It was surprising to see the goal line set for this match being so tight between the over 2.5 and under 2.5 line.

Nigel Pearson’s Bristol City side are in a good rhythm at the moment. It has been written in this column many times about how dangerous City can be going forwards with their plethora of forward options. The cool thing about this current Robins run is that the players that look so interesting and dangerous are almost a completely different set of players to earlier in the season or last season. Sam Bell, Mark Sykes, and Adam Scott are supporting Nakhi Wells and they aren’t missing Andreas Weimann, Antoine Semenyo, or Chris Martin at all at the moment.

Scott in particular is a complete star. Surely we are seeing him in Bristol City colours for the last time in these last few months of the season. Scott’s poise, technique, and improving decision making are key assets in allowing this Robins attack to unlock defences. Bell and Sykes give abundant energy for Scott to play in with the experienced Wells making intelligent runs and partaking in the build-up as well as getting in the box to score goals.

The Norwich City defence was shown to be exceptionally fragile against Burnley last week and if Bristol City are brave enough to press high and work all over the pitch, and I suspect that they are, then those fragilities could be exposed again.

One thing that we don’t need to be concerned about is the Norwich forward line. Since coming into the job David Wagner’s side have been far more attacking then his previous Huddersfield side at this level. With players of the quality of Teemu Pukki, Josh Sargent, Kieran Dowell, and others it is a good strategy. The major difference to Dean Smith has been the midfield balance, with more emphasis on ball-playing and creation with the use of Marcelino Nunez and Gabriel Sara being used deeper and more regularly under the German.

The data backs up goals here as well. Both sides have both generated an average of over a goal a game in terms of xG since the World Cup break, but, importantly, have both also conceded over a goal a game in terms of xGA since the World Cup as well. Finally, the last three home games of Bristol City have totalled 3.2xG, 4.4xG, and 2.7xG respectively, whilst Norwich City away matches have been 2.8xG, 3.3xG, and 3.6xG in the last three.

The Tigers have been slightly underestimated in this match by the layers.

In the xG table since the World Cup break Hull find themselves in the playoff positions, which means that their performances have ranked amongst the best in the division and they actually sit alongside Middlesbrough in the table, as an illustration. Meanwhile, Stoke mirror their lower mid-table position in 16th gathering around a point a match.

Stoke’s issue over this period has been chance creation. The xG shows that they have created 6.8xG over the 8 games since the break, so despite the fact they have scored 11 goals, that is still an over performance on what they ‘should’ have done. The price for this match has no doubt been affected by Stoke’s last home game where they thrashed Reading 4-0, but Alex Neil’s team’s inconsistency was laid bare by drawing a blank at Luton last week.

Meanwhile, Hull may have lost their last away game, but that was at Sheffield United. Before that they had won five and drew two, all of which would’ve seen this bet win. Liam Rosenior has his team performing in a consistent top half level using the recruitment and investment of the summer in an effective manner and with really good performers in each section of the team. The defence in particular looks very solid and well organised, the evidence for this is there as well with only 7.5xG conceded across their 9 games since the World Cup, joint 4th best in the league.

Stoke have only won three of their last ten at home as well. There is plenty of evidence that backing Hull/Draw on the double chance is a good wager.

The Black Cats are suffering without the lack of a central forward since the unfortunate long term injury to Ross Stewart and the recall of Ellis Simms by Everton. However, the longer that Tony Mowbray has to work with the problem, the more solutions that the manager should be able to find to get some goals.

They found two goals at home in the cup against Fulham in midweek and got themselves a deserved equaliser in the league last week too. Amad Diallo, Abdullah Ba, Jack Clarke, and Patrick Roberts are a very technically adept and flowing front four, and the movement of whoever is selected in the attack will cause a strong, but not athletic, Reading defence a lot of problems.

This is a Reading defence that has conceded the highest number of xGA since the World Cup, and that away from home has been consistently breached, only keeping one clean sheet in their last 10. They haven’t convincingly beaten anyone in those last ten on xG either as well meaning that they just can’t work out a system in any match at the moment to overpower an opponent. Reading tend to be quite reflexive in their games, and though playing on the counter-attack is obviously a genuinely effective strategy in the game, Reading just can’t seem to play it well enough to make it a real weapon.

In this match, Sunderland will have more of the ball, they will rack up a greater number of shots and chances, it is simply a case of whether those chances will be taken or not. The Black Cats have convincingly won the xG battle in four of their last five home matches, they have won three of them. There is a small concern coming off the FA Cup replay that there might be a bit more fatigue in their legs than in Reading’s, but Sunderland are a young, fit group and I doubt there will be much of that to concern Tony Mowbray.

Having unfortunately sat through 97 minutes of Blackburn vs Wigan on Monday I am well aware of the way that Wigan can frustrate a team at the moment. With Huddersfield deciding to dispense of the services of Mark Fotheringham this week as well then it is difficult to predict how either team will play in this match.

However, I suspect that pragmatism is going to play out here. Shaun Maloney took a safety first approach with his first match in charge of Wigan playing a back 5 with three strong central defenders and two tough tackling midfielders in front of that. The main problem Maloney will have though is that two of the central defenders used on Monday suffered injuries. Unfortunately, Martin Kelly will be out for the season, and Omar Rekik is a big doubt for this match too. I think this will make Maloney even more cautious though with not having as much faith in the individuals at the centre of defence so will use the system to can and cover for that.

Huddersfield under Fotheringham were not exactly dripping in goals though either. The Terriers are 5th worst in the Championship for xG created since the World Cup break, but, in fairness to Fotheringham, the defence had definitely improved under his tenure. Huddersfield tried to keep their matches very close in the hope of just picking up points through either draws or narrow wins. Of their last eight away matches none of them went over 3 goals, with 5 out of 8 being under the 2.5 goal line.

Quite a number of Wigan home matches have gone over 2.5 goals, which maybe adds a little bit of juice to the price. However, those matches were mainly under Kolo Toure, who had a bit of a remit to play a more expansive style, which just turned into a disorganised mess. Maloney already demonstrated in his one match that his rest defence was a concept easily taken on by the players and stopped Blackburn from counter-attacking effectively, especially down the centre of the pitch.