Accrington Stanley v Charlton Athletic

Our League One weekend kicks off at Charlton Athletic who stopped the rot in a hard-earned goalless draw with Sunderland last weekend with the Addicks having previously lost five on the bounce in the league. However, in isolation, they were all difficult matches against sides competing towards the top end in Bolton Wanderers, Wigan Athletic, Milton Keynes Dons, Oxford United and Sheffield Wednesday.

Jayden Stockley has returned from injury, Corey Blackett-Taylor and Conor Washington are close to a return and the clean sheet will have done wonders for belief and confidence. Sam Lavelle is getting back up to speed and though they have been toothless in front of goal of late, they do have capable players. 

Accrington have conceded two or more goals in all of their last four and have lost three of four, they are too short as favourites here. Charlton do not have a lot to play for, but there is still pressure with the manager and players playing for contracts and a top half finish is still achievable.

For me, there has been an overreaction in price, to Charlton’s losing streak and a chance to find value with an Addicks-based play.

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Burton Albion v Fleetwood Town

There have been a lot of poor teams in League One this season, all experiencing particularly desperate runs, Fleetwood Town are enduring one of those at the moment. If Stephen Crainey’s men do not improve they are destined for relegation.

We have successfully opposed the Cod Army in their last two fixtures and their trip to Burton Albion provides an opportunity to do the same. A lot was made of Fleetwood’s January business but losing Jay Matete, James Hill and Callum Morton has hurt them significantly.

Fleetwood have created just 0.42 expected goals (xG) for on average of their last six league games, as per Wyscout, a horrendous process and they have only scored more than once in two of 14. Burton have lost their last two, but against Oxford United and Sheffield Wednesday, they do not have loads to play for but back at home, Jimmy-Floyd Hasselbaink will not be resting on his laurels. 

The Cod Army are really struggling and have a number of players on the treatment table that are limiting Crainey’s options. The Brewers are rightful favourites but due to a potential motivation decrease, I am going to be a little more cautious.

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Doncaster Rovers v Gillingham

Sheffield Wednesday are on fire and will be optimistic about their automatic promotion hopes, despite battling it out to climb into the top six since the early knockings of the campaign. Darren Moore’s men have won 13, drawn seven and lost four since early October, producing close to top two form to drag themselves into the promotion picture.

Comfortably the game of the weekend in League One, Doncaster Rovers host Gillingham in a cliche relegation six pointer. The occasion could get the better of both sides who have been very poor in front of goal all season. Gillingham have seen under 2.5 goals in seven of eight since Neil Harris took the reins and have only found the net in one of their last four.

Donny are averaging just 0.76 xGF over their last seven games, all pointing towards a low-margin game. Morecambe, AFC Wimbledon and Fleetwood Town are all on terrible runs and are almost offering up survival for Gills or Donny if they can go on a run, despite consistently turning out lacklustre displays this season.

A point is not a great result for either side, and that could make for some interesting passages in the closing exchanges but a low margin game certainly looks on the cards at the Keepmoat Stadium. Doncaster are more likely to throw caution to the wind with only nine games left to save themselves, but an unders play in a match between the two lowest-scoring sides in League One seems too good to ignore.

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Sheffield Wednesday v Cambridge United

Learning lessons from last weekend Lincoln City are a team to avoid for the rest of the season, it has been puzzling to see Michael Appleton’s men competing at the bottom end looking at their squad, and they lived up to their potential to beat Sheffield Wednesday to scupper us.

However, one game does not make them a bad team and Darren Moore’s men will be even more fired up to break back into the play-offs. The Owls have received fitness boosts on Harlee Dean, Nathaniel Mendez-Laing, Olamide Shodipo and Josh Windass and they won the xG battle at Lincoln, 1.63 – 1.09 despite losing 3-1. 

Wednesday have won the xG battle in all of their last nine and are still one to watch in the promotion race. Cambridge United have not got a lot to play for after an impressive season adjusting to the level, Mark Bonner’s men have picked up just one point from their last three and have drawn a blank in their last two. 

They are very short but I am happy to continue to back the Owls’ play-off bid and especially in front of the demanding Hillsborough crowd.

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Ipswich Town v Portsmouth

Ipswich Town have been incredible at the back lately, keeping seven clean sheets in the last eight with Janoi Donacien, Luke Woolfenden and George Edmundson building a strong defensive trio. Portsmouth have scored a whopping 23 goals in their last eight games but have been on an unsustainable hot streak in their finishing. 

Danny Cowley’s men have been open at the back in the same stretch and star man Marcus Harness remains out through suspension. If the Tractor Boys can handle Pompey and limit their chances in the attacking third, then the visitors are not set up well enough to contain them. 

Ipswich have been very strong at home this season and have been on automatic promotion pushing form since Kieran McKenna arrived in the dugout. This is a huge game in the race for the play-offs and Pompey have been on a good run, but it is clear that the Tractor Boys have the more solid underlying process and they have the quality in the squad to establish firm control on the game.

I am going to be a little cautious once again to keep a 0-0 draw onside, because Ipswich are so much better at the back than they are devastating going forward, even though they are certainly rightful favourites to take all three points.

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