Rangers v Celtic
Rangers approach Saturday’s Old Firm match against Celtic seeking to salvage pride from what has been a testing season, while their great rivals make the short trip with the aim of underlining their dominance in the Premiership and taking a step closer to the 100-point mark, with the title having been secured last weekend. There may not be anything tangible riding on this match, but that is irrelevant in what is a firecracker of a fixture.
After losing the recent Scottish Cup semi-final 1-0 to the Hoops, the home side should be particularly focused to earn a first win in nine against their rivals over 90 minutes. They have had a habit of conceding sloppy goals against Celtic this season typified by the manner in which they allowed Jota to score at Hampden.
Indeed, Celtic have scored at least two goals in all four of the league matches this season. Rangers’ defending lately might have tightened up, but it is difficult to trust a team that had conceded two goals or more in four of five Premiership matches prior to the split.
Equally, though, Michael Beale’s side have shown they have the capability to breach Celtic. They have scored in the last three league matches against the Hoops, and though they were shut out in the Scottish Cup on the last day of April, they still managed an xG that was approaching 1.5, suggesting they should have found the net.
Both teams to score is available at 1.57, but with Celtic having a habit of scoring at least twice per game – they have done so on 30 from 33 matches this season – look for over 2.5 goals in this game.
Osters v GAIS
Last season, Osters missed out on promotion to the top-flight in the Allsvenskan/Superettan relegation/promotion playoff, whilst GAIS were only just promoted to the second-tier. This year, though, both sides have a similar level of ambition.
Under the management of Srdjan Tufegdzic, Osters begin this weekend’s round of fixtures sitting at the top of the table. The home team have won four and drawn one of their opening six matches but they have hit a bit of a stumbling block.
They come into this on the back of a 2-2 draw with struggling Orgryte IS in their most recent outing, last weekend. That draw followed on from a 1-0 loss at home to Ostersund a couple of weeks ago. Despite these five dropped points, they remain both the league leaders and top scorers with 14 goals scored in six matches.
Following promotion last season, GAIS have begun the campaign with four victories and a draw in their opening six matches as they seek to replicate last season’s title winners, Brommapojkarna, in earning back-to-back promotions.
The visitors come into this on the back of a return to winning ways with a 2-1 win at home to struggling Trelleborg as they sit level on points with Osters at the top of the table.
These are two strong sides that sandwich Vasteras at the top on goal difference. Both teams have averaged well over a goal per game and it should be an intriguing, as well as entertaining, encounter.
Skeid v Start
Both teams have been involved in several high scoring contests this season and the first place to look is the goals market. Skeid drew 0-0 vs Fredrikstad last week, although that looks to be an exception, with low scoring being a consistent theme in Fredrikstad’s games this season.
That was just the second clean sheet that Skied kept this season and defensively they are not very secure. Skeid have the 3rd worst xGA average of any team in the OBOS Ligaen (1.59) and Start are only marginally better at 1.48. Both defences in this matchup have at times leaked goals but they both certainly concede a lot of chances. The attacking nature of each manager should definitely contribute towards an open contest here.
Start were one of the pre-season favourites to win the OBOS Ligaen but have produced mixed form so far. They beat Kristiansund 4-0 and came from behind to win against Hodd 4-2 last week but in between those fixtures have been some really inconsistent results. The big problem for Start has been conceding goals.
Since they opened the season with two fairly lucky clean sheets, they’ve shipped 9 goals in their last 4 games. It is fortunate that they have a strong attacking unit to lean upon to get them out of trouble.
They suffered a blow in losing striker Jack Lahne to a season ending injury but their two loanee attackers Tom Strannegard and Henrik Skogvold have already combined to produce 10 goals and 2 assists. Right winger Sander Sjorkvist had an excellent match last weekend and supplied a couple of goals.
Meanwhile, at the other end of the field there’s enough firepower to hit the back of the net. Skeid striker Kristoffer Hoven scored a hat trick vs Ranheim and will be a real threat for the hosts.
Over 2.5 goals looks like massive value at 1.60. I would not be surprised to see both teams score multiple goals, and this has all the makings of an end to end type thriller. Both defences are struggling, and the underlying metrics support the case for goals. Start might just edge the game due to their extra quality but taking the goals looks like the best bet.
KFUM Oslo v Kongsvinger
Betting on KFUM matches was a nightmare for me in the early stages of the season. The frustrating thing is I should have stayed patient and kept backing their overs after they opened the season with some low-scoring games. The last two KFUM games have both ended in 2-2 draw and those are the sort of results we are expecting to continue this season.
They have been a consistent team for several years but the managerial change losing Jorgen Isnes to Eliteserien club Strømsgodset appears to have hit them hard. KFUM are bottom of the table and one of just two winless teams in the OBOS Ligaen so far this season. They have however drawn their last three straight games so they do have some points on the board.
They face a Kongsvinger side who also underwent a managerial change during the winter. Vegard Hansen spent nearly 14 years at Mjøndalen and is vastly experienced at this level of football. He has had a mixed start to life at the club with 3 wins and 3 defeats. Kongsvinger do travel here in a confident mood though after winning consecutive games 2-1 vs Sandnes and Jerv respectively.
Both teams have had similar defensive problems and only have two clean sheets between them all season. Offensively, both sides have scored at least one goal in 4 out their 6 fixtures. In terms of raw metrics, nothing massively stands out and each outfit are mid-ranked for xG and xGA.
There is a decent chance of a few goals being scored here and over 2.5 could be considered. However, both teams to score at 1.50 looks a more than acceptable price. With KFUM Oslo yet to keep a clean sheet and Kongsvinger also leaking a few goals then this bet makes a lot of sense and is slightly safer in case of 1-1 draw.
Manchester United v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolves make the trip to Manchester on Saturday afternoon and they’ll face a hungry United side in need of three points. United have lost their previous two matches as they were beaten by both Brighton and West Ham on the road. However, it’s their fantastic home form that has caught the eye this season, with this being the main factor in making this a 5 star pick.
In opposition are Wolves who beat Aston Villa at Molineux last weekend by a goal to nil. They’ve picked up some decent results recently but it’s their dismal away form that’s a major issue. It’s now four defeats in their last five in away matches and they’ll be facing a United side desperate to get the win.
Although United have not scored in the last two games, I see this being a completely different game now back on home soil. The Red Devils have had one of their best home campaigns in a number of years. They’re unbeaten since August of last year at Old Trafford, a pretty impressive statistic. 12 wins have been accumulated in the last 15 at home, to go alongside five clean sheets in their last five games.
Marcus Rashford has been the main man in front of goal this season and he has 15 goals to his name in the Premier League. This game will be an ideal opportunity for the United attacker to get on the scoresheet again. He’s been in imperious form since the World Cup and is the most potent of the home side’s attackers. Wolves have shipped multiple goals in 4 of their last 5 away PL matches, so there’s a high possibility he can find the back of the net here.
Wolves have now confirmed their status in the Premier League having reached a total of 40 points. The Midlands outfit sit in 13th place and could now be considered to be ‘on the beach’. Lopetegui has the opportunity to rotate the squad in the next few games and if so, this may well fall into United’s hands.
Goals have been the issue all year long for Wolves and they’re the lowest scoring team in the PL, scoring just 30 times. This is a major problem when facing a team who are extremely solid in defence playing at home. I can’t see Wolves laying a glove on United, so back a United win with confidence here as they look to secure their top four finish.
Falkirk v Airdrieonians
Goals are surely guaranteed in Saturday’s encounter between Falkirk and Airdrie, which is a fixture that has produced fireworks on five occasions already this season. The hosts have everything to do as they chase a 6-2 first-leg deficit, which was a thoroughly embarrassing defeat given they were 5-0 down at half-time.
In front of what will likely be a large home support, they are likely to be aggressive from the outset with their season on the line. Falkirk will have to take chances and that is likely to benefit Airdrie’s attackers, who were the most prolific in the regular season of League One, netting 82 goals. The Diamonds are in devastating offensive form, having scored at least three goals in five of their last 10 fixtures.
Defensively, though, Airdrie are not so smart and have a tendency to struggle if the momentum of a match switches away from them. Additionally, first-choice goalkeeper Josh Rae is suspended – one of the best in his position in the league. These factors will give Falkirk hope.
Meanwhile, the head-to-head record between these teams strongly suggests plenty of goalmouth action. Four of the five games they have played this season have seen at least four goals – which can be backed at 2.88 – while both teams have netted in each of the last four games.
With Falkirk needing to chase the game and Airdrie so capable on the counterattack, the ingredients are there for another spectacular encounter.
HJK v Inter Turku
After losing their first game the previous round, HJK squandered 0-2 and 2-3 leads to settle for a point against a hugely spirited KTP in midweek. All three goals (Stjopin, Peltola and Moller) were their respective first strikes for the club, but none would be guaranteed starters in a full strength side.
Lucas Lingman and Anthony Olusanya came off the bench after injuries, but there are several more to return. Experienced defender Joona Toivio will be back after suspension. Top scorer Bojan Radulovic is likely to miss this game too after an MRI scan in the week, with his understudies needing to step up.
Inter wouldn’t expect to be second bottom at this point, but they’ve only played three times while HJK have played seven already. Inter put up a good fight away to SJK last weekend, but after equalising in second half injury time, there was still time to lose it later.
Jarkko Wiss has a lot of work too and has expressed his frustration at having such a lack of competitive playing time, he’ll have lots to catch up on. Tommi Jyry was the scorer, but the other attackers drew a blank and the pressure remains on. They’ll need to be all guns blazing at HJK but based on recent form, the forwards will need to improve.
This is likely to be a return to form for the champions, with this being another home game against a struggling side.
SJK v Ilves
The late winner for SJK against Inter was a huge relief, the side played well but left it late after coasting at 1-0. Jaime Moreno scored again and is looking increasingly comfortable, he is at his most dangerous in a crowded penalty area.
The 94th minute clincher came from Diego Rojas, who will miss this game as a result of suspension after he received a second yellow card for taking his shirt off and kissing family members in the crowd in the aftermath of his winning goal.
SJK have only conceded twice this season and are the only unbeaten side remaining. A title push seemed like a dream at the start of the season, but with inconsistent rivals, thoughts are already looking at qualifying for Europe as the bare minimum.
Ilves were leading 1-0 against AC Oulu last Friday, but found themselves on the wrong end of another 94th minute winner. Furthermore, talismanic captain Petteri Pennanen was sent off for a rash challenge and will miss this game through suspension. Bermudan international striker Djair Parfitt-Williams got his first league goal of the year and likely to start here but will have his work cut out against the tight SJK back three.
Missing their skipper leaves a giant hole in midfield and a strong set piece specialist gone. New signing Sabit Ngor has yet to ignite up ground and has been withdrawn in his first two league matches, but Seydine N’Diaye is dynamic (and a yellow card waiting to happen, with three in four games so far – something to consider if you are able to bet on cards in Finland).
A strong Ilves would give SJK a good game but this is the biggest example of a one-man team in the division and that man will not be playing thanks to suspension, whilst SJK are the form side in the Veikkausliiga.
Osasuna v Almeria
After losing the Copa del Rey final 2-1 to Real Madrid last Saturday, Osasuna will look to bounce back one week later when they host Almería. Despite that heartbreak, the connection between the fans and players during that final weekend was special and the club expect this game to be close to a sell-out.
The Osasuna players have plenty of motivation to go out and take the three points in this first game since the cup final, as they are just three points off a Conference League spot and a first return to Europe in a decade and a half. Coach Jagoba Arrasate has reportedly been working the squad hard in training this week, so it’s clear that there is a new carrot on a new stick for Osasuna to chase.
This is almost the perfect fixture for Osasuna to launch a new mission, as Almería are the second-worst away side in the division, with just seven points from 16 away matches. The Andalusian outfit did secure their only away win of the season as recently as April, winning 2-1 at relegation zone side Getafe, but going to a boisterous El Sadar will be a different task altogether.
Osasuna even won 1-0 at Almería earlier in the season, and they’ll hope home advantage and the new challenge of trying to qualify for Europe can inspire them to another.
Molde v Stromgodset
After a difficult start to the season, it now looks like Molde are trustworthy again. Their last two results have been convincing victories 3-0 vs Aalesund and 4-0 vs Ham Kam. The defending champions are slowly climbing up the table and now have a run of favourable fixtures which they need to take advantage of.
The underlying metrics for Erling Moe’s men have been excellent. Statistically, Molde have the best defence in the Eliteserien with an average xGA per match of just 0.85. At the other end of the field, they pack plenty of firepower with an xG of 1.74.
A few injuries and suspensions have hindered them so far this year but veteran technician Magnus Wolff Eikrem proved last weekend he still has the quality in this league with a goal and an assist. This squad has a lot of depth and is loaded with quality and class. Veton Berisha and Ola Brynhildsen remain doubtful with injury.
Strømsgodset travel here with just four points after five games. They are second bottom of the table and it’s not been a great start for new manager Jorgen Isnes. They probably should have won last week but conceded a late goal vs Viking and had to settle for a 1-1 draw.
Isnes has incorporated a new 3-4-3 tactical system on the team, and everyone knew it would take some time for the players to get used to it. An overall xGA average of 1.56 per game is rather worrying though, especially when they’ve only faced one really strong offensive team (Lillestrøm). This is going to be a much more difficult test because Molde have a lot of players who can rip apart any defence.
Molde should win the game comfortably but odds of 1.22 don’t really appeal. Over 2.5 goals are priced at 1.36 and that looks a safer pick. Molde alone are capable of covering this goal line but let’s not forget they lost a recent home game 2-3 here vs Stabaek.
Godset are surely aware they are going to have to score at least one goal to get anything, so this is likely to be a fairly open game of football. For those wanting a better price then you could take Molde to win and over 2.5 goals at 1.57, but in this instance just backing the straightforward over 2.5 goals is my recommendation.
Stabaek v Aalesund
Rock bottom Aalesund travel here looking for their first win of the season. It has been a turbulent start for AFK who have just one point after six games. At least they managed to end their losing run by drawing 0-0 vs Haugesund last week. Incredibly, they’ve yet to score a single goal this season!
Aalesund sacked manager Lars Arne Nilsen, partly due to poor results but also because of the boring negative style his football generates. His imprint on the team remains substantial though and they have yet to name a replacement. Interim manager Marius Bøe took charge of the Haugesund game, and it has been confirmed he will be on the sidelines again here.
Aalesund have an xG average of 0.76 per game which is the second lowest of any team. They are just offering very little in the final third.
Stabaek will understand that one goal may be all that is required to collect all 3 points. It’s been a solid start to the season for the newly promoted team and they are sitting comfortably in midtable after five games played. Their recruitment drive in the winter was impressive and the addition of goalkeeper Isak Pettersson especially looks like a brilliant signing.
Stabaek have the second worst average xGA in the league (1.66) but let’s not forget they have faced teams such as Molde and Glimt already who are the two best sides in Norway right now. The grass pitch here at the Nadderud Stadion does make it difficult for good technical football to be played but Stabaek can use that to their advantage. It feels like they have a decent amount of momentum right now and there is a good feel around the club.
Aalesund are definitely more of a mess and desperately need to appoint a new permanent manager soon who can breathe some life and inspiration into the squad. Stabaek can add to their misery here and odds of 1.80 for a home win look more than acceptable.
Due to Aalesund’s shocking lack of goals then a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline is very much in play. This looks like the best value bet for this Eliteserien round.
IFK Mariehamn v Haka
Mariehamn’s poor start to the season went from bad to worse last week, conceding within a minute against VPS and going on to lose 2-1 against a bottom half rival. A late penalty from Jamie Hopcutt kept it interesting, but he was unable to convert, hitting the crossbar.
The constant changes of personnel every winter makes the team even more disjointed. Abdullfattah Asiri continues to attract fans on social media but only got seven minutes at the end while still building up fitness. The season-ending injury to Patrik Raitanen leaves a gaping hole in the centre of defence and they can’t continue conceding at a rate of two per match and still hope to survive.
Not many people were expecting a Haka victory on Tuesday evening away to Honka, but a very clinical 0-2 win turned heads, while substitute Henri Malundama did well to carry on after Roman Eremenko was dismissed for nearly taking his legs off with a horrendous challenge.
Logan Rogerson opened his account from close range before Juan Lescano’s form since returning from injury continued with a fine headed goal. If Lescano can get a decent run of games, he might be able to return the side to the top half.
Teemu Tainio also needs to get his side as solid at the back as they were last year, and that top half finish could well be on the cards. Ryan Mahuta’s set pieces look dangerous and has proved a shrewd signing.
It is hard to see Mariehamn keep a clean sheet in this fixture and the gap at the bottom could quickly become a chasm if they cannot improve significantly, and soon.
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