Woking v Boreham Wood
A game between two sides whose managers would rather win 1-0 than 4-3 and I’m expecting the game to reflect that.
There are two elements to this selection. The first is the statistics. Woking have seen over half of their league matches finish with one team having failed to score. One side has failed to score in seven of their 13 league matches against top half sides. Over their last ten matches, they have conceded around 1xG per game, yet they have conceded in all but one, and that was against Scunthorpe United pre-takeover. They now have Luke Wilkinson, Rohan Ince and Dan Moss fit again – they will be well to change that.
On the flip side, despite Boreham Wood’s defensive issues at times this season, they have seen one side fail to score in over half of their away matches and kept clean sheets in their last three. The additions of David Agbontohoma and Chris Bush have been huge helps and Jamal Fyfield returned to the squad last time out.
Stylistically, these sides are all about earning the right to play rather than turning up with the intent to express themselves. They like to play in low blocks, squeeze the pitch and turn the opposition backline, moving their forwards into wide areas to stretch the game. Both sides are well set to deal with balls into the box.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Solihull Moors
A game between two mid-table sides whose current fortunes aren’t matching the ambitions of owners, managers, and fans.
Daryl McMahon claimed he had no pride in his side’s midweek performance at Oldham Athletic, a game they lost 4-2 having been level on 89 minutes. McMahon has changed shape recently in a bid to coax stronger performances from his side, but it hasn’t worked, losing three on the bounce.
They are due to be involved in games with more goals, their last nine games seeing an overall xG of 28 with only 19 scored. They have conceded 1.7xG on average of their last 11 and 1.58xG in their last six at home, four of those coming against bottom half sides.
Solihull Moors have been in the same boat and while their fortunes are likely to turn following some key arrivals, they had to come from behind against out-of-luck York City in a 3-2 victory in midweek. One team has scored at least two goals in their last 11 matches and both teams have scored in nine of those games.
Andrew Dallas has made it into double figures for goals and assists while Mark Beck scored his first goal for the club on Tuesday. They continue to have issues at centre-half, however, with Callum Howe the only one they have available, leading to a change in system.
Telford United v AFC Fylde
These sides sit in polar opposite positions of the table at the moment, with Fylde fighting for the title – being a mere 3 points from the top with a game in hand. Meanwhile, Telford sit bottom of the table with a considerable 10-point gap from safety. Whilst they need to scrape points any way they can, I doubt this is where they’ll get them – which is why I’m backing Fylde to bring home all three points here.
A clear issue for Telford is seeing games out, with 6 draws in their last 9 games. Whilst this won’t be what they’re looking for, it isn’t too bad for bottom of the league. It’s seeming like they’re playing a cautious style of football which looks to not lose, as opposed to winning.
Whilst this may work well against sides struggling in mid-table, I doubt it will have an effect on a ruthless side like Fylde. Telford have played 15 games at home this season and have won 2, the worst home record in the league. I don’t believe the home advantage will play too well into their hands here.
In contrast to this, Fylde have been on fire recently going 7 games without a loss – winning 6 of them. Their most prolific player Nick Haughton will most likely be starting here, the current joint-top scorer in the National League North with 15 goals in 26 games. It is arguable that games like this will allow him to jump ahead in that race.
Mo Faal has also played brilliantly in their attacking lines recently, the threats come from all over the final third within this side. I can see them penetrating the home side heavily. The significance of the game must also be considered, a win here would allow them to go level on points with top of the league.
King’s Lynn Town v Chester
King’s Lynn currently sit top of the National League North, 3 points ahead of Fylde although their Northern challengers have a game in hand. They cannot afford to drop points anywhere. However, this will not be the easiest of games with Chester sitting in the playoff spots looking to strengthen their position.
The Linnets have dropped points in both of their last two games, with a 1-0 loss to Buxton where they finished the game with 9 men and then a 2-2 draw away to Spennymoor. It’s not guaranteed that they win this one based on their current form and intensity of the fixture schedule.
However, with the way Chester are playing, I also certainly wouldn’t bank on them winning. Despite sitting 6th in the table, they haven’t won a game since December 7.
Despite not winning in over a month, both teams have scored in all 6 of their last games. You can expect Chester to go into this one knowing that the Linnets have been struggling, and looking to capitalise on that.
If they manage to score first the home side will be forced to throw everything into the game due to the significance of maintaining a lead in the title race. These sides last met in September which saw a 3-3 six goal thriller – I expect something similar here.
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