Napoli v Verona
We’re now in the midst of the closest thing to a wobble that Napoli have had all season long. They were beaten in midweek by AC Milan in the Champions League which is the second time in 10 days they have been beaten by the Rossoneri.
The Serie A fixture in between those matches saw Luciano Spalletti’s side win 2-1 away at Lecce but it was another poor performance. They were fortunate to retake the lead with a comical own goal at the Stadio Via del Mare.
Despite that, every time they have lost a game this season, they have followed it up with a victory. Seeing as they are at home to one of the teams in the relegation zone, they should surely be continuing that trend in this match.
Another factor is that Kim Min-Jae and Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa are both now suspended for the second leg against Milan in the Champions League. That means they will presumably play the whole game here and will not be conserving energy as they have a week off afterwards.
Napoli would much rather they just weren’t suspended at all but it’s nonetheless a factor in this Verona game. The away team are four points from safety in Serie A and if anyone from the bottom three does escape, it will be them. Any points that help them do that probably won’t come away at Napoli.
Oostende v OH Leuven
As if the sporting concerns were not big enough for Oostende, some of the players are threatening to boycott training sessions if Dominik Thalhammer stays on as coach.
KV Oostende stand with one and a half feet in second division and it is not only among the fans that dissatisfaction is high. Some of the squad say they can no longer agree with, as one insider calls it, “the Austrian coach’s naive pressing game”.
They expressed their displeasure during training on Wednesday. A handful of players even threatened to go on strike if Thalhammer were to stay on and lead Thursday and Friday’s training sessions. More so, they already approached Kurt Bataille, successful as U21 coach, to take over the remaining two matches. Meanwhile, the ownership are burying their heads in the sand, so Thalhammer remains in his post.
The supporters also showed their displeasure to the board. The stakes could not be higher, as anything other than maximum points against OHL will all but ensure their relegation.
OHL still have a slight chance of making the playoffs. If they win the last two games and if both Charleroi and Anderlecht can manage no more than a single point each, they will capture eighth place at the last minute. Of these three teams, they do have the easiest fixtures.
Last week they convincingly beat Mechelen 4-0, after a brilliant performance by strikers Opoku and Maertens. Marc Brys will presumably start with the same eleven against Oostende.
Both internally and externally, nobody seems to believe in Ostend’s chances anymore. In terms of competition, the club has only managed one victory in 2023 (3-0 against Club Brugge). Relegation awaits the coastal team. OHL, on the other hand, can play with little pressure and are certainly the better team.
Both teams gain nothing from a draw, so it will be an attractive match. We expect OHL to exploit the spaces that Ostend will undoubtedly give away in this contest. They are available to win at 2.63 if you would like to push the boat out, but under the circumstances, Double Chance looks incredibly good value, and the extra security is too good to pass up.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach
Qualifying for European football is key if Eintracht Frankfurt are to keep their best players beyond the summer but after a 3-1 defeat against Bayer Leverkusen last weekend SGE dropped down into seventh, behind B04 and out of the European places but remain just two points behind. It’s important they beat a resurgent Borussia Monchengladbach side on Saturday evening.
Eintracht Frankfurt did win the reverse fixture 3-1 but haven’t won any of their last six in the Bundesliga. Oliver Glasner’s side have though scored in five of their last six league games but have been underperforming in front of goal with an xG of 11 across their last six. Jesper Lindstrom has missed Eintracht’s last four league games and that’s perhaps a factor for their conversion rate, but SGE are still creating plenty with Daichi Kamada, Mario Gotze and Randal Kolo Muani.
Kolo Muani has made a case for Player of the Season with 24 goal contributions (12 goals, 12 assists) across 26 Bundesliga games this season, but the Frenchman has scored just two goals in his last six league games. Eintracht’s attacking trio against Gladbach’s back four makes for an exciting encounter.
Borussia Monchengladbach have won eight of their 14 home games this season but it’s their away form that lets them down – only Bochum and Hertha Berlin have collected fewer points away from home than Die Fohlen this season. It’s difficult to see how Borussia can come away with three points, but they can certainly cause Eintracht Frankfurt significant problems.
Like Eintracht Frankfurt, Borussia Monchengladbach are underperforming in their xG metric. They’ve scored 13 goals away from home this season from an xG of 15 in their 14 away games. Roland Virkus has confirmed that Marcus Thuram will not be extending his contract with the club beyond the summer but the Frenchman is still Gladbach’s key player in the attacking third with 13 goals this season.
Thuram also has two in his last three games and if Borussia Monchengladbach are to get anything from this game, they won’t have a better chance against a faltering Eintracht side who are without Philipp Max which should give Thuram, Jonas Hofmann and Co. the luxury down SGE’s left.
When these two teams are involved, goals tend to be also. Only once in their last six Bundesliga meetings has one team failed to score, with over 2.5 goals scored in five of their last six games. Both teams are creating but failing to convert, but that makes for a chaotic game and Both Teams to Score represents excellent value this weekend.
Real Betis v Espanyol
Real Betis play at home for the second weekend in a row, but they’ll hope that this game goes a lot better than the last one. By the hour mark of last weekend’s match against Cádiz, Betis found themselves two goals and two men down after a series of mishaps, and they ultimately lost it 2-0. Given the two early red cards, that was something of a bizarre game and Real Betis are writing that defeat off as just one very bad day at the office.
This Saturday, they have the perfect opportunity to get back to winning ways because they’re hosting second-bottom Espanyol, who have lost their past five matches. That includes last weekend’s home loss to Athletic Club in what was the debut of new coach Luis García Fernández, a former player who is very inexperienced as a coach. It was not an impressive debut and Espanyol didn’t look any better than in previous weeks, so Betis’ veteran coach Manuel Pellegrini will expect to exploit their weaknesses.
And, Espanyol have a particular weakness at the full-back position this weekend. Between injuries and suspensions, they’re missing their top two left-backs and their top two right-backs, so Betis will look to take advantage down the wings.
Although Real Betis also have some absences of their own, such as those of Sergio Canales and Nabil Fekir, they should have enough to overcome this poor Espanyol side in front of their home crowd, assuming they can keep all 11 of their players on the pitch this time.
Benfica v Chaves
Prior to April 7, Benfica had lost just once all season – a 3-0 loss to Braga on December 30. Since then, they’ve fallen to a 2-1 defeat vs. Porto and a 2-0 defeat vs. Inter – both coming at home – and they will be looking to bounce back with a trip to Chaves before taking off for Italy.
Chaves have enjoyed an impressive return to the top-flight, picking up a 2-0 victory at Sporting and a 1-0 win at Braga in the first few weeks of the campaign, but since then, their record against the top sides in Portugal has followed a consistent pattern.
Benfica obliterated them 5-0, Sporting beat them 3-2 whilst Porto won 3-1, following up a 2-0 win in the Taça da Liga and a 3-0 win in the league. After opening March with a defeat to Porto, Vítor Campelos’ side secured 2-0 victories against Portimonense and Estoril before losing 2-1 to Braga at home and taking a 0-0 draw against Gil Vicente on Monday.
I’m expecting another high-scoring fixture for Chaves as they host a Benfica side that is desperate for a result after receiving two major wake-up calls against Porto and Inter. They sit seven points clear of Porto and will be eager to retain their advantage with a victory. I’m expecting Roger Schmidt to take the safety brakes off and give David Neres a much-needed start following his positive showing off the bench against Inter with Fredrik Aursnes dropping into midfield alongside Chiquinho or Florentino Luís.
Neres should provide a boost of pace, dribbling, close control and a genuine winger profile that João Mário and Aursnes simply do not provide. João Mário and Gonçalo Ramos sit as the joint-top scorer in the Primeira with 17 goals, and I’m expecting them to start alongside Rafa Silva in attack, with Nicolás Otamendi also returning to the side after being suspended midweek and providing leadership and World Cup-winning quality at the back.
Benfica should have enough firepower to get past Chaves, having won 12 of their last 13 matches and 11 with a two-goal margin before facing off against Porto, and they should be jolted into a major response following a dismal week and a livened performance in attack.
They have beaten Chaves 4-0 and 5-0 in their last two matches, whilst four of their last five meetings have featured over 2.5 goals. I’m expecting a high-scoring win for Benfica in Chaves.
Fenerbahce v Ankaragucu
Fenerbahce were able to come back to win 2-1 in the match against Karagumruk after falling behind. Although this win brought a serious morale boost, the atmosphere in the club is not exactly positive. For Ankaragucu, on the other hand, things are much better, playing good football on the counter-attack with their new coach.
Key players left-back Ferdi Kadioglu and strikers Joshua King and Michy Batshuayi are still out injured for Fenerbahce. The situation of goalkeeper Altay Bayindir is also questionable, he may or may not feature here. Ankaragucu, on the other hand, have a fully fit squad. Together with new coach Tolunay Kafkas, they won the last two games and they have nothing to lose heading into this game.
It is a very difficult match for Fenerbahçe. They have many injuries and title rivals Galatasaray won on Friday. If they are unable to score a goal early, a protest has been prepared, so the usual home advantage goes out of the window. Fenerbahce would not have played this match in their own stadium if they had a choice.
It’s a good opportunity for Ankaragucu and the visitors are likely to score against the troubled, vulnerable Fenerbahce defence. The home side have conceded in 10 of their last 11 league games. The same can be said for the Ankaragucu defence, who have kept only two clean sheets in their last 10 Super Lig games.
Westerlo v Club Brugge
With two games to go, Club Brugge no longer have their fate in their own hands. If the reigning champion still wants to claim a spot in the top four, only six points out of six will be enough; and even then they will have to rely on Gent dropping points.
Since interim coach De Mil took over, Brugge took 9 out of 12 and scored 7 goals in 4 games, a massive improvement over Scott Parker’s brief tenure. Moreover, star player Noa Lang feels important again and is carrying the attack.
But opponent Westerlo have been a revelation this season in Belgium, so it will be far from an easy game. Westerlo are currently in 7th place and still have a very slim chance of taking part in those Champions Play-Offs, having to hope that both Gent and Club Brugge lose both of their final games.
Jonas De Roeck’s troops have earned 7 points out of 15 from their last 5 games, in which they lost at Standard (2-0), won against Kortrijk (3-1) and Oostende (1-2), lost again to Charleroi (2-3) and then drew at Anderlecht last weekend. In their own Kuipje, this team is always capable of something more, so it promises to be a balanced match. Both teams gain little from a draw, so we expect both to try and play on the front foot.
Club Brugge have the better squad on paper, but are missing an important midfielder with Nielsen this match. Brugge lost to Westerlo earlier this season (0-2) and managed to win only 1 of their last 5 away games.
For Westerlo, the season is basically already a success, while the visitors are trying to save their season. It is not obvious to pinpoint a winner in this clash, but goals seem likely. Moreover, both teams have only failed to score in five league games between them so far.
Cadiz v Real Madrid
For Cádiz, this Saturday’s visit of Real Madrid is arguably the biggest home fixture of their season. For Real Madrid, it’s the least important game of their three across a seven-day span, coming in between the two legs of their Champions League quarter-final against Chelsea.
For that reason, Real Madrid are expected to heavily rotate for this league game, as they also did in last weekend’s 3-2 loss to Villarreal. For example, Ancelotti is expected to make at least three changes to his back line and we already saw against Villarreal just how much that makeshift back four struggled, more than anything because that group of backups hadn’t played much together and lacked chemistry.
There will be opportunities there if Cádiz attack and they are expected to do so, as the Andalusian side have been much more adventurous since the January transfer window, when they reinforced their front line. Since then, they’ve been averaging 1.1 goals scored per game, up from the 0.66 from the first half of the season.
At the other end, Cádiz still concede goals and they’ll be without their starting goalkeeper Jeremías Ledesma – who makes the second-most saves per 90 minutes in LaLiga, with 4.0 – as he continues to serve a suspension. They’re also down to their third-choice right-back, which is far from ideal when Vinícius is on the opposite side.
Given that both Vinícius and Karim Benzema are expected to have significant minutes in this game, since Ancelotti likes to keep them sharp, Real Madrid should score too and their forwards will relish the chance to go up against backup goalkeeper David Gil and third-choice right-back Raúl Parra. Given all of this, goals should be expected at both ends.
PSG v Lens
Saturday’s clash between PSG and Lens is likely to go some way to deciding the destination of the Ligue 1 title, but given the track record of these two clubs, it is liable to be a tight and competitive affair.
PSG’s disappointing form needs little introduction, with eight defeats already in 2023, including a 3-1 reverse against Lens away from home on New Year’s Day. As PSG’s form has collapsed, though, so too have the number of goals in their games. None of their last three Ligue 1 matches have seen more than 2.5 goals with the home team failing to score in any of these fixtures.
Furthermore, the home team have injury issues to consider. Neymar is missing for this game while Kylian Mbappe has not trained fully because of a hip injury. He certainly appeared diminished last weekend against Nice and it will be difficult for PSG to break Lens down if he is not at 100%.
Meanwhile, Lens find themselves in a competitive position due to their pragmatism. Away from home in the league this season, their 15 matches have produced only 30 goals in total. They have not conceded in either of their last two away games, one of which was a 1-0 win over Rennes, a team in the European vicinity.
Although the last meeting between these sides produced four goals, only one of the previous quartet of fixtures has produced more than 2.5 strikes. With the importance of this encounter to both teams, expect to be tactical and not particularly open. Under 3.5 goals looks great value in this match while under 2.5 at 2.45 is also worth consideration.
Always Ready v Bolivar
This is an intriguing tie between two of the league’s three strongest sides.
Bolivar come into the game having slipped up in Trinidad to Libertad Gran Mamore on Wednesday, but before that they had four wins on the trot, including an impressive 3-1 win against Brazilian side Palmeiras in the Copa Libertadores. In Always’ case, although they have picked up two wins and a draw in the last five games, they have lost two of their last three home games.
In the head-to-head Bolivar’s superiority is notorious, leading 24-4 and more importantly they have won the last three. These sides have played five times in El Alto (previously these two shared a ground in La Paz) since 2019 with Bolivar leading the series 2-1.
While Always Ready are quite capable of giving anyone a run for their money and more so at home, I feel Bolivar are too strong and have evolved this season with the new signings. Picking a definite winner here is tough, but I am confident there will be goals. The goal average between these two sides is 3.15 over their last 40 games.
Porto v Santa Clara
After crashing out of the UEFA Champions League to Inter and drawing 0-0 to Braga, Porto have returned from the international break with a 1-0 victory against Portimonense and a 2-1 win at Benfica, moving within seven points of the league leaders after an emotional victory that would see Porto concede the opener within 10 minutes only to equalize at the interval and go ahead in the 54th minute via Mehdi Taremi.
Porto have won 10 of their last 12 league matches and will be looking to pick up their 21st league win of the season against Santa Clara, before facing off against Paços de Ferreira and taking on Famalicão in the two-legged Taça de Portugal semifinals.
Whilst they are the only one of ‘Os Três Grandes’ who find themselves out of Europe at the moment, Porto can claim a third domestic trophy of the season by winning the Taça de Portugal, and giving Benfica their first home defeat of the campaign will have undoubtedly provided them with a much-needed shot of confidence as they look to keep distance with Roger Schmidt’s side and remain at least two points clear of Braga with a win.
At the moment, fighting Braga for second place and automatic Champions League group stage qualification is a much bigger priority for them than challenging for the league title, but that could change if Benfica slip up over the next few weeks. Either way, the Clássico win will have certainly boosted their spirits as they enter the home stretch of the campaign, and they’ll be looking to carry that momentum en route towards a win against a relegation battler.
Santa Clara sit bottom of the league with 15 points, and they have not only picked up the fewest wins (3) in Portugal and a goal differential of -25, but they have more defeats (18) than goals scored (17). The Azoreans have not scored since falling to a 3-1 home defeat to Vitória, they have lost eight in a row and have kept just one clean sheet in 2023, and barring a major turnaround in form, they look set to end a five-year spell in the top-flight.
The departures of Hidemasa Morita to Sporting and Lincoln to Fenerbahçe have deprived them of two key players whilst the likes of Kyosuke Tagawa and Bruno Almeida have been unable to provide a consistent source of goals. I’m expecting Porto’s attack to pierce Santa Clara’s leaky backline and put pressure on a team that is reeling under Danildo Accioly, who took charge as the club’s third manager of the season on February 26 but has failed to avoid defeat thus far.
I’m expecting Porto to add further misery to the island side with a high-scoring victory at the Dragão. Porto have won 11 of their last 12 fixtures against Santa Clara, and with Mehdi Taremi back on the score sheet and Otávio and Wenderson Galeno chipping in, Porto should have enough attacking firepower to demolish the Azorean side.
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