Sonderjyske v Viborg

It’s the final day of the season in the Danish Superliga and in the relegation group and it’s the top team vs the bottom. Sonderjyske (SON) are unfortunately already down, they have put up a big fight in their final few weeks. But unfortunately, their form through the start of the season doomed them before they even had a chance to fight. However, they went from being the worst team in the league to one of the worst teams to play.

For example, SON have only lost 3 of their last 12 league games. In truth there are a lot of draws within that run (Seven) but earlier in the season they were all games that they would have lost. They have turned a corner SON albeit far too late.

This is shown again when you realise that SON have only won two games in the league since September 19^th, so despite any turnaround they simply do not know how to win games. However, this may be down to the fact that SON are very unreliable in front of goal. In their last meeting SON had 13 shots and 6 on target but only scored in the 91^st minute, eventually losing the game against Viborg (VIB) 2-1.

This is a key reason for backing VIB in this match. The side at the top of the relegation group are a very hard team to beat at the moment, or at least for the other sides in the group, with only 1 loss in their last eleven games. 

Such is the weird nature of the Danish system, that the team who comes top of the relegation group actually gets a qualification place in the Conference League playoffs and VIB have their fate of a Conference League qualifying in their hands if they win. Odense are 3 points behind but both teams are level on goal difference, so Viborg will be looking to not only win but also score goals to solidify that place.

Both teams have shown they are hard to beat recently but the deciding factor will be that SON do not know how to find the net. They have an expected goals tally of 34.5 this season but they have only scored 28 goals. They are missing easy chances while VIB have scored in 11 of their last 12 games. I trust VIB to find the net, I do not trust SON.

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Copenhagen v Aalborg

Things may look finished towards the top of the Superliga with the title essentially wrapped up, but stranger things have happened. Even if Copenhagen (FCK) lose and 2^nd place Midtjlland win, they would need to turnover a goal difference of nine… So, the likelihood of a change at the top is slim. I think FCK will go basically not wanting to lose but as they have shown recently they are susceptible to concede and if that happens they will have to come out and score. Every goal that they concede gives Midtjlland even a slither of hope.

However, unfortunately for Midtjlland, Aalborg (ABK) have not won in any of their last 6 games, but they have scored at least 1 in each of their last 5. They actively make games more interesting with their attacking style of play, which hasn’t worked out recently but does result in high score lines. This combination on the final day of the season could lead to one exciting match, especially as FCK do their best not to concede at all.

ABK cannot catch Silkeborg who occupy the Europa League place but they could still drop out of Europe all together, they have to win to maintain their spot in the Europa Conference League, but with Brondby level on points and Randers only 2 points behind, they are very much in a position where they could be caught.

The match could be a tense affair for both teams with FCK trying not to lose but ABK desperate to win. It’s this combination along with the players knowing it is the final day which I believe will lead to both teams getting a goal in this match.

I don’t expect ABK to score many with the defensive acumen of FCK but I do think they will get at least 1. FCK have only conceded 19 goals all season, so to assume that they are going to let in any more than 1 would be wishful thinking, but with the stakes in place for both sides, gaps will show, and goals are going to be scored.

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18+ please gamble responsibly.

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