Reading v Watford
The Hornets’ injury crisis has taken a toll on their league form recently. Though Slaven Bilic’s side won their last match away at Norwich, they are down to the bare bones of their squad.
This means that there are two potential scenarios for this Saturday lunchtime kickoff. Either the same players will have to turn out again and risk fatigue for this match, and the subsequent Championship programme, or Bilic will have to find more young players to take minutes. The club’s official website informs us that 15 senior players are unavailable and that some Academy graduates are expected to play here.
Paul Ince will also rotate his squad but from the information in the public domain it appears as though it will only be a partial rotation with players from the substitute bench getting starts where necessary.
The Royals have been strong at home this season. Their style of play should suit this fixture too with a deep, organised block and the ability to break and catch their opponents out. Even away at West Brom last week, despite facing most of the first hour in deep defence, Ince’s side were able to come out and dominate the last 20 minutes or so and were probably unlucky not to get an equaliser in the end.
Watford’s goals this season are firmly fixed on promotion back to the Premier League. Winning the FA Cup is exceptionally unlikely and therefore, knowing the owners, there is much more sense in concentrating on the league campaign. I doubt that there will be many spilt tears if Watford go out of the FA Cup at the first time of asking against a fellow Championship club.
Forest Green Rovers v Birmingham City
Stuck on a 4-game losing run, Forest Green may be League One’s bottom club at current, but like the rest above are within touching distance of exiting the third tier relegation zone. Ian Burchnall has needed additions to his struggling side this January window, and business so far has been encouraged. Centre-back Brandon Cooper arrives on loan from Swansea City, having previously caught the eye at Newport County in the division below. Jordan Garrick is another Swansea arrival, the versatile forward joining on a permanent deal. With Connor Wickham’s contract over, and last season’s dangerous front two of Matty Stevens and Jamille Matt both getting back up to full speed, there is hope on the horizon for FGR in terms of league matters.
This weekend however provides a focus on a competition where Forest Green have exclusively played seventh tier sides in up to this point. Saturday’s opponents provide a much stronger, more professional test in the form of Birmingham City. John Eustace’s side are themselves on a disappointing run of three straight defeats, but have demonstrated across the season to be a much more competitive side than Blues teams of recent seasons. Key to their 3-5-2 setup is a well-balanced midfield trio of Derby County loanee Krystian Bielik, alongside aggressive Manchester United loanee Hannibal Mejbri and technical Dutchman Tahith Chong. Emmanuel Longelo has caught the eye in a left-wing-back role whilst on loan from West Ham United, based further ahead of a backline that includes Arsenal loanee Auston Trusty. Top scorer Scott Hogan is only a very recent returner from injury, but Blues can still call upon club captain Troy Deeney and the aerial threat of Lukas Jutkiewicz.
2023 will see Forest Green Rovers look to sure up defensive issues. Only Burton Albion have conceded more goals in League One this season, and no third tier has conceded more goals at home than FGR’s total of 23. The Green Devils’ squad still seems too focused on playing a possession-based, intricate style of play despite being in a position that calls for more grit and general solidity. Against a higher quality Championship opponent, the third tier’s basement club could have their work cut out to end their losing streak.
Ipswich v Rotherham
There is every chance that these two clubs will swap places at the end of the season. Ipswich are the favourites for promotion from League One and Rotherham are really struggling to keep their heads above the Championship relegation zone.
As a result of that, the price for an Ipswich home win here looks acceptable. Though both clubs’ priorities for the season are likely to be elsewhere, Ipswich’s cup tradition means that the club usually does take this competition seriously. They have thrashed two non-league sides in the early rounds but will have every right to feel like the favourites here, even against a side above them in the pyramid.
Even if both sides decide to rotate, it is Ipswich who have the deeper squad. Rotherham are going through something of an injury crisis at the moment and it wasn’t a deep squad to start with. Pleasingly for the Millers Chieo Ogbene and Lee Peltier were back in training this week o they may be in contention to play some part. Even so, Rotherham have the worst record on the road in the Championship in terms of chances created vs chances conceded.
Ipswich, in the performance metrics, are the dominant force in League One. Though their points collection has dropped off the pace slightly over recent weeks, the Tractor Boys’ performances haven’t really changed.
I expect the pattern of this match to follow suit with both teams’ matches of late. Ipswich will probably dominate in terms of territory and hots. Kieran McKenna’s men are highly likely, in my mind, to finish the match ahead on xG, which should hopefully convert to a home win.
Boreham Wood v Accrington Stanley
One of three non-league sides left in this season’s FA Cup, Boreham Wood carry plenty of recent FA Cup pedigree. 13th in the current National League table, Luke Garrard’s side are the lowest ranked team left in the competition, and are making their third consecutive appearance in the Third Round Proper. Last season, their run to the Fifth Round included victories at home to then-League One AFC Wimbledon and away to then-Championship AFC Bournemouth, eventually ending at the hands of Everton at Goodison Park. Among the standouts in Boreham Wood’s practical line-up are goalkeeper Nathan Ashmore, Sheffield United loanee Zak Brunt, and strikers Tyrone Marsh and Lee Ndlovu.
At their Meadow Park home during this Third Round Proper weekend, Boreham Wood will sense an opportunity to progress against struggling Accrington Stanley. Only goal difference is keeping Stanley above the third tier drop zone, with John Coleman’s in desperate need of league victories. A 1-0 win over Cambridge United is their only 3-point haul in the league since the 1st October. Hit by injuries throughout the campaign, and now set to see a spell without both creative midfielder Joe Pritchard and lively right-wing-back Mitchell Clark, Accrington have spent far too long this season having to deploy a pair of auxiliary strikers in Shaun Whalley and Tommy Leigh. Coleman’s hope will be that Brentford loanee Aaron Pressley can be the answer after arriving on loan this January window, and he will need to be supported by the midfield pair of Ethan Hamilton and Liam Coyle, alongside the returning wide man Sean McConville.
This feels a case of Déjà vu for Boreham Wood. This time last season, the Wood saw off a struggling League One side at home to progress to the Fourth Round. 12 months later, Luke Garrard’s side have been presented with the same opportunity and could take advantage of it with Accrington’s priorities likely to be elsewhere in 2023.
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