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Southampton v Plymouth
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Kick Off: Friday 29th December at 18:00
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Competition: Championship
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Football
Friday night sees a full slate of EFL action, and our experts have been all over the televised fixture between Southampton and Plymouth on Friday night. Andy’s Bet Club has got all the EFL Christmas and New Year action covered in our EFL betting tips, EFL accumulator tips AND bet builder stats – everything you need for Friday night football.
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The South Coast roads of the A35 and A31 will be flooded with the Green Army making their way to Southampton for one of their closest away matches of the season, albeit still over 6 hours round trip.
The Pilgrims’ away following have found wins on the road pretty hard to come by. Indeed, they haven’t seen an away win in the second tier since 3rd April 2010. However, the last two away days have demonstrated how Plymouth have the fighting spirit and quality to get results at this level.
However, this is going to be one of the toughest away games of the season. Southampton have extended their unbeaten run in the league to 16, and, frighteningly, they seem to be getting more ruthless, especially at home.
Southampton have won their last four home matches to an aggregate of 12-0 with Kyle Bartley being the last opposition player to notch at St. Mary’s. This run has seen Saints rise to 3rd in the table, and become the chief competitor to Ipswich for the second promotion spot.
There are lots of angles to consider when putting together a bet builder for this fixture. To do this we have the aid of our fantastic cheat sheet and with some extra analysis in certain aspects of the match, there are some excellent angles to add to a bet builder.
Southampton v Plymouth Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
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You can find Southampton v Plymouth match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
⚽️ Match stats: Southampton control matches to reduce opposition chances
As per the Russell Martin philosophy of football, Southampton control the ball more than any other team in the Championship. They have had 70% or more possession in 10 of their 24 matches, and have the highest average possession in the league by a distance.
Whilst this is a tactic that we have seen with Martin in previous jobs at MK Dons and Swansea, this is the first time that the quality of the players at his disposal has been so high, and that is now helping with the finishing touches.
The quality of forwards on the pitch for Southampton mean that there is a bit of effectiveness as the end product to the build up and possession.
Plymouth have a more direct style, not long ball, but wanting to move at a faster pace to get the ball forwards. Under Ryan Lowe and then Steven Schumacher that style has developed to a point where every player has a clear responsibility in the side.
How this works out from a statistical point of view in the match stats is that Plymouth get a great number of final product, but lose out in passing, possession, and defensive stats.
Southampton have the more impressive game plan, individuals, and squad, and the performance data outlines this effectively, regardless of the size of sample used.
Predictions:
⚽ Southampton to win @ 1.28
⚽ Southampton to win to nil @ 2.25
⚽ Southampton (-1 handicap) @ 1.85
⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.85
🎯 Shooting stats: Plymouth top half for shots taken, but Saints restrict their opponents effectively
To say that Plymouth are bottom half and supposedly a club in a relegation battle they are certainly no mugs in giving themselves opportunities to score. They have a top half shot ratio and actually still have the highest shot on target percentage in the league. They have been a historically effective team going forwards.
As one may expect though, because Argyle are still a bottom half side, that they also concede a high number of shots as well.
Saints, for their part, are in the top six for both shots taken and preventing shots against them. There is more evidence there for Southampton being one of the most effective teams in the league.
In terms of individual players on each side, Carlos Alcaraz is actually the greatest shot threat for Southampton, although he is not expected to start tonight, having not started a game since December 2.
Alcaraz, Ryan Fraser, and Stuart Armstrong are all decent value in the shot markets, but wait for line-ups to be announced before backing Alcaraz or Stuart Armstrong.
For Plymouth, their shot-taking is generally lower away from home. Morgan Whittaker is one of the league’s most frequent shooters, but is well found in the market. Outside of Whittaker, Finn Azaz is worth looking at.
Predictions:
⚽ Plymouth to have 3+ shots on target @ 1.53
⚽ Finn Azaz to have 1+ shot on target @ 2.37
🚩 Corner stats: Plymouth a high corner conceding team on the road with Southampton home dominance too
Southampton’s dominance in possession of the ball obviously helps them to generate a good territory advantage in games, which usually translates into a dominance of the corner count.
Indeed, Martin’s team are one of the most dominant corner winners in the league. Their home record means that they average almost double the number of corners than their opponents.
Plymouth are pretty reliable in their conceding of corners also. They concede, on average, eight corners per away match, with only Blackburn Rovers conceding more on their travels.
This doesn’t necessarily mean anything in terms of the quality of their performances away from home, Blackburn for example actually have the sixth-highest away points tally, but it does mean that the line for Southampton corners in this match is very high. Saints are unbackable to have the most corners at just 1.11, but could be worth backing elsewhere.
Predictions:
⚽ Over 7.5 Southampton corners @ 1.91
🟨 Cards stats: High card count expected as Saints lead the way in yellow card collection
Southampton as a team currently lead the way in the Championship in yellow card collection. This is very interesting because, as we have discussed in this preview, Saints also control the possession of the ball more than any other Championship team.
This would suggest that the fouls that Southampton are making are generally ones that are serious enough to warrant a card. The other thing that Saints have been very good at has been sharing the cards around between them. Central midfield has been a key area for cards though, Will Smallbone, Shea Charles, and Flynn Downes all have five or more.
Plymouth have also collected a decent number of cards, so it could be a good angle for the match in general.
If Mickel Miller is a starter in this match then he has been exceptionally prolific so far this season, collecting six yellows in only 8.2 90’s. He is not expected to start but is certainly one to bear in mind if he does feature from the beginning here.
Predictions:
⚽ Southampton to receive the most cards @ 3.0
⚽ Will Smallbone to be shown a card @ 5.50
⚽ Over 4.5 match cards @ 1.91
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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