A rejuvenated Crystal Palace face Everton at Selhurst Park this Saturday and Roy Hodgson has his team firing! Since the return of the Hodgson, the change is form has been quite incredible. Previous to the managerial appointment, the Eagles hadn’t won in thirteen games in all competitions. They’ve now won their last three on the bounce and are averaging exactly three goals per game in this time! On the other hand, the Toffees have been on an indifferent run but with just a single win away from home all season long, I see them enduring a difficult afternoon in the capital.

So, with Palace firing on all cylinders in recent weeks, I’m extremely keen to get them onside in this encounter. Suddenly, they look a completely different proposition and are a team on the up as they look to steer clear of relegation. A win here could near enough confirm their Premier League status for next season and I fancy them to gain all three points.

A stat that caught my eye is that Everton have now conceded two or more goals in each of their last six away matches in the league. Now, Palace aren’t usually the type of team I’d expect to run away with a game but at this moment in time, I feel they may well do. As I previously mentioned, the goals have been flowing for the home side and there’s every chance this can continue. Eberechi Eze is the go to man right now and the English midfield star has notched three times in the last couple. He could well be the one to unlock the door in attack and what’s also interesting is that Palace have done all this without the influential Wilfried Zaha!

Everton themselves are starting to run out of time in their relegation battle, now sitting down in 17th place in the table. Their dreadful away form has been the main downfall throughout the season but the serious lack of goals is a major worry. It’s obvious that goals win games and coming up against this Palace side who currently can’t seem to stop scoring, I feel this will be a big ask for them.

It’s now an average of 0.45 GpG scored for the Toffees in their last eleven away matches and this stat alone really does put me off their chances here. In addition to this, they’ve blanked in seven of the last ten on the road which certainly plays into our hands taking a home win.

This pick seems too good to be true but with Palace on fire and Everton so poor in away games. Back the Eagles with confidence and there’s every chance of another winner!

Liverpool welcome a struggling Nottingham Forest to Anfield on Saturday afternoon, in a fixture I see going only one way! The hosts turned in an excellent performance last time out at Elland Road, as the Reds thumped Leeds by six goals to one. They ran riot in the second half scoring on four occasions and it was the usual suspects finding the back of the net. Both Mo Salah and Diogo Jota hit braces, with Cody Gakpo and Darwin Nunez also scoring in the win. On the other hand we have Nottingham Forest who lost comfortably to Manchester United last Sunday by two goals to nil. The poor run continued for Forest there and they remain winless in their last ten league games.

The home side have picked up in recent weeks and a dominant showing is in the offing. Jurgen Klopp has a near fully fit squad to select from and the attacking department is set to cause chaos. Luis Diaz was finally back in action having gained valuable minutes in the previous game and may feature again. As usual though it’s the Egyptian king that has been the main man in red hot form, he’ll be licking his lips at the prospect of facing a relegation threatened side. He’s racked up an impressive seven goals in his last seven PL outings, literally a goal every ninety minutes! Now up against a side that has been so poor on the road, losing their last five in a row away, there’s every chance he’ll be on the scoresheet. The previously mentioned Diogo Jota, Darwin Nunez and Cody Gakpo are all vying for a starting birth too, all of whom can cause serious damage in attack.

Despite Liverpool being under par on the whole this campaign, goals have still been a theme at Anfield. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 9 of the 15 PL games here and with Liverpool strong favourites to come out on top, I’m banking on the selection!

The Forest defence has been leaking goals at an alarming rate! Multiple goals have been conceded in their last five league away trips and the stats don’t lie. They’re now averaging 2.4 GpG being let in at the wrong end of the pitch, clearly enabling us to lean on the Liverpool win and over 2.5 goals.

There’s always the possibility they’ll find a goal from somewhere though and that’s most likely to come through their leading scorer, Brennan Johnson. The Welshman has been the most prolific player in their ranks and has notched on eight occasions. Three of these have come in the last seven, so here’s hoping!

Injuries are no doubt a worry for Steve Cooper’s men and they could be missing up to nine players for this one. Although, they do have a rather large squad to pick from after the transfer window spending we saw not only in the summer but in January too.

All in all I see Liverpool winning this game with ease and due to the poor run of form Forest have been on, as well as the goals flying in, I’m strongly backing this selection!

I am backing against Solihull Moors once again as they travel south to Eastleigh.

The Moors lost 1-0 in midweek at Barnet and lined up without either of their first-choice centre-backs (youngster Jevon Mills and midfielder Joey Jones stepped in) and without their first-choice midfield, leaving Neal Ardley giving a second senior start to academy graduate Morgan Owen and a first professional start to Max Brogan, who has stepped up two divisions. Meanwhile, striker Mark Beck completed the full 90 against doctors advice having not trained in the days leading up to the game.

That is good news for an Eastleigh side who need a win in their bid to overtake Bromley in the race for the top seven. The Spitfires have endured a tough April, picking up one point from four matches but those four were played in the space of eight days with Lee Bradbury making 15 changes to his starting XI in that time. He and his staff have had a full week on the training ground since, unlike Saturday’s opposition, and should be better for it in front of a home crowd.

For all of Eastleigh’s issues recently, they have scored seven goals in their last three, which stacks up well against a Solihull Moors side that have conceded an average of 1.92xG in their last four.

A big game at both ends of the table with Barnet keen to hold onto 5th spot and a home tie in the play-off eliminators and Maidenhead United keen to hold onto their status as a National League club.

The hosts thought they had done the hard work but the form of those below has catapulted the Magpies into a dogfight and they will need all of Alan Devonshire’s experience and knowhow to get them out of it. The good news is that their best work is completed at home against the best in the division – they have picked up 14 points from nine matches against the top ten at home.

Devonshire’s side play on tight margins. Nine of their last 14 matches have finished with two or fewer goals scored and on only two occasions has a team scored more than twice in their last 17. They have a similar record at home where 64% of matches have finished with under 2.5 goals and on only three occasions has a team scored more than twice.

Barnet themselves have focused on tight margins having endured a brutal schedule since late January – this will be their 24th match in 12 weeks, their only midweek rest being the England C game, and midfielder Ryan De Havilland started in that. The Bees have not conceded more than one goal in any of their last nine and seen under 2.5 goals in each of their last eight. They have welcomed back Harry Smith and Nicke Kabamba but both are being looked after as they return from injury.

I’m backing a side that could break a number of previously held records to thump by far the worst team in the National League by a scoreline that showcases the gulf in class.

Maidstone United have not won a league match since 26th November, picking up a miserable four points from their last 23 outings and having their relegation confirmed by Easter. Things haven’t improved since George Elokobi took the reins at all with four points from a possible 51 on offer, scoring 12 goals and conceding 36. They have conceded two or more in 13 of those matches and three or more on six occasions, including in three of their last five. They have been running without a senior striker or centre-back in the XI recently.

Notts County, on the other hand, are in great form. They have played 44 league matches this season, won 31, accrued 103 points and scored 111 goals. In any other season, they would have been promoted by Easter. It hasn’t put them off. Since a dip in performance level around early February, Notts have won nine of 13 matches, accruing an average xG of 2.04 and scoring three or more goals on eight occasions. Worse still for Maidstone, Notts have scored three or more goals in eight of ten league matches against the bottom six and accrued 3.29xG in another. They’ve also had a week off to give Aaron Nemane and Ruben Rodrigues time to get over knocks and also have Cedwyn Scott and Junior Morias fit again.

This could be a massacre.

I’m backing Woking to pick up a huge victory in their battle for third place and the all-important bye to avoid the play-off eliminators.

The Cards have been indifferent of late but there are signs that they are starting to settle again. For starters, they come into this having had a much-needed free week without a game which allows Scott Cuthbert, Kacper Lopata, Kyran Lofthouse and James Daly to further recover having returned to the starting XI recently, Darren Sarll desperate to get minutes in their legs ahead of the play-offs. And their performances have improved too, winning or being level in the xG battle in 12 of their last 14 matches, only outperformed by two of the top three. We should see a fresher Woking side here.

Meanwhile, Gateshead are seeing a dip. It’s understandable. This will be their tenth game in four weeks, which included a stretch of four games in eight days. Mike Williamson is doing his best to protect his players, making 13 changes to his starting XI over their last three fixtures and seeing his side fail to score in their last two. Notably, they’ve also finished the job that kept them going, reaching the FA Trophy final and securing survival after six wins in a row. Their job is done as far as the league goes – they have much less to play for that Woking.

Hartlepool United will fancy their chances of beating relegation rivals Crawley Town in a huge game at the bottom of League Two.

The Pools will be pleased to be back playing on home soil after back-to-back 2-0 away defeats at Newport County and Salford City. They were John Askey’s first two defeats in charge and he has made the North East side much harder to beat as they look to avoid slipping into the National League. Speaking after their most recent game at the Peninsula Stadium, the manager said his team have got to do ‘better’ and he will want to see a reaction this weekend.

On the selection front, key full-back Jamie Sterry is back fit again which is a boost, especially with fellow defender Euan Murray currently sidelined. Prior to their last two outings, Hartlepool hadn’t lost for eight games and that run of form leaves them only three points behind their next opponents in the table. They will be hoping home advantage acts in their favour this weekend and they are unbeaten in their last five fixtures on their own patch which shows Askey has made it into a fortress over recent weeks.

It has been a dismal campaign for Crawley and they are nervously looking over their shoulder towards their Hartlepool right now. The Red Devils drew 0-0 at home to 20th place Colchester United last time out and their boss Scott Lindsey said it was a ‘difficult’ evening for his players.

In terms of injury news, the Sussex outfit won’t be able to call on midfielder Jordon Mutch anymore because he is out for the rest of the season and other options in his position like Jack Powell and Bed Gladwin don’t possess the same experience. Crawley’s away form is a big worry and they have won just once in 20 outings on their travels this term and that was against a poor AFC Wimbledon side. They have lost 4-1 to Mansfield Town and 4-0 to Barrow in their away fixtures so far in April which proves their problems away from Broadhall Way are still present as they prepare for their biggest clash of the season so far. Lindsey’s side have conceded a whopping 69 goals in 43 matches and their defensive frailties could come back to haunt them in the end.

Northampton Town are in a great position to get themselves automatic promotion as they eye another win over 21st place Harrogate Town.

The Cobblers are five points inside the top three with three games of the season left to play after their 2-1 away victory at Sutton United on Tuesday courtesy of goals by attacking pair Louis Appere and Mitch Pinnock. Their boss Jon Brady was delighted with the three points and said afterwards that it was an ‘incredible’ performance by his players so if they can play like that against relegation threatened Harrogate they should have enough quality to secure another significant result.

On the injury front, defender Jon Guthrie has been ruled out until the summer but Sam Sherring is a perfectly capable alternative in the heart of defence for the remaining few matches. Northampton have picked up momentum at the right time and will take some stopping now as they look to get themselves over the line. They have the added incentive of just missing out on goal difference last year and have lost just once in their last 12 outings so are going the right way about it this time around as they eye another win this weekend.

Harrogate are in good form in fairness and are nearly there in terms of securing their Football League status but they are in for a tough test on Saturday though against 2nd position in the table. The Yorkshire club beat Walsall 3-0 last time out after goals by attacker Sam Folarin, winger Kazeem Olaigbe and midfielder Alex Pattison and their manager Simon Weaver said his side played some ‘exciting’ football but they will need to take a more reserved approach against Northampton to avoid getting caught out on the break.

The Sulphurites have no fresh injury concerns ahead of this one but it is worth noting that key defender Warren Burrell and forward Folarin are both only one yellow card away from picking up a suspension.

Harrogate only really need one win out of their final four to stay up which means they aren’t desperately in need of a win at Sixfields. It has been a difficult season for Weaver’s men and they are set to end it on negative goal difference and only a few places above the drop zone which is something that they will be keen to address ahead of the next one.

Walsall are in dire form as they lock horns with a Salford City side looking to secure themselves a spot in the play-offs.

The Saddlers have nothing to play for and it is showing as their results continue to go downhill. They were thumped 3-0 away at Harrogate Town last time out and they have sacked manager Michael Flynn. He slammed some of his players afterwards saying they don’t ‘care enough’. The Midlands outfit remain without suspended midfielder Joss Labadie and miss his experience in the middle of the park with players in his position like Brandom Comley and Liam Kinsella struggling to make an impact at the moment. Walsall have endured a very disappointing 2023 so far and have won just once in their last 20 fixtures in League Two in a run of fixtures that has seen them slip down to 15th in the table. If they weren’t so impressive during the first-half of this campaign then they would be in a relegation battle right now. There is obviously trouble bubbling away behind the scenes based on Flynn’s comments after their most recent loss and they will just want this season to end now so they can start to rebuild for the next one.

Salford will be in confident mood after their 2-0 home win over Hartlepool United on Tuesday evening courtesy of goals by strikers Matt Smith and Louie Barry. That result leaves the North West side in 7th position inside the play-offs above Mansfield Town on goal difference. Speaking after the Pools’ clash, boss Neil Wood said he was ‘really pleased’ that they kept a clean sheet and he will be hoping for more of the same against Walsall next up.

On the selection front, midfielder Ryan Watson remains sidelined but the Ammies have strong options in his position with options like Stevie Mallan, Elliot Watt and Jason Lowe which shows their strength in depth. Salford have lost only once in their last six games away from home and proving to be a tough nut to crack on their travels right now as they look to pip Mansfield to the final position in the top seven. They have quality options all over the pitch, especially in attacking areas with Smith, Barry and Callum Hendry, so they will fancy their chances of beating their next opponents who are a shambles at the moment.

Bradford City need to win against already safe Gillingham to keep their push for promotion on track.

The Bantams remain in a strong position to get promoted and can even still get automatic promotion as they have a game in-hand on Stockport County, Carlisle United and Northampton Town above them. They were beaten 1-0 away at Swindon Town on Tuesday night and will be desperate to bounce back from that disappointing loss in front of their own fans on Saturday.

Their boss Mark Hughes admitted it was a ‘tough’ loss to take against the Robins and he will be keen to see a reaction from his players now. Right-back Brad Halliday missed the trip down to the County Ground through illness and is looking to return against the Gills, with Luke Hendrie stepping in for him. Bradford hadn’t lost for 11 games going into their clash against Jody Morris’ side and had found a knack of picking up results which they need to recapture now as they prepare for some big fixtures ahead. They have the top scorer in the league in Andy Cook, who has fired in 24 goals this term, and if he can find his shooting boots again his team should have enough to pick up some more victories in their quest for League One football.

Gillingham have been in decent form at home but they are a completely different outfit when they play away. They have lost their last three outings on their travels on the spin against Walsall, Barrow and Northampton Town and haven’t won away from Priestfield in their previous five which shows they have trouble finding their feet in unfamiliar environments. Nevertheless, they are enjoying themselves on their own patch and beat table toppers Leyton Orient 2-0 last time out after goals by winger Alex McDonald and defender Cheye Alexander and their manager Neil Harris said it was a ‘brilliant’ performance. They are mathematically safe and they can afford to put their feet up for the remaining three games of this campaign.

On the injury front, Dom Jefferies remains sidelined with the likes of Tim Dieng and Shaun Williams playing in his position. Despite the achievement of survival, it hasn’t been the best year overall for Gillingham and their lack of goals has been a worry. They have only scored 32 goals in their 43 matches which is the worst return in the division, with bottom club Rochdale even managing to find the net more times.

Automatic promotion is probably a stretch for Mansfield Town now. The objective for the Stags has to be securing a play-off place in their final four games. Eighth ahead of the weekend on just goal difference, but holding a game in hand over seventh place Salford City, Mansfield Town start a run of three consecutive home games and simply need to take advantage.

Nigel Clough has been challenged by his injury list, but is still able to put a quality team in a 3-5-2 or 4-3-3. Alfie Kilgour has been an excellent January addition in the centre of defence. Hiram Boateng is stepping up his levels after getting an opportunity in central midfield. The 27-year-old has three goals across his last four games. The incredibly versatile Lucas Akins leads the line, with Jordan Bowery finally getting to be deployed further forward and Davis Keillor-Dunn targeting more opportunities to add to the five goals that he has scored since arriving in the winter from Burton Albion.

How precious could the last two wins prove for Stevenage and their promotion hopes? The Boro’s first victories for six games, coupled with other results, leaves Stevenage in third with a four point gap between themselves and fourth. Steve Evans’ side previously looked a team capable of challenging Leyton Orient for the title, but recently have had a worrying drop in form for a promotion chaser. Stevenage deserve credit for taking advantage of two consecutive games against out-of-form mid-table sides, but have won just once against top eight opposition since the start of 2023.

Jordan Roberts continues to prove a key figure in attacking midfield, especially in the absence of focal point striker Luke Norris. Jamie Reid and Danny Rose have been the regular starters up top recently in a 4-3-1-2. Stevenage have a good pair of defenders in Carl Piergianni and Dan Sweeney, but are on another level when Guyana defender Terence Vancooten is also available to play. He has missed the last two matches.

Another key fixture up at the top of League Two comes this weekend. Stevenage’s wins have given them some valuable breathing space against the other promotion contenders, and that could prove vital as they head to a Mansfield Town side on Saturday who despite injuries possess plenty of threat. In truth, the Stags need this win more than Stevenage do right now.

This game will be crucial for both sides, with Southport 3 points clear of the relegation zone and Kidderminster 2 points off the playoff spots. If the away side want any chance of sneaking into the top 7, they must essentially win all of their remaining games. There are currently only 3 points between 5th place and 12th meaning no one can afford to slip up.

This is one of the reasons I expect the Harriers to come away with the win here. It is also worth looking at the position of the home side. It is no secret that Southport fans are incredibly worried about their National League North status. They’ve lost their last 6 league games which has put them in a very uncomfortable position, giving them the worst current form in the entire league. On top of this, they haven’t won a game at Haig Avenue in their last 7 fixtures – this will be no easy test for them.

Jordan Archer has been their primary goalscorer this season. Whilst he has been finding the back of the net, it’s been sporadic if anything and his recent form shows this. When you consider that Kidderminster haven’t conceded a single goal in their last 450 minutes of football – I imagine they’ll keep Southport’s chances to a minimum. In terms of the threats from Kiddy, their goals have come from all angles this season which I expect Southport to really struggle with. As seen in their first half against the Linnets last week, they managed to take a lead by doubling up on their main man Gold Omotayo and hitting them on the counter. Once the league leaders looked for other options, their defensive efforts crumbled and Omotayo still managed to get himself a brace.

Hemmings and Morgan-Smith have been really impressive for the away side in recent games, whether on the scoresheet or not – I expect them to tear apart the Southport defence.

This game is set up to potentially be the best of the weekend, with Eastbourne clenching on to the final playoff spot and Braintree only one point behind with a game in hand. If Eastbourne win here, they will go four points clear meaning all they will have to do is match Braintree’s results for the rest of the season. The same applies to Braintree if they get all 3 points here. With Havant & Waterlooville 5 points behind them and in dreadful form, it is pretty safe to say that this game is the decider for the final playoff spot.

I expect both teams to find the back of the net here and here’s why. These teams have been inseparable over the course of the season and this is why they’ve found themselves in the position they’re in. It’s very difficult to state who the better team is within any factor. They’re both on similar form and equally good on paper.

The big difference between the two is that Eastbourne have been better in front of goal this season whereas Braintree’s defensive efforts have been considerably stronger, conceding 9 goals less. Neither of them have had any particularly prolific goalscorers, with the goals coming from across the whole pitch.

However, Aaron Blair and Shiloh Remy will be the biggest threats come Saturday. With both teams having a specific player that the goals run through, it’ll be interesting to see how the sides set up to either isolate them out of the game or mark them zonally with the rest of the attack in
mind.

Either way I expect that both teams have the attacking presence to break through at least once in this game. With so much on the line, once one team scores, the other team can be expected to give it absolutely everything to get back into the game.

Sheffield Wednesday have rather spectacularly handed the impetus at the top of League One over to Plymouth Argyle and Ipswich Town in the last month or so, after being a very short price at one stage to win the league title.

The Owls will most likely need to win all three of their remaining fixtures to have a chance of breaking back into the top two, trailing second-placed Ipswich by one point and Argyle by two, but having played one game more than the pair.

Exeter City have picked up just two points from the last possible 18 on the road and have lost their last four on the bounce ahead of the weekend’s trip to Hillsborough. Gary Caldwell’s men have only scored twice in that run and are significantly weakened with Cheick Diabate, Demetri Mitchell, Jay Stansfield and Jevani Brown unavailable of late.

Injuries to George Byers and Josh Windass have seen a clear drop-off in the Owls’ performances but they should be able to build on their midweek 2-1 win at Bristol Rovers to keep the pressure up on the top two.

Almost completely regardless of League One opposition right now, Ipswich Town cannot be ignored at a backable price.

The Tractor Boys will finish comfortably in mid table, if not better, in the Championship next season if they continue their current performance levels under Kieran McKenna.

Peterborough United welcome the Tractor Boys to London Road on Saturday in hoping to make it back-to-back wins after winning at Accrington Stanley on Tuesday evening. Darren Ferguson’s men’s trip to Accy puts them at a disadvantage in their preparation whereas Ipswich beat Port Vale at home.

Nathan Broadhead returned to the Ipswich side with a brace and provided the quality in fine margins that they have been missing at times this term.

The Posh have drawn two blanks in their last five matches, against Oxford United and Cambridge United, and may have their work cut out against Ipswich, who have kept ten clean sheets in their last 12, blunting the likes of Charlton Athletic, Wycombe Wanderers, Derby County, Bolton Wanderers and Bristol Rovers.

Having won ten of 11, it is not yet time to get off the Ipswich train.

Bolton Wanderers have been put up at a short but fair price as they prepare to host Shrewsbury Town on Saturday.

The Shrews have had a brilliant season under Steve Cotterill but have run out of steam, understandably so, and have picked up just one point from the last 18 available, scoring just three goals.

The Trotters have only lost three home games all season and a play-off place remains in their hands. The quick turnaround suits the hosts, who drew 1-1 at Burton Albion on Tuesday, while the Shrews lost 2-1 to Argyle, and named players of the quality of Dan N’Lundulu, Cameron Jerome, Declan John, Josh Sheehan, Shola Shoretire and Elias Kachunga on the bench.

Dion Charles has scored three goals in his last two matches against the Shrews and is 2.20 to score anytime.

With Peterborough potentially set to drop points against Ipswich, a win on Saturday would see the Trotters take a huge step towards securing a play-off berth in just their second season since promotion from League Two.

The nature of their defeat to Argyle, conceding in the 96th minute, in midweek will have further knocked the stuffing out of the Shrews, they have also lost all of their last four away games.

My anti-Morecambe stance has not been subsided by their 1-0 win over Wycombe Wanderers last weekend.

The Chairboys were the dominant side throughout and Morecambe’s late goal came from a speculative low probability, long range effort.

Charlton Athletic bounced back from their 6-0 loss at Ipswich Town last weekend with a 1-0 victory at Milton Keynes Dons on Tuesday evening. The Addicks have beaten five of the current bottom nine since Dean Holden took over in late December, including a 4-1 win at Morecambe.

Lucas Ness, Corey Blackett-Taylor and Chuks Aneke remain sidelined for the hosts, who have scored nine goals in their last two matches at The Valley.

The Addicks have scored in ten of their last 11 at home, with their only blank in that run coming against Sheffield Wednesday in the midst of their 23-game unbeaten patch from earlier in the campaign.

Jesurun Rak-Sakyi, Miles Leaburn and the interchangeable supporting cast for the Addicks should create plenty of goalscoring opportunities against the Shrimps’ backline, which has been the fourth-most leaky in the division this term.

The price on the Addicks is short considering what they have to play for, but the Shrimps have been performing like a side destined for League Two for some months now and the trip to South London could come close to sealing their fate.

It is going to be tight race for the final two play-off places. There is just a single point separating fifth place Peterborough United from seventh place Derby County. The Rams will in turn know that with sixth place Bolton Wanderers possessing a game in hand on them, perfection from their final three matches against Burton Albion, Portsmouth and Sheffield Wednesday really needs to be the target.

Paul Warne’s side need their superstar on top form to pull that off. David McGoldrick netted twice down at Exeter City on Tuesday to bring his tally to 21 league goals and 24 in all competitions. Regularly deployed at either attacking midfield or as the lone striker, the 35-year-old is a true cut above League One level, often gliding around the pitch and utilising his vastly superior game intelligence. Nathaniel Mendez-Laing is another key figure in a winger of wing-back role. Republic of Ireland International Conor Hourihane is a key component in midfield alongside Max Bird or Jason Knight. Eiran Cashin is an ever-impressive and near ever-present presence in the backline, a dominating figure at the age of just 21 and a vital cog alongside the likes of Craig Forsyth, Haydon Roberts, Curtis Davies and Jake Rooney in the Derby backline.

Burton Albion’s turnaround under Dino Maamria deserves immense praise. Seemingly doomed just a matter of games into the season, the Brewers have transformed their season under the Tunisian and sit on a very healthy 49 points with five points left to play. Mathematic safety is close and feels inevitable. Burton will be boosted for this trip by a run of seven points from three home games against high-ranking Barnsley, Sheffield Wednesday and Bolton Wanderers. That strong record is not replicated on the road however, where a 1-1 draw with Peterborough United is the only result away at the league’s top 10 sides where Burton have avoided defeat. A tendency to try and slow down play to frustrate the opposition early on has not had the desired effect as the quality of their hosts pull through before the end. If they are to get anything from this short trip up the A38, goalkeeper Craig MacGillivray, central defender Sam Hughes, technical midfielder Joe Powell and prospect striker Dale Taylor will all need to be at their best.

The pressure is all on Derby County for this game. The Rams realistically need to target the maximum points return from their final three games, starting at home to a practically safe Burton Albion side. The history of Derby County and Burton Albion is not one of a fierce rivalry, more of a good relationship where Derby for a long time believed that Burton were merely like a second team to themselves and some of their supporters. The Brewers have climbed up to the same level as them in recent seasons and have proved a challenging hurdle for Derby to get over. The absolute last thing Rams fans will want now is to see their supposed ‘little brother’ come back from Pride Park with any points.

Promotion has already been secured, now is the time to wrap up the Championship title. Burnley’s 10-point lead over second place Sheffield United means that a win this weekend seals top spot regardless of what happens elsewhere. Vincent Kompany’s formidable outfit are unbeaten in league fixtures since the 5th November, a 5-2 loss at Sheffield United that was succeeded by a run of 10 consecutive victories. Top scorer Nathan Tella was absent having been forced off early in last weekend’s draw at Reading, but Kompany is simply able to add quality into the team in his place. The likes of Ashley Barnes, Scott Twine, Lyle Foster, Manuel Benson, Anass Zaroury, Vitinho and Michael Obafemi have all contributed across the season in an attacking 4-2-3-1. Jóhann Berg Guðmundsson had been utilised in a number of midfield and frontline positions this season and it was only recently that he emerged from the bench to score both goals in a controlled 2-0 victory over Sheffield United at Turf Moor.

Whilst Burnley are climbing out of the Championship, Queens Park Rangers could well be heading in the other direction. On Wednesday night, Gareth Ainsworth’s side drew from a winning position against Norwich City, leaving the R’s still in a precarious position just above the second tier relegation zone. Ainsworth’s arrival at Loftus Road really has not had the desired effect, winning just once in his 10 games and collecting just five points from a possible 30. With just three games left this season, there is a serious risk of QPR’s decline leading to them dropping down into the third tier next season. A simple flat 4-4-2 isn’t proving effective. Young defender Aaron Drewe is being thrown in at the deep end at right-back. Ilias Chair and Jamal Lowe are wingers capable of moments of quality, but those have been few and far between. Lyndon Dykes and Chris Martin usually feed of service which in this QPR team is limited.

Burnley will not just be wanting to win the title this weekend, they will be wanting to win it in style against a Queens Park Rangers side that is possibly the worst-performing team in the Championship right now. The quality, confidence and momentum of these two teams are truly incomparable. Burnley have been particularly dominant at Turf Moor, unbeaten at home this season and recording 2+ goal wins against Millwall, Swansea City, Crawley Town, Blackburn Rovers, Middlesbrough, Birmingham City, Preston North End, Huddersfield Town, Wigan Athletic and Sheffield United. The Clarets will be keen to add a miserably out of form QPR to that list on Saturday.

What can you say about Coventry’s last minute of football? Despite a possible handball, Ben Wilson’s last-gasp equalizer was allowed to stand against Blackburn. This simultaneously kept Coventry’s hopes of a top six berth very much in sight, and prevented Blackburn the chance to get away from the chasing pack.

There are few ways as potent as a last-minute equalizer, especially by a goalkeeper, especially against a positional rival, to energize a fan base, and a club as a whole. Believers in momentum would certainly suggest that the Sky Blues would enter this match in great spirits and would use their impetus from last time out to take the game to their opponents.

Blackburn largely nullified the Coventry attack on Wednesday night. Rovers did so by, first of all, retaining possession of the ball, something which Reading don’t tend to do very well on the whole, and then, secondly, using a lot of energy to regain the ball quickly. Again, this is not a normal trait of Reading’s, they have generally been a low-block, deep-lying team when out of possession.

The point to discussing this is that although Coventry were creatively stifled on Wednesday, this probably won’t be the case in this match. Overall, since 1st February, Coventry have amassed the second highest xG in the Championship, behind Middlesbrough. This proves that they are able to create enough chances to win matches and in Reading they almost have the perfect opponent for this game.

The Royals have a truly dreadful away record. No away win since 12th November at Hull, and in their last ten away matches they have lost eight and have managed an xG differential of -1.1xG per match, effectively conceding enough chances to expect to be a goal behind in every match on average. That is not a particularly healthy position to be in going to Coventry, who, themselves, are +0.3xG across their last 10 home matches. This would be greater but for spectacular collapses vs Norwich and Stoke.

Pleased to get Coventry at a backable price here and will support them with a strong bet.

The last thing that you need when you are Watford at this moment is to come up against a team that is well-drilled and organised. That is how I see Liam Rosenior’s Hull team. The Tigers may be devoid of ultimate high quality, especially going forwards, but they are compact and resolute and that may be enough to thwart this entangled Watford collection of players.

Chris Wilder did not beat around the bush in an interview that was, interestingly, promoted by the official club Twitter account. Wilder was plain speaking about the incapacity of the group of players on the pitch to follow a tactical plan. Against Cardiff in midweek they followed the plan beautifully to go 1-0 up and then the plan fell apart. Wilder suggested that there are individuals in the team who take it upon themselves to decide what the best moves to make are in certain situations, rather than sticking to the tactical plan.

There is no real agenda to galvanise the players and the club here with Wilder. He knows, and everybody knows, that come the end of the season, he will be back on the market as a free agent and the club will be looking for a new manager. This was just Chris Wilder talking as he saw it, and it is worrying for the club that they have allowed themselves to get into this position with the playing staff.

Either way, it surely cannot be a positive thing for the remainder of the season. Yes, the group of players there are exceptionally talented for this level, but they cannot succeed if what Wilder portrays is accurate.

From a betting perspective it does make Watford a very tricky team to assess. I am against them now because of what has been said publicly, but also their performances and results, especially away from home, makes them unbackable.

In terms of expected points, they are just behind Hull in the expected points league table since 1st February. Add home advantage into the equation and you could say that Hull should be shorter here based just off that. Watford’s recent away record has been appalling as well, no win in seven away from Vicarage Road, and a -0.6xG average differential across the last 10 away matches.

Hull haven’t exactly been convincing at home but they have lost only one in ten at the MKM Stadium, so taking the draw no bet option appeals because a draw would return our stake.

I was in a position where I was thinking of tipping Birmingham for this match. Blackpool’s away record is abysmal and Birmingham aren’t playing ‘beachy’ football at all, Eustace has them bang up for the challenge of each match.

However, having watched their impressive, on paper, away win at Millwall in midweek, it became apparent how tired some of the Birmingham players were. The reason for this tiredness, of course, is that their squad is paper-thin.

There have been a lot of injuries, especially to forward players, over the last few weeks and months, and I’m sure, if John Eustace had a choice, 34-year-old Lukas Jutkiewicz would not be playing back-to-back-to-back 70-90 minute matches over a couple of months as he has been doing. He was barely running at the 55 minute mark against Millwall, and yet he is likely to start again here through a lack of options. Jobe Bellingham may well keep his place too, though the youngster did a good job on Tuesday, he still has a lot to learn to be effective at this level.

Having said all that, I still think that a Birmingham win is the most likely result. Blackpool have lost their last eight away matches and have an average -0.6xG differential over their last ten away matches. They have scored only six times in those ten matches, their xG has gone above 1 only three times, and they never scored twice in one of those fixtures either.

The big piece of evidence that makes me want to support under 2.5 goals rather than simply a Birmingham win though is looking back through Birmingham home matches. It would be unexpected for Birmingham to score more than once and I don’t like that tight a margin when betting on a win.

Instead we can observe that Birmingham’s last six home matches have gone under 2.5 goals. The total xG generated in these matches is horrifically low as well, meaning that the chances aren’t being created by either side in these matches. One has to go back to the 2nd January to find the last match that went above 1.5xG at St, Andrews. Here’s hoping for another turgid battle in Birmingham.

There hasn’t been a Preston-Blackburn derby with as much riding on it since the 2001 match in the old Division One (still the second tier) when Blackburn Rovers confirmed their promotion back to the Premier League with a Matt Jansen header. Blackburn could all but confirm their spot in the play-offs with a win here and knock Preston’s chances to almost zero at the same time.

Of course, with a Preston win, everything remains wide open. Neither team is in the greatest of immediate form, indeed, both had very tempestuous midweek fixtures. Preston’s manager Ryan Lowe will actually be missing from the dugout here after a fracas against Swansea saw him receive a one-match touchline ban.

Blackburn really should be coming into this match with a greater margin for error. Having dominated the first half against Coventry, and limited the Sky Blues to only three Gus Hamer shots, they conceded a 90+5 equaliser to Coventry’s keeper, Ben Wilson. The fact that there was a perceived handball in there as well will only serve to pile on the injustice to the Rovers players.

Despite playing a much improved brand of football in recent weeks, Blackburn are still struggling to create big chances and certainly they are struggling to score the amount of goals required to solidify their challenge for the top six. Sam Gallagher, who did score a fantastic header against Coventry, went off injured on Wednesday, and is likely to be missing for this one. Despite his lack of finishing skill, Blackburn still use the forward to build attacks from and he will be a miss from that perspective.

Preston are actually the lowest scoring team in the playoff mix, and indeed the 5th lowest scoring in the entire league. Tom Cannon has certainly been in excellent form of late of course though, but outside of the Everton loanee there looks to be little support for him.

The overriding feeling ahead of this derby is that it is likely to be tense. This does not usually lend itself to free-flowing, high-scoring football. The form book can be thrown out of the proverbial window to an extent and with both sides short on goalscorers, it should be a tight, low-scoring encounter with possibly more cards than goals.