Blackpool v Nottingham Forest

The two top teams over the last four matches on expected points meet here at Bloomfield Road. Both teams have done their work in a similar fashion as well, denying their opponents chances at one end, both average 0.5xG against in the last four matches, and being much more threatening at the other end.

Blackpool have generally kept it tight against the better teams in the league this season. Under Neil Critchley they are guaranteed to be organised, they have prevented their opponents creating over 1xG in the last six matches in a row, the best run of any current Championship team.

Nottm Forest will be a tougher test than most though for the Seasiders. The nation has seen how well Steve Cooper’s men can play in their FA Cup run. If you go back 12 games, Forest have won the xG battle in 10 of the 12 games, their only ‘losses; were away matches against Preston and Cardiff, teams in and around Blackpool in the league standings.

With that information it would perhaps be too far to predict a Forest win here. They are the rightful favourites for the match but with Blackpool’s stubbornness, organisation and threat on the break, through the excellent Josh Bowler, there is too much doubt. However, I don’t see either side being able to run away with this one and betting Under 2.5 goals is probably the best bet here.

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Coventry v Blackburn

This is a battle of the teams just outside the playoff picture. Though Blackburn are sitting in 6th place, they have played more games than all of those under them so they are very likely to not be in the playoff picture when the games are evened up. As such, a win here would be huge for both sides.

It is perhaps Coventry who are more likely to view this match as a must-win. They are further behind the play-off places than Rovers and with this being a home match against an out-of-form opponent Mark Robins will likely have circled this as a winnable opportunity. Interestingly, this will be Coventry’s fourth home game in five and in their recent three against Luton, Sheffield United and Hull they only gained three points. However, they did win the xG battle in each of them and the one win was an emphatic display against Sheffield United.

This bet is mainly about opposing Blackburn though. Their loss to Reading before the international break made it seven away matches in a row that they have failed to score. Ben Brereton Diaz should be back for this match after playing 80 minutes for Chile in the international break, but the 20-goal man hasn’t scored since late December. The overriding issue is that there are so few goal threats in the team in general. If Rovers do score then it is unlikely to be more than one goal, which gives Coventry a great chance to get the points that they need.

Rovers also come back to domestic action with some defensive concerns. Darragh Lenihan is likely to be missing following an injury sustained with Ireland and the impressive Jan Paul van Hecke also got a knock with the Dutch U21s, but he has a chance of making it. There is some doubt as to whether this will mean a change of formation for Rovers as well, and the potential confusion doesn’t bode well either.

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Derby v Preston

Both of these sides are fixtures in the bottom half for chances created in the Championship and with Derby’s survival in the division on the line it is likely to be a cagey match.

Though performances have continued to be ok for Derby, their perennial overperformance in terms of points to expected points has slowed down to the point that survival in the Championship looks unlikely. However, it is was pretty unlikely all season and Wayne Rooney’s team have continued to show up and put it in the effort and scrap for everything. In the end it is potentially the lack of quality in certain areas of the pitch, particularly up front, that is going to see them come up short.

It is also one of the reasons to support an unders bet here. The tension and the lack of quality in front of goal is a potent combination. Preston themselves haven’t been free scoring, despite the positive impact of Cameron Archer’s loan spell since January.

Both sides’ matches have averaged around 2xG per 90 for practically the whole season. This hasn’t changed recently, with Preston and Derby both averaging 2.14xG per 90 in their last four matches. If there is an early goal then the pattern of the match could be completely different, but I can see a cagey opening 45 minutes with by far the most likely half-time scoreline being 0-0. What happens from there is a bit more difficult to predict but I don’t think that there will be three goals in the match.

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QPR v Fulham

QPR will be hoping that the international break has been enough to give them a total reset. Rangers were playing very poorly, and, in truth, that slump pre-international break had been coming.

Taking QPR’s last 16 games as a sample size they are actually 20th in the Championship expected points table over that time. They were 23rd if only taking the last four matches into account. Therefore performances, at both ends of the pitch, have been reminiscent of at least a lower mid-table side.

Fulham, meanwhile, are the best performing team over the course of the season. There have been slight dips but the Cottagers average close to 2xG per match whilst conceding only around 0.7xG per 90. Both of those figures are the best in the division.

In short, the evidence suggests that currently, and over the whole season, Fulham are a much better side than QPR. The odds on price does reflect this but I still don’t think that the layers are fully on-board with QPR being a bottom half quality side. The advice is to bet on Fulham.

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