Lillestrøm v Jerv

It was a mixed first match of the Norwegian Eliteserien for Lillestrøm last week as they came from 0-2 down vs Ham Kam to earn a 2-2 draw. They simply didn’t perform in the first half and there were several disappointing performances, most notably from new signings Frederik Holst and striker Holmbert Fridjonsson. Manager Geir Bakke made some excellent substitutions for the second half and eventually, Lillestrøm were probably the closest side to winning the game. New Nigerian striker Akor Adams who has been signed from 2nd tier Sogndal massively changed the game with his dynamic pace and movement up front, scoring a deserved goal to equalise. Lillestrøm have a big squad full of talent and just need to start the right XI combination now.

Travelling here are a Jerv side who got off to a dream start last week by beating Strømsgodset 1-0 in what was the first ever Eliteserien game in their history. It was not a deserved victory, but they won’t care. Jerv were outgunned 1.04 to 2.23 in xG last week so were very fortunate not to concede. They dug in hard defensively and put bodies on the line with the goalkeeper also making some good saves. To get 3 points was massive for this newly promoted team but that sort of performance is unsustainable, and you can see why they are the red hot favourites for an immediate relegation. Midfielder Leo Fernandes will be suspended here due to picking up a second yellow whilst on the bench last week.

Lillestrøm should win the game quite easily and something like 2-0 or 3-0 is to be expected. However, Jerv have a promotion bounce right now and if luck stays with them strange things could happen. A safer pick is probably to take Lillestrøm scoring over 1.5 goals. They have more than enough offensive firepower and we know that Jerv got very lucky last week, somehow not conceding despite having an xGA of 2.23. Lillestrøm themselves had an xG of 1.99 away vs Ham Kam and this is likely to be an easier fixture for their attackers to feast on. 

Rosenborg v Odd

There had been quite a negative mood amongst the press and media surrounding Rosenborg before the start of the season so they will be very pleased to have drawn 2-2 away to defending champions Bodø/Glimt last week. Few people gave them much of a chance in that game, but it was actually a match they could have even won if they had taken their chances when 1-0 up. Eventually, a fantastic equaliser by new midfield signing Tobias Børkeeiet earned RBK a point. Børkeeiet actually scored a brace of goals which is surprising because he is not normally a man known for his goalscoring. Before Glimt got awarded a penalty in the 63rd minute, Rosenborg had really limited the champions of Norway and despite having just 25% possession they looked well organised and dangerous on the break.

Odd travel to the Lerkendal Stadion with 3 points on the board after beating Tromsø 2-0 in the first round. There is no doubt there was an element of fortune about their victory though. Odd scored an early goal but then were outplayed for the majority of the match. It was a big surprise they managed to keep a clean sheet and the performance of talented goalkeeper Leopold Wahlstedt was probably the key factor. Odd were outgunned 0.7 to 1.4 on xG statistics and faced nearly 20 shots against in a home match. New manager ‘Paco’ Johansen will nevertheless be pleased that they showed strong character to win and keep a clean sheet. Odd will likely line up in a 5-4-1 formation here and sit quite deep, making themselves hard to break down. I think Rosenborg’s performance and result last week will have silenced a few critics and might also have got the fans back on their side. This is a different type of fixture in a match they are expected to dominate but there are plenty of positives for RBK and they should be good enough to beat Odd quite comfortably. The visitors just didn’t look very convincing vs Tromsø and this is going to be much more difficult. Rosenborg have the extra quality and now some momentum and I think the best bet is to take them straight outright to win.

Vålerenga vs Haugesund

Haugesund were probably the biggest disappointment in the first round as they lost 1-3 at home to Sandefjord. Defensively, they were an absolute shambles and in the first half alone could have conceded 4 or 5 goals. Haugesund were really bad, and it could be a long season for them if they continue with those sorts of performances. The squad is small and already FKH have injuries to some key players such as striker Martin Samuelsen and defender Thore Pedersen. Both are doubtful again for this match. Last week Haugesund had an xGA of 2.17. In the 2nd half Sandefjord just sat back so it could have been even worse if they had kept their foot on the gas. Haugesund played better after HT, but it was too late to rescue anything apart from a consolation goal.

Vålerenga also lost in the first round 0-1 away to Molde. They deserved to suffer defeat and were outplayed, but that was never going to be an easy match for VIF on the road facing one of the best sides in the Eliteserien. Vålerenga had some moments where they probably could have scored, with key striker Vidar Kjartansson missing one big chance at 0-0 which was well saved. Vålerenga only lost one home match last season. They drew too many games in front of their own fans, but it’s clear that they are difficult to beat at the Intility Arena. One negative for ‘Enga ahead of this match is the suspension of winger Aron Dønnum who recently returned to the club late in the transfer window. He looked lively against Molde but was sent off.

Vålerenga should be good enough to win this match quite comfortably. They usually have a strong defence, and I would say there is a good chance that Haugesund don’t score in this fixture. The visitors will not have much confidence after such a terrible result in round one and the biggest concern is a defence which is clearly missing big man Benjamin Hansen who transferred to Molde in the winter. I am expecting a convincing and fairly easy home victory, so the best bet is simply to take Vålerenga straight on the nose.

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Strømsgodset vs Molde

These two teams met as recently as Wednesday night in the Norwegian Cup semi-final, a match which Molde won 3-0. They generally have a very good record against Godset with the one exception coming in this fixture last season where they suffered an embarrassing 6-0 defeat here at Marienlyst Stadion. It was one of the key results of a title race which ultimately saw Bodø/Glimt go on and win the title. Molde will certainly be intent on some revenge and put to bed the ghosts of that match. They travel here already with 3 points on the board after beating Vålerenga 1-0 last week. Molde should have scored more goals in that fixture. They had an xG of 2.17 but a combination of poor finishing and some very good goalkeeping routinely denied them.

Strømsgodset are another side who should have scored more goals last week. They had an xG of 2.23 away to newly promoted Jerv but inexplicably lost 0-1. Godset will wonder how they failed to hit the back of the net but at least they created plenty of chances. The side form Drammen, who are dual managed by Bjørn Petter Ingebretsen and Håkon Wibe-Lund have had away problems for several years and are much better suited to games here at Marienlyst Stadion. They had the 5^th best home record in the Eliteserien last season with 8 out of 15 wins at this venue. The crowd often get strongly behind this team and create a great atmosphere. 10 out of 15 matches here ended with over 2.5 goals last season.

It is goals I like in this match. Molde have some of the best offensive firepower in the league and Godset will eventually find their striking boots with the likes of Fred Friday and Tobias Gulliksen in the side. I don’t think it would actually be the biggest shock if Molde didn’t win the game. They are favourites to prevail, but as last year’s fixture proved, this is not an easy venue to visit. Both teams may well score, but I think taking a straight over 2.5 goals pick is the best bet. Molde are capable of covering this goal line all by themselves if necessary. I sense the visitors might be vulnerable defensively though with right back Martin Linnes and centre back Martin Bjørnbak both doubtful due to injury.

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