Crewe v Bolton

We have had a lot of joy opposing Crewe recently, successfully getting against the Railwaymen three times out of three attempts this month and it is very much a case of rinse and repeat at Gresty Road. David Artell’s men have won one and lost 11 in their last 12 League One outings and are effectively waiting for confirmation of their relegation to League Two.

Bolton Wanderers have been superb since the January transfer window, winning nine, drawing two and losing three of their last 14 matches, and Kyle Dempsey and Gethin Jones could all be available for the weekend. Ian Evatt has so many attacking options at his disposal with Dion Charles, Dapo Afolayan, Kieran Sadlier and Amadou Bakayoko all capable of playing towards the top end of League One.

The Trotters will be desperate to bounce back, winless in their last two, and playing Crewe provides the perfect opportunity to do so and to continue their positive end to the season.

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Fleetwood Town v Doncaster Rovers

It is very puzzling to see Fleetwood Town at 1.8 to win a game against anyone and that provides some value in Doncaster Rovers this weekend. We have successfully opposed the Cod Army four times, out of four attempted, this month and, with some more caution, I am looking to do so again this weekend.

They were competitive before conceding late again to lose 1-0 at Wycombe Wanderers in midweek but conceded 2.01 xGA. Stephen Crainey’s men are now winless in 12 and will be feeling the pressure when they arrive at Highbury Stadium. Donny have looked like relegation fodder all season, despite some patches of hope, and will relish the opportunity to cut the gap to Fleetwood to just one point if they can pull off a victory. 

Donny have won at Milton Keynes Dons and Sunderland since the turn of the year and will be harnessing those memories to turn up in one of the biggest games of the season. The shackles are off where they are firmly on with the hosts, and in a price play there is no chance Fleetwood win this game as often as the odds suggest.

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Rotherham United v Shrewsbury Town

Shrewsbury Town had the rub off the green in their 5-0 win over Morecambe in midweek. The Shrews won a penalty from a debatable handball from a hopeful long range shot very early in the second half. Luke Leahy stuck it away to kill off the game as a contest and then some stat padding came into play for the hosts. They scored five from 2.01 xG and built a nine point cushion on the relegation zone in the process.

With that cushion feeling very comfortable at this stage of the season, there is a chance that momentum takes a hit for their trip to the league leaders this weekend. Ollie Rathbone and Dan Barlaser face late fitness tests for Rotherham United, but Paul Warne’s system is so ingrained in the squad over years of work, their potential replacements are in a great position to slot in seamlessly. 

Wigan Athletic’s upturn in form is threatening the Millers’ title bid and that should spur on Warne’s men to get past a poor Shrews side, who have struggled on the road all season.

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Gillingham v Sheffield Wednesday

Gillingham missed an opportunity at The Valley in midweek. Neil Harris’ men took on a very low on confidence Charlton Athletic side, who were winless in seven, and made them look a lot better than they have been in a 1-0 defeat. Sheffield Wednesday too suffered a disappointing result when they were held to a 1-1 draw at home to Accrington Stanley, the Owls will be very dangerous in hoping to bounce back and gain on the likes of Plymouth Argyle and Sunderland above them.

Wednesday have looked destined to finish in the play-offs for a while now and created 2.00 xGF despite the frustrating draw versus Stanley. Gills have only scored more than one once in ten League One outings under Harris, their game plan at The Valley was to sit back and keep it tight, conceding in the first half scuppered that and they struggled to come out of their shell to come back into the game. 

Wednesday are much better than Charlton in their current guise and should have enough quality, from the bench if needed, to break down the low block at Priestfield Stadium.

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Cheltenham Town v AFC Wimbledon

Wimbledon are winless in 18 under Mark Robinson, the longest winless run of any side in the EFL this season, however, they are not that bad. The Dons played some excellent attacking football at the beginning of the season and it is their best form of defence ahead of their trip to Cheltenham Town.

The Robins could see an improved attendance due to hangers on from the horse racing festival, but they have very little to play for in League One, Michael Duff has overseen an excellent season acclimatising to third-tier level and will be hoping to entertain in the final stretch.

Wimbledon have scored just three goals from 6.6 xGF in their last eight matches and Fleetwood and Morecambe have been doing them huge favours in the last month or so in their slide towards the bottom four. Cheltenham have seen both teams score in four of six, over 2.5 goals in five of six and conceded 2.58 xGA to Morecambe last time out. There is an element of unpredictability due to the Robins’ league position so a goals angle looks the most sensible way into this one.

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