Seattle Sounders v Sporting Kansas City

The Saturday opener in the MLS sees two of the Western Conference stalwarts going at it at Lumen Field as the Seattle Sounders host the US Open Cup semi-finalists Sporting Kansas City in what should be an appealing contest.

After a slow start to their MLS campaign, while they were focusing on their Champions League exploits, Seattle Sounders have now made their way into the top seven in the Western Conference and will be looking to push on further.

Sporting Kansas City have struggled over the first half of the campaign but there were signs last weekend that they were coming to the boil when they won away to Nashville SC and then they walloped Union Omaha in the cup on Wednesday evening.

That win in Nashville last week came as a surprise because prior to it SKC had only picked up two points from eight matches on their travels. Nashville are having issues in front of goal at present though and that is not the case with Seattle.

The Sounders would have been disappointed to let a lead slip against Los Angeles FC last week but to be fair they were in action in the midweek prior to that. They will be much fresher here and instead it is their visitors who might be carrying some heavy legs after their cup outing on Wednesday.

I think Seattle are the real deal and with their front four as good as you get in the league and in Stefan Frei they probably have the best keeper in the competition so they have both ends covered and they can beat a Kansas City who still don’t convince me on their travels.

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DC United v Nashville SC

Both Nashville SC and D.C. United are teams that feel a little more comfortable in how they play when opponents take the attacking initiative.

And that’s a dynamic that should favor the visitors in the nation’s capital, at least relative to how the odds shake out. Nashville’s 10 away matches are the most played by any MLS side, because their schedule was backloaded in order to play all 17 home matches at a new stadium opened on May 1. On their travels, the Coyotes have won as many as they’ve lost (four each), and their expected goals totals for and against are a virtual wash.

That tracks with a side that is most comfortable in the counterattack under manager Gary Smith. Their roster probably needs one more creative piece to become a true MLS Cup contender, even if Hany Mukhtar had an MVP-caliber 2021 season.

Speaking of 2021, D.C. United have regressed from last year’s exceptional home form, losing half of their eight matches at Audi Field this campaign. Striker Taxichiris Fountas has finally provided some much needed creativity in the front four after the departure of Paul Arriola. But even with him, D.C. are at times lacking cutting edge in front of their supporters. That is the main reason the Black-and-Red aren’t currently contending for postseason places like they did for most of a season ago. Their woeful away record — despite an expected goals difference of 0.0 — is more or less on par with 2021.

This is a winnable game for either side. But there shouldn’t be a clear favorite. As such, it makes sense to play Nashville on a draw-no-bet wager at 2.20 odds.

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CF Montreal v Charlotte FC

Two Eastern Conference sides meet across the border in the early hours of Sunday morning when CF Montreal play host to the newest team in MLS in Charlotte FC in a contest both will want a positive result after some mixed results recently.

CF Montreal were going great guns heading towards the middle of May but things have gone a little quiet since then with three defeats in their last four in MLS and being thumped by Toronto FC in the Canadian Championship semi-final in midweek.

Charlotte FC are a bit of a mystery in MLS. On the face of it, their debut season is going nicely enough when you consider that they currently reside in the play-off places, but that hasn’t stopped them from changing coach even though they are only three months into their MLS existence.

Clearly, there were a few things going on behind the scenes in Carolina but to be fair their results have steadily improved, although if they are going to be major players this season they are going to need to find more goals.

Charlotte have 16 in 16 in MLS but only five of them have come in their eight matches on the road and worryingly we are midway through the season and only two players have more than one goal for them this term.

One catalyst in Montreal flying and now stumbling is the injury to their leading scorer and best player Djordje Mihailovic and he is still missing here.

With confidence low in the home side and the away team still finding their feet on their travels I fancy a low-scoring encounter between two teams who suddenly have more questions than answers.

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Toronto FC v Atlanta United

Staying north of the border in the early hours of Sunday morning we have another clash between teams from the Eastern Conference when Toronto FC welcome Atlanta United to a BMO Field which should be a lot more vibrant after the hosts qualified for the Canadian Championship final in midweek.

Toronto FC have not had a good time of it in MLS of late. They have managed just four points from their last 24 available but as crazy as it sounds about a team who have lost six of their last eight matches, I don’t actually think they have performed as badly as their results have suggested.

Consistency has been an issue for Atlanta United this term but that was always going to be the case when Brad Guzan and Miles Robinson went down with lengthy injuries earlier in the campaign. The Five Stripes have finally brought in replacements for those two so we can expect them to get up to speed when their new men settle in.

That might not be here though so I fancy both teams to find the back of the net in this game. Toronto FC will be starting to get excited and inspired by the upcoming arrival of Lorenzo Insigne which should give a boost to good attacking talents in Alejandro Pozuelo, Aye Akinola and Jesus Jimenez.

Atlanta United have Josef Martinez back and fit and firing and in Ronaldo Cisneros and Dom Dwyer the backup to him is very strong and with Marcelino Moreno beginning to loosen the shackles the creative element is certainly there.

These two teams concede too many goals for my liking overall. Only San Jose Earthquakes have leaked more than the 29 of Toronto FC but 20 against in 14 games doesn’t highlight Atlanta’s defence in a great light either.

Both defences can be breached here.

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Houston Dynamo v Chicago Fire

The Houston Dynamo have the ninth-best home expected goals difference (xGD) in the Western Conference. The Chicago Fire have the ninth-best away xGD in the East.

That would place them as roughly even teams, which would suggest Houston have a win probability somewhere around the league average 49% home win rate.

Look a little further and you might like Houston’s chances a little better than that.

Historically the Dynamo have been one of the tougher home teams to beat in the summer months, when they’re acclimated to the oppressive heat and humidity of the Texas Gulf Coast region and opponents mostly aren’t. Temperatures are expected to rise up near 37 C on Saturday.

That’s easily the most oppressive heat Chicago will have played in this season. And if it provides an edge for the Dynamo in general, it may do so doubly against a Fire side that is reliant on Xherdan Shaqiri as its playmaker. The Swiss international is one of the league’s elite passers, but he’s still getting used to being asked to be a 90-minute contributor on a regular basis. He hasn’t played a full match since the end of May and is questionable with a hip issue.

More generally, the Fire have just been poor away from Soldier Field, losing six of their last seven matches.

Either Shaqiri is likely to come off the bench after missing last week’s win over D.C. United, or he is likely to become less effective as the match goes on. Either way, that should tilt the scale a bit more in Houston’s direction, making them worth backing here at 1.57 odds for a draw no bet.

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Real Salt Lake v Columbus Crew

Rio Tinto Stadium will be open once again in the early hours of Sunday morning when Real Salt Lake play host to the 2020 champions Columbus Crew in what is one of the standout fixtures in the latest round of matches.

The home side have moved their way up to second in the Western Conference table and will be eyeing up another three points here against a Crew outfit who haven’t really ever convinced since they lifted the MLS cup just over 18 months ago, despite a roster a lot of coaches would die for.

It is never easy for any team to go to Real Salt Lake and win. They have only dropped two points at home all season which came in a crazy game against Toronto FC, the like we don’t often see RSL get involved in.

There is hope on the horizon for the Crew fans. After allowing Gyasi Zardes to head for Colorado, they have purchased Cucho Hernandez from Watford and we are probably two weeks away from the Colombia international making his mark on the league. He is certainly a marquee signing but for now the Crew have to carry on without him.

What is worse for Columbus is that they are likely to be without their current star man Lucas Zelarayan for this game and that is not the situation they wanted to be in when heading on one of the toughest trips in the league.

Real Salt Lake have a 6-1-0 home record to their name this season and have only conceded four goals in that time, two of them in that draw with Toronto FC, and in Jefferson Savarino they have an attacker in fine form.

RSL look stronger in personnel and very much stronger at home than their opponents are away and I expect that to be outlined on the final score too.

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Portland Timbers v Colorado Rapids

The last match to kick off in the early hours of Sunday morning comes from Providence Park where the Portland Timbers will look to build on a solid draw at LA Galaxy last week when they host the Colorado Rapids.

This fixture is the reverse of a play-off match from last season, which the Timbers won to continue their progression to the MLS Cup final, but the Rapids have already avenged that defeat with a 2-0 win at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park earlier in the campaign.

I think the result of that first encounter this term can be reversed though because Colorado Rapids are not functioning at all well on the road. We all know the altitude advantage they have on home soil but away from home they have just two points from seven matches.

One of those points came away to New York City FC last weekend, which on paper looks a fantastic point, but when you consider they lost the xG battle 1.68-0.30 in a 1-1 draw it shows it was very much a smash and grab point.

Portland haven’t got it right too often at all this term but there is no doubt injuries are at play in their struggles thus far, so it was encouraging that Felipe Mora, Eryk Williamson, Jaroslaw Niezgoda and Claudio Bravo were all involved either from the start or on the bench last week.

The Timbers should get Bill Tuiloma back from international duty for this match too so the home side should be much closer to full strength and as a result we should begin to see they best of them. They look to have the ideal opponent to get the better of here in a win shy on their travels Colorado side.

If there is a winner I expect it to be the hosts.

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LAFC v New York Red Bulls

The New York Red Bulls are a very good side, but they face a difficult task when they travel across the country to face LAFC on Sunday afternoon local time.

New York will be less than four days removed from their U.S. Open Cup quarterfinal victory over rivals New York City FC that was dubbed by some as the most important match in the derby’s eight-year history.

And they face an LAFC side that still leads the race for the Supporters’ Shield and will be looking to re-state their case as favorites for the trophy awarded to the top regular season finisher.

Los Angeles have also been nearly perfect at home. And they’ve had a good dress rehearsal for the challenge the high-pressing Red Bulls will present in an earlier 2-2 home draw against the Philadelphia Union.

Steve Cherundolo’s men may have shared the points that night, but they were clearly the better chance creators.

There’s also a sense that maybe teams are figuring out what made the Red Bulls so dominant early on the road this season. Gerhard Struber’s men won an MLS record-tying first five matches away from home, and they still have a +1.7 expected goal differential (xGD) away from home. But in their last three matches (a draw and two defeats), that figure drops drastically to an xGD of -4.2. Some of that owes to a more difficult schedule. Of their five away wins, only two are against teams above the playoff line in either conference, and one came against a New England team more focused on continental commitments at the time.

The Red Bulls are a good side, but LAFC are a better and more well-rested one right now. And in a league where the home side wins a game of evenly matched teams nearly half the time, the Black-and-Gold are worth the 1.90 odds.

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Philadelphia Union v New York City FC

The total has gone under 2.5 goals in every single Philadelphia Union home match in 2022, and all but one New York City FC away game. And sometimes you just have to play trends like that, even if metrics suggest a regression is coming.

For starters, there is a sound explanation for why Philadelphia’s expected goals numbers are higher at home than their actual output: Their striker situation is unstable.

Mikael Uhre is taking time to acclimate to MLS while working through minor injuries. Julian Carranza, Corey Burke and Sergio Santos have all proven not quite capable of being “the guy” in Uhre’s absence.

Additionally, the fact that the Union have settled for draws also can drive up xG totals, since Philly is more likely to attack more aggressively in a tied match than in one where they’re defending a lead..

As for NYCFC, their downright gaudy home offensive totals obscure the fact their five away matches have featured a combined 11.3 xG between themselves and their opponents. They’re also still feeling out their identity under new interim manager Nick Cushing since Ronny Deila departed to take the helm at Standard Liege in Belgium’s Juliper League.

The total has gone under 2.5 goals in the last five MLS regular season and playoff games played between these sides, accounting for the entire Ronny Deila era. If Cushing is not trying to alter his team’s winning formula dramatically, it seems reasonable to expect more of the same, certainly enough to back a low scoring encounter at 1.87 odds.

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