinma has actually had two shots in three of his last four games, and six times in total already this season. The odds are obviously against him because of the match-up v Ipswich, but to get almost 2/1 on something that has happened more often than not this season is something that we should be looking to take advantage of.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
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