“This matchup presents a strong case for backing Aston Villa to win comfortably. Southampton’s form have been very poor on their return to the top-flight, with only 5 points earned this season, and a mere 1 point coming from their away fixtures. They’ve struggled defensively on the road, losing by at least two goals in 4 out of 7 away games. Adding to their woes, they’re coming off a brutal 5-1 defeat to Chelsea, which likely leaves them drained both physically and mentally.

On the other hand, Aston Villa, despite a challenging run of fixtures against top-tier sides like Liverpool, Tottenham, and Chelsea, showcased resilience with a decisive 3-1 victory over Brentford. This result could signal a return to the form that saw them off to an excellent start in the opening of the season. Villa have also consistently thrived against lower-tier opposition and tend to get results where they should, with all of their losses this season coming against “big six” teams.

Importantly, Villa’s ability to dismantle weaker sides has been a hallmark of their campaign, and with home advantage, they’re well-positioned to deliver another emphatic result. Given Southampton’s defensive frailties and Villa’s strong track record against struggling teams, a two-goal margin victory seems like a solid value selection.”

“Bruno Guimarães is integral to Newcastle’s midfield, dictating play with his vision and composure. His influence often draws attention from opposition players, making him one of the most fouled players in the league. The Brazilian is fouled 3.11 times per 90 minutes on average and has been fouled 28 times in his last 7 matches – an impressive rate of 4 fouls per game. Remarkably, he’s been fouled at least 3 times in 6 of those 7 matches. Against a physical Brentford side that doesn’t shy away from midfield duels, Guimarães is likely to be a prime target. At 2.20, this is a standout betting option.”

“The issues that Manchester City have had recently are well publicised but there has perhaps been an overreaction. They were as short as a -1.5 handicap to beat Forest at home in midweek and they duly delivered a comfortable 3-0 win. The garden is not suddenly rosy but it was a much better performance and City used their experience of playing regular midweek games to their advantage.

The injury situation has also improved with the return of key playmaker Kevin De Bruyne especially a major boost. He scored and assisted vs Forest and looked a serious menace. Suddenly the likes of Jack Grealish are back fit and Jeremy Doku back in contention.

City should be beating a Palace side who have only won two games all season. The hosts claimed a midweek win 1-0 at Ipswich but this is a much bigger challenge vs a hungry and motivated Manchester City who want to prove a point.

The visitors are certainly not over their blip yet but the odds on offer are far more generous compared to usual and there has been an overreaction to their form.”