Cheltenham Town v Barnsley
On Tuesday night, Cheltenham Town did what they have been doing across the season. Picking up crucial occasional wins that have kept them away from serious trouble. The 2-1 midweek win at Cambridge United, which included goals from midfielders Elliot Bonds and James Olayinka, was the Robins’ first of 2023 and only their third league victory since the start of December. Questions have come the way of Wade Elliott and his team on multiple occasions, concerns rising around the lack of positive results, and they continue to be answered with key wins in key moments. Cheltenham’s variation of a 3-5-2 and 3-4-1-2 formation has limited goalscoring ability compared to most League One sides. Top scorer Alfie May and new Irish striker Aiden Keena offer promise though when they are able to stretch opposition defences.
Barnsley manager Michael Duff this weekend returns to his old stomping ground. His Tykes side have certainly been built in the image of the system that brought him excellent success at Cheltenham Town. A 5-3-2 is based around the solid spine of Liam Kitching, Mads Juel Andersen and Burnley loanee Bobby Thomas. Wing-backs Nicky Cadden and Jordan Williams look great fits for providing the width and dynamism Duff’s football demands. They are aided further by the technical ability that the likes of Herbie Kane, Adam Phillips and Luca Connell provide in midfield. Jon Russell, a January addition from Huddersfield Town, adds greater size and physicality to that central unit if preferred. Barnsley’s weakest unit has been strikers across the season, with none of their frontline yet to hit double figures for the season. With Max Watters suspended, the pair of Devante Cole and James Norwood should lead the line, having scored seven and six in League One respectively this season.
Though Barnsley do not possess one of the league’s leading strikeforces, the overall cohesion and quality in Michael Duff’s side sees them a prime candidate to finish the season inside the third tier play-off places. Needing a strong run of form to keep ahead of the chasing pack, the Tykes are on a run of four wins and one draw in their last five matches, scoring at least once in each. Should the game go to type and the stronger Tykes control possession across the match, there is the opportunity for Cheltenham to score on the break and leave both sides with at least one goal to their name come full-time. Cheltenham Town did just this in an eventful 3-2 defeat at home to Derby County last month, it could be something similar here.
Wycombe Wanderers v Bolton Wanderers
Though many may fancy the current top six in League One to remain in place come the end of the season, there can be no doubt that Wycombe Wanderers look the most capable of breaking into that group.
Even despite losing top scorer and star forward Anis Mehmeti during the January window, Gareth Ainsworth have been able to continue fine form. The Chairboys have won each of their last four matches, including a 3-2 win last weekend over play-off side Derby County, and have won nine of their last 13 league matches. A makeshift defence, often formed from full-backs in auxiliary centre-back roles, hasn’t held Wycombe back. Lewis Wing continues to be influential in midfield alongside Josh Scowen. Sam Vokes is a formidable presence leading the line. Garath McCleary, now 35, has his gametime managed by Ainsworth but brings undoubtedly attacking quality every time he steps foot onto the pitch.
For the second time in a row at Adams Park, Wycombe Wanderers have the chance to demonstrate their top six credentials against a current play-off side. Bolton Wanderers are in fine form themselves, having won each of their last five matches and having lost just once across their last 12 league fixtures. The Trotters are buzzing further from a pair of consecutive 5-0 wins, first away at Peterborough United and then at home to Milton Keynes Dons. The two games saw a hat-trick for top scorer Dion Charles, as well as three goals across both matches for towering centre-back Ricardo Santos. His CB partners Luke Mbete and Eoin Toal also netted in the MK Dons win, with starting wing-backs Declan John and Gethin Jones influential across both matches on the left and right respectively.
The game of the weekend in League One is a chance for both Wycombe Wanderers and Bolton Wanderers to again showcase their ability to the rest of the division. Three points off the play-off places, Wycombe have high standards to keep if they want to break into that top six come the end of the season. The Chairboys have a serious challenge however against the form side in the league’s current play-off places, riding high on the back of scoring 10 goals in just two games and not losing to a team outside the top six since the 10th December. Bolton fans are wondering about the possibility of automatics right now, win this one and they might be wondering about it even more.
Plymouth v Fleetwood Town
Plymouth Argyle are silencing their doubters at the top of the League One table with just 15 matches remaining. The Pilgrims have an eight-point cushion on third-placed Bolton Wanderers heading into the weekend’s action, with Ipswich Town’s drop-off continuing.
The market still does not rate Steven Schumacher’s side as much as some of their challengers, but they are making light work of that by blowing teams away with their attacking firepower. Finn Azaz’ return from injury has helped them deal with the loss of Morgan Whittaker and evolve as we approach the final stretch.
Fleetwood Town beat Peterborough United 1-0 in midweek to claim back-to-back wins in the third tier, but they lost the shot count 14-5 and on the whole are trending as a lower mid table side at this stage of the campaign. Argyle have won 14 of their 15 home league games this season and are priced up at a backable price once again.
The Cod Army are organised defensively, but could get pinned in having been slipping towards the relegation battle before their recent upturn. Adam Randell and Niall Ennis are likely to miss out for the hosts, while Mickel Miller is not far anyway from a comeback.
Sheffield Wednesday v MK Dons
Sheffield Wednesday are comfortable favourites to win the league title, partly down to the market not yet taking to Argyle, and they should be confident of taking maximum points at home to relegation-threatened Milton Keynes Dons. The Dons are just one point above the drop and lost 5-0 to Bolton Wanderers in midweek. The market has looked fondly on their poor showings this season, and therefore Wednesday are probably not as short as they would be against another towards the bottom end.
For example, they went off at around 1.33 last weekend against Morecambe who have just one point fewer than the Dons having played a game less. Mark Jackson’s men have picked up three wins in their last ten, but two of them were against rock bottom Forest Green Rovers and the other versus an out-of-form Bristol Rovers. Mallik Wilks, Lee Gregory and Jack Hunt missed out in midweek through injury, while the visitors will be without Josh Kayode, Anthony Stewart, Ethan Robson and Dean Lewington. Nathan Holland did return from the bench in midweek on the positive side for the visitors.
Derby County v Charlton
Charlton Athletic got over last weekend’s 2-1 defeat to Fleetwood Town with a 1-0 victory at Forest Green Rovers in midweek, though the performance was not wholly convincing, which does not come as too much of a surprise given the off-field chaos in South London. Derby County have picked up just one point from their last two matches having been frustrated by Lincoln City to a 1-1 scoreline in midweek, off the back of a 3-2 loss at Wycombe Wanderers.
The Rams are in a good place in terms of the fitness of their squad and should be able to breach the Addicks’ leaky backline. The visitors have only kept a clean sheet in six of 30 league encounters so far this season, 20%, and despite their central defensive partnership of Lucas Ness and Ryan Inniss improving in recent weeks, David McGoldrick, James Collins and Lewis Dobbin offer a step up in calibre.
Todd Kane and Mandela Egbo are injured, while Miles Leaburn is yet to return from a hip issue, with Michael Hector making his debut for the club at Forest Green on Tuesday.
Ipswich Town v Forest Green Rovers
The Green are looking stronger under Duncan Ferguson, but only marginally.
Portman Road is one of the most intimidating grounds to go to in the third tier, and a positive atmosphere should be maintained despite the team suffering a drop-off in results, with this being their fourth and most promising season since relegation from the Championship. Massimo Luongo and Lee Evans will likely miss out for the Tractor Boys, while Tyler Onyango has been sent back to Everton from FGR for a scan and the rest of his season may be under threat.
The Tractor Boys have so many options in the attacking third, and the likes of George Hirst and Nathan Broadhead could be reintroduced to the starting XI after Kieran McKenna’s men drew a blank at Bristol Rovers in midweek. After dropping points in their last three League One encounters, this match has a similar feel to their 4-0 win over Morecambe in late January, where they were four up at the break, as a poor side travels to face an angry Ipswich who are looking to make up for lost time.
I am tipping goals but with the ideology being that Ipswich can make the scoreline very comfortable.
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