Blackburn v QPR

Everything has been a bit delayed at Blackburn this summer. Tony Mowbray decided to leave just before the end of the season, but a replacement wasn’t in post until 14th June, just before the players reported back for pre-season. The week before, a Director of Football was announced. This meant a complete change of structure for the club and most of the recruitment department is also being restructured. 

As a result, only one new face will be on show for Rovers, who lost Darragh Lenihan, Ryan Nyambe, Joe Rothwell, Jan Paul van Hecke and Reda Khadra from their strongest XI last season. With pre-season being short this does feel like a significant hurdle to jump over first time out.

Of course, QPR have a similar story. A new man in the dugout, and a first-time manager at that. But Mick Beale has been in and around the first team picture at Rangers and Aston Villa for many seasons now and understands the game very well. He will have his structures firmly in place and probably has a deeper squad available to him at this stage than Jon Dahl Tomasson.

In most pre-season predictions there was very little between these two clubs, with people, including myself, placing them next to each other or within a few places.

This means that we should be seeing just home advantage factored into the prices to make Rovers favourites. However, Blackburn’s price is shorter than that and I believe that makes the double chance on QPR/Draw a value bet here.

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Blackpool v Reading

The argument for Reading double chance here is very similar to the case for QPR.

Blackpool were not planning for a change of manager. Neil Critchley filled Mick Beale’s boots at Aston Villa and left a gap for the board to fill. To be fair to Blackpool they moved fairly quickly for Michael Appleton who had recently left Lincoln City after a mediocre League One campaign.

Appleton is still seen by many as a promising coach, but at 48, he really needs to make a job work for him if he has desires to work higher up. For me he has a lot to prove at Championship level and Blackpool were a team that punched above its financial weight last season but were competitive due to good recruitment and excellent coaching.

Recruitment has been fairly slow for The Tangerines this summer and so the reliance on excellent coaching and tactical nous will be greater than ever. To be able to produce that first time out might be tough.

Reading are in most people’s relegation zone, and indeed, in mine too. However, I don’t believe that they are doomed. They had a mountain to climb to get a squad together for opening day, but they’ve done a half-decent job with it, or at least enough to appease some supporters.

I think they will struggle over the season but the players that have been brought in are mainly experienced heads that don’t need to learn the ropes. Ince will have them motivated to get a good start and there’s every chance that they will be able to turn in a cohesive performance fairly quickly, despite the squad churn.

Again, Blackpool are shorter than I expected given that the clubs are projected to finish fairly close together by most people’s opinions and that makes Reading Double Chance worth taking.

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Luton v Birmingham

I would consider these two clubs to be at the opposite ends of a lot of Championship spectrums; happiness of supporters, ownership quality, recruitment, and managerial familiarity.

Luton have had the summer that we now have come to expect from them. Early transfer business has allowed Nathan Jones to have an improved and deeper squad all throughout pre-season. Hopefully this will lead to a cohesive display with the gameplan well worked out for the visit of Birmingham City.

Forward options have certainly increased with the signings of Carlton Morris and Cauley Woodrow from Barnsley, forwards that offer completely different styles. Luke Freeman & Alfie Doughty can also provide extra attacking impetus whilst Ethan Horvath will hope to provide some stability in the goalkeeping department. It’s an upgraded team for sure.

Birmingham are forecasted to struggle by most pundits and bookmakers. Blues will continue to rely upon Scott Hogan, Troy Deeney & Lukas Jutkiewicz up front, at least for this match, and I think that js something that Luton will be well prepared to deal with.

On top of this it is also worth mentioning that this will be John Eustace’s first ever Championship match as a manager. Whilst I’m sure that he is going to be competent at the job it is something that he has never experienced before and this could be worth a couple of percent in Nathan Jones’ favour as well. 

With the Kenilworth Road crowd behind them The Hatters will be aggressive and on the front foot from the start. Hopefully, for our bet, this will translate into a comfortable home win.

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Millwall v Stoke

It can be difficult to work out opening days and where teams will be at in terms of their cohesion and readiness to play.

Sometimes opening days have lots of goals, but it is a bit of a gamblers’ fallacy that goal expectancy is higher on opening days of seasons. Often getting a result on the board, be it 0-0 or 1-1 is a way of getting your season moving.

It would certainly suit Stoke to keep it tight and hit on the break with the pace and movement of Jacob Brown and Tyrese Campbell but most importantly the defensive system at Stoke is set up for a game like that.

Stoke aren’t going to allow space for Benik Afobe to run into and nor will they be open enough to let George Saville or Zian Flemming break their lines too easily. It feels like goals on both sides will need to be well earned or lucky.

For their own part Millwall are always a tough proposition to score against in their own den. The Lions had the second-best defensive record in terms of goals conceded at home with only 16 in 23 games in 2021/22. 

On most evidence I can gather, both teams are likely to play 3 at the back systems. Often when this happens there is a really tight element to the game where space is at a premium. This in turn can lead to a lack of chances and, therefore, goals.

We are supporting a low goals angle in this match by covering 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 2-0, 0-1,0-2 with Under 2.5 goals.

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Hull v Bristol City

Hull City are one of the Championship’s most intriguing outfits this season. Major changes back in January 2022 saw Turkish businessman Acun Ilıcal end the Allam’s 11-year stint as owners of the Tigers, with Georgian Shota Arveladze arriving as manager. Summer transfer business, which includes several signings from the Turkish Super Lig as well as Óscar Estupiñán from Vitória S.C. and Jean Michaël Seri from Fulham, has left divided opinion on Hull’s season projections. Depending on who you ask, the Tigers may well be marked as this season’s surprise package in the second tier, or a potentially disastrous flop.

Bristol City meanwhile under Nigel Pearson will be keen to progress much further in 2022-23 after consecutive bottom eight finishes, and summer signings provide reason for optimism. The capture of standout League Two player Kane Wilson from Forest Green Rovers is a highlight, with the arrival of Oxford midfielder Mark Sykes and extremely versatile Luton man Kal Naismith adding to a squad that includes some bright homegrown talents and more experienced who enjoyed stellar personal campaigns last year.

There’s the potential of goals to set the new season at the MKM Stadium alight. Whilst Hull fans will be eagerly anticipating what’s to come from Estupiñán and Allahyar Sayyadmanesh, now a permanent signing from Fenerbahçe, Bristol City possess firepower of their own. 22-year-old Ghanian forward Antoine Semenyo is one of the Championship stars of the future, and Austrian Andreas Weimann scored a career best 22 league goals last year for the Robins. Some may well fancy the 30-year-old as an outside push for the Championship Golden Boot by the time the new season is done.

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