Tallinna Kalev v Levadia

This round of Meistriliiga games is the first round where the teams can play on grass instead of artificial due to the long winter in Estonia, a welcome relief to all teams involved.

Goals can always be guaranteed when Kalev is playing. In the 11 games played, 9 that involve Kalev has O2.5 goals. The 2 games that didn’t have O2.5 are the games that Kalev picked up points in. A 1-1 draw, and a 1-0 win.

Last time out against reigning champions Levadia, Kalev lost 5-1 and all signs point to a similar result this time round, Kalev are a very inexperienced and very young team; especially in the final third, this is something Levadia will look to take advantage of. Levadia have already had 15 different goal scorers, so they are not reliant on one area of the pitch for goals. As well as keeping a league high 8 clean sheets in just 11 games, Levadia are consistently solid at the back. 

Finding value in this game is tough as Levadia are the clear favourites. With an average of over 4 goals a game when these two have faced off over the last 20 meetings,  the best value bet for this game will be the overs in the goal market.Kalev have conceded a whopping 40 goals so far this season in just 11 games, and coming against one of the scariest attacks in the league in Levadia who have such players like, Beglarisvili, Kirss and Lillu. This one has the potential to offer a lot of goals

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TJK Legion v Narva Trans

Both sides come into this game not in the best of form. Legion have collected 4 points from a possible 15 in their last 5 games. Winning 1 and drawing 1, albeit against the teams at the bottom of the table, Parnu and Kalev respectively.

On the other hand, Narva have had a miserable time of late, losing all of their last 5 league games and only scored once in those outings, whilst not really showing any fight on the pitch. 

Narva were due to be playing a cup semi final during the midweek but the game was called off due to Covid in the opposition camp, the added rest and preparation could favour Narva. 

These 2 teams last faced off on the opening day of the Premium Liiga campaign with Narva winning 2-0, goals coming from Dedechko and Demidov, although it wasn’t plain sailing for them despite Legion playing with 10 men for 55 minutes of the match. 

The last 5 results between the 2 sides have ended with 3 Narva wins and 2 draws, with Legion failing to score in either of those matches. 

With no out and out goal scorer for either team, goals could be a hard thing to come by in this game. 22 goals scored combined between the 2 sides could lead to a frustrating game. Narva have the better players by far, individually, as a team they’re yet to really get going under the new head coach Eremenko, but they should have enough about them to see off the young, inexperienced Legion players. The best bet for this game would be a Narva, with Narva winning 3 of the last 5 games between the sides by more than 1 goal

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Nomme JK Kalju v Tammeka

A match that should be interesting for the neutral fan. Tammeka manager Miguel Santos was just recently given a warning for publicly criticising the leagues referring following his sides 3-2 defeat to Flora Tallinn last week. Santos claimed that the “big 4” get all the decisions when playing against the smaller teams and that the referees help them to win the games. Kalju fall under one of the “big 4”

Kalju have recently found some winning form again after dropping points against Levadia and this weeks opponents Tammeka. Winning 3 games in a row and keeping clean sheets in each of the games. Players like Kaspar Paur and Alex Tamm will be looking to add to their 5 and 6 goals respectively this season against Tartu, although it won’t be an easy game.

Tammeka havent won in 4 games, but 3 of those games were against the so called big 4 of the league, each game they were unlucky to not come out with more. A narrow 3-2 defeat against Flora Tallinn, a 1-0 defeat to reigning champions Levadia Tallinn and a 1-1 draw against Kalju. Despite last season’s disastrous campaign, Tammeka have played some decent football this year and could give Kalju a scare. 

The bet to keep an eye on for this game will be a Kalju -1 handicap, with Kildjarv still in goal to replace the injured captain Pecther, Kalju’s goal threat could run riot. Although the best bet would be BTTS. 3 out of the last 5 league meetings between these two has ended with both teams on the score sheet. You would expect Kalju to score 1 or 2 and with Tammeka scoring in 64% of their games this season, BTTS is where the value lies.

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Flora Tallinn v Paide Linnameeskond

Flora and Paide face off just 3 days after playing each other in the Estonian Cup Semi Final, where both sides went full strength. The game lacked any real intensity and the game finished 0-0 and Paide winning 5-4 on penalties. In a fixture that usually results in Flora coming out on top, these affairs have been much closer in recent games.

Paide are currently the league’s top goal scorers heading into match week 12 with 33 goals, although they are struggling to keep clean sheets, with just 3 all season split between 3 different goalkeepers.  Paide will be hoping to have former Liverpool defender Ragnar Klavan fit and ready for this important game as Paide are already 5 points behind Kalju who currently sit in 3^rd place. 

Flora on the other hand have played 11 and won 11, which is perhaps a shock to some as Flora lost 3 very key players in the offseason. 

Solid at the back, consistent in midfield and a threat up front, it’s hard to currently find a weakness with Flora, perhaps that weakness is in goal with 4 goals conceded in 2 games against teams Flora would expect clean sheets against in Tammeka and Kalev.

The last time these teams faced off in the league, Flora won 1-2 with a 91^st minute winner, expect the goals to go in much earlier in this fixture

Despite the lack of goals in the cup game, the bet for this game is O2.5 goals. Both are very attacking teams with Deabeas of Paide and Vassiljev of Flora topping the scoring charts with 7 each, both sides are going to fancy this one and not replicate the result from Thursday.

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