Croatia were very impressive in their last friendly against Portugal, registering 7 shots on target. They also managed 5 in their most recent match against the Spanish and 5 away to the Dutch in their Nations League games last year. Spain conceded 6 against Brazil and 5 against Colombia in their March friendlies which opens the door for Unai Simon to be kept busy in Spain’s goal.

5 of the last 6 encounters between the two nations have been level at half time and their last meeting was a 0-0 draw in 90 minutes. With this being the first game of the Euros and a relatively short transition time between the end of the season, we expect this game to have a cagey start and be low on the goal count, which points towards the potential of a close first half.

Looking at Spain’s recent games against big opponents, they registered 20 fouls against Brazil, 15 against Colombia, 24 against Italy and crucially, 18 against this Croatian side just last year. Persistent tactical fouling is a feature of the Spanish approach while pressing high up the pitch and all signs point to 11 or more Spanish fouls in the game.

Marcelo Brozovic was booked in his last game for Croatia against Portugal and has picked up 3 bookings in the last 5 games where he’s played more than 60 minutes. He’s unlikely to be subbed in this game unless he’s injured, while Spain’s technical midfield and passing triangles, as well as Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal on the flanks, could lead to some persistent tactical fouling. In that case, Brozovic averaged over a foul per game in qualifying and committed 2 fouls against the Spanish the last time he faced them.

Following on nicely is Croatia’s most persistent fouler with a huge 3.08 fouls per 90 minutes. He has committed 3 fouls in each of his last 4 games, despite only playing 90 minutes in total across his previous 2 matches. Whether he plays as a central focal point or wide of a front 3, he’ll be harrying to press the Spanish defence and he may have spells where he relies on scraps.

Moving away from the fouls, Ruiz has hit at least 3 shots in 5 of his last 6 games for Spain. With Croatia likely to try and soak up pressure by defending rigidly and looking to hit on the counter, Spain may look for an option from midfield to unlock the door, and Ruiz could be the answer.