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Scotland v Hungary
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Kick Off: Sunday 23rd June at 20:00
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Watch Live: BBC One
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Competition: Euro 2024
Scotland gave themselves a realistic chance to progress beyond the group stage of a major tournament for the first time by drawing 1-1 with Switzerland on Wednesday but need maximum points against Hungary in Frankfurt to realise their dream.
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After a wretched opening display against Germany, Steve Clarke’s side bounced back well against the Swiss, but the loss of a cheap goal consigned them to a point.
Hungary, meanwhile, need a handsome victory and results elsewhere to go their way to stand any chance of progression.
McTominay & McGinn to have 1+ Shots on Target each
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Scotland v Hungary Best Bets
While the outcome of this match is difficult to predict, what is likely is a blood-and-thunder affair with a significant card count. Neither of these teams have anything to lose, so expect a committed clash high on endeavour and commitment making over 4.5 cards an attractive prospect.
Andras Schafer (2.0) and Attila Fiola (2.1) are both a good price to commit multiple fouls, having already done so in both matches and at 1.2 and 1.22 respectively to give away just one free kick are strong options to boost a bet builder.
Szoboszlai was also showing some worrying signs of life against Switzerland from a Scotland perspective, and at odds-against to score or assist Hungary’s key man offers worthwhile value here.
📂 Scotland v Hungary Cheat Sheet
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You can find Scotland v Hungary match stats on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
📊 Scotland Form and Stats
Scotland might have been much improved against Switzerland, but their recent record still makes for bleak reading ahead of a match they must win. Across their last 11 fixtures, they have managed just one solitary victory, which came against Gibraltar. Steve Clarke’s side have, however, lost only one of their last four and should be far more confident after a more positive midweek display.
Having failed to muster a single shot or corner against Germany, they offered 12 shots (three on target) and five corners against the Swiss. It was notable that in midweek, Scotland won 65.8% of their aerial duels compared to Hungary’s 53.3% against the same opponents, and it may be that this is an area they will target, especially from set pieces.
Scott McTominay was the difference maker once again for Clarke’s men. After scoring seven in qualifying, he was ultimately credited with a heavily deflected opening goal against Switzerland. He had a team-high four shots.
Scotland’s other talisman in recent years has typically been John McGinn, but after a slow end to the Premier League season, his level has been below his usual. He is yet to have a shot of any kind.
Meanwhile, defensive demons remain, particularly down the right, where Anthony Ralston is a real weak point. His loose pass led to a well taken Xherdan Shaqiri equaliser in the last game. Scotland’s issues will get worse in defence with the absence of Kieran Tierney confirmed.
Although Scotland have committed fewer fouls than their opponents in five successive internationals, they have contrived to pick up at least three cards in three of these games. They also have at least three cards in five of their last nine competitive outings, which is on offer at 2.3 here.
📊 Hungary Form and Stats
A couple of two-goal defeats leave Hungary needing a minor miracle to progress. While a team has gone through with three points in each of the two previous occasions this format has been played in the European Championship, a big negative goal difference counts against them.
Like Scotland, they were limp in their opening fixture as they lost 3-1 to Switzerland, but they were much more vibrant against Germany. Although they lost 2-0, they generated 1 xG and only conceded 1.5 xG. It was a closer game than the scoreline suggested.
One of the reasons for the Hungarian improvement was Dominik Szoboszlai taking hold of the game. He led his team in virtually every meaningful category in qualifying from goals (joint with Barnabas Varga) and assists to shots, shots on target, fouls won and even yellow cards.
He had three shots and one on target against Germany, both joint team-high figures, and he touched the ball a team-high 52 times. The key for Hungary will be getting him involved, which they will likely do by giving him the freedom to roam. Scotland policed Switzerland’s Granit Xhaka by having McTominay sit deep to mark him; pinning down Szoboszlai promises to be trickier.
Defensively, they have had issues. Although they kept three clean sheets in four friendlies in the run-up to the tournament, they have conceded in seven straight competitive matches and have given up 3.8 xG in their two fixtures since arriving in Germany.
Hungary, like their opponents, are picking up 2.5 cards per game. Like Scotland, their foul count is relatively modest. They are averaging 9.5 per match, with Attila Fiola (five) and Andras Schafer (four) accounting for almost half of them.
⚔️ Scotland v Hungary Head-to-Head
This will be the first-ever competitive meeting between Scotland and Hungary as well as just the third since 1988.
Scotland won the previous match between these nations, which was a March 2018 friendly, thanks to a goal from Matt Phillips early in the second half.
Peter Gulacsi, who will keep goal for the Hungarians, stopped a Charlie Mulgrew penalty as an inexperienced Scotland side, that included Jack Hendry, Scott McKenna, John McGinn, Callum McGregor and Andy Robertson, claimed victory.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy Robson.
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